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MESO

πŸ₯ Healthcare

Mesoblast Limited

Conservative #1076Aggressive #585Moderate RiskLow 25F↑ 22pt
$16.91+2.36%
Day High$17.16
Day Low$16.74
Volume0.2M
Mkt Cap$2.2B
52W Low $1052W High $22
Market Cap
$2.2B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
191.4%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
-16.1%
Profit Margin
-593.9%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.21

Why This Score

MESO scores 31.4 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (15.6%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -11.0 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, MESO would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score31.4
Fundamental Score35.5
ML Score47.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
26.9
6 Month
30.1
Primary
1 Year
31.6

Quality Assessment

F
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $2.2B biotech/pharma β€” likely single-product revenue with binary risk
Speculative Classification
Anomalous margin data β€” extreme values suggest one-time events or accounting irregularities.
Conservative score reduced by 4 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
30
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
62
Grade Blow dollar volume
Base
33.6
SHAP
+2.1
Factors
-0.1
Conviction
-2.4
Divergence
-1.8
Final
31.4
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)53.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)61.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)45.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-16.5% to -10.3%
Medium-term
-22.0% to -13.1%
Long-term
-27.4% to -15.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs β†’ ML Score: 47

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside-30.7%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score30.2/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 β€” Advancing
12M Momentum-0.0%
6M Momentum+0.2%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-23.3%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.14)
Relative Strength vs Sector-27.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.2)
Momentum Quality-0.024
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P94
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P40
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P47
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1Οƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 62 relative to sector peers62/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 40th percentileP40
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.1pt (features align with model priorities)β€”
Blend: 91% fund (62.2) + 9% ML (38.6) + SHAP(+2.1) = 62.2β€”
Factor quality: -0.1pt (multi-factor composite)β€”
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 15.6%. Max drawdown 15% (-2.7 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -4.0 points ($2.2B market cap)-4.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -2.4pt (conviction=25)β€”
Divergence penalty: -1.8pt (fund 22pt higher)β€”
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade F: assessed. Score adjusted by -30 pointsGrade F
Quality concern: Non-operating gain: net margin (-593.9%) exceeds operating margin (-639.5%) by 46pp β€” likely one-time item; High accrual ratio (-39.1%) β€” earnings quality concern; Pipeline concentration: $2.2B biotech/pharma β€” likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare β€” Rank #204 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
MESO31.4N/A191.4%-593.9%$2.2B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%β€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy11 analysts
Buy: 5Hold: 4Sell: 2
Price Target
$12consensus
Low $11Median $12High $12
-32.0% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Mesoblast Limited, a biopharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes allogeneic cellular medicines in the United States, Australia, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and Switzerland. The company offers products in the areas of cardiovascular, spine orthopedic disorder, oncology, hematology, and immune-mediated and inflammatory diseases. Its proprietary regenerative medicine technology platform is based on specialized cells known as mesenchymal lineage cells. The company's products under the Phase III clinical trials include remestemcel-L for the treatment of steroid refractory acute graft versus host disease, as well as acute respiratory distress syndrome due to COVID-19 infection; Rexlemestrocel-L to treat advanced chronic heart failure; and MPC-06-ID for chronic low back pain due to degenerative disc disease. It is also developing MPC-300-IV for the treatment of biologic refractory rheumatoid arthritis diabetic nephropathy. The company has strategic partnerships with Tasly Pharmaceutical Group to offer MPC-150-IM for heart failure and MPC-25-IC for heart attacks in China; JCR Pharmaceuticals Co. Ltd. for the treatment of wound healing in patients with epidermolysis bullosa; and GrΓΌnenthal to develops and commercializes cell therapy for the treatment of chronic low back pain. Mesoblast Limited was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.

CEO
Silviu Itescu
Employees
73
Beta
0.90
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
49.4
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-21.3%
High: $21.5
From 52W Low
+76%
Low: $9.61
Moving Averages
10-Day
$17.00
Below
20-Day
$17.10
Below
50-Day
$18.00
Below
200-Day
$15.40
Above
60-Day Support
$15.55
60-Day Resistance
$21.5
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 β€” AdvancingScore: 72/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+9.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+10.2%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.82x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%
Recent Gap UpRecent Gap Down

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2024Q1 2024
Revenue$7M$7M$2M$2M
Gross Profit$-16M$-16M$-2M$-2M
Operating Income$-34M$-34M$-21M$-21M
Net Income$-27M$-27M$-24M$-24M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.21$-0.21$-0.21$-0.21
Gross Margin-231.1%-231.1%-107.8%-107.8%
Operating Margin-489.5%-489.5%-1306.7%-1306.7%
Net Margin-386.0%-386.0%-1518.8%-1518.8%

Why This Stock

HealthcareRevenue growth 191.4%

Tradability FilterGrade B β€” 62/100Score impact: -13.4pt

Volume
52
221K avg/day
Dollar Vol
34
$4M/day
Float
94
85M shares
Mkt Cap
60
$2.2B
Range
100
124% spread
Composite Liquidity Score62/100
FDCBA
low dollar volume

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
66.5%
Outstanding Shares
128M
Bid-Ask Spread
124.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.