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63

HRMY

🏥 Healthcare

Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc.

Conservative #304Aggressive #347Moderate Risk
$29.05+3.05%
Day High$29.36
Day Low$27.77
Volume1.3M
Mkt Cap$1.7B
52W Low $2652W High $41
Market Cap
$1.7B
P/E Ratio
9.2
Sector avg: 41.9
Rev Growth
22.8%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
12.9%
Profit Margin
22.5%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.20

Why This Score

HRMY scores 62.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 24.9% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High net margin of 22.5%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 9.2x earnings, below the market average.
  • High conviction (84/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (12.5%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-2.0 points) applied. HRMY's rank of #304 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score62.6
Fundamental Score60.8
ML Score60.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
78.6
6 Month
87.8
Primary
1 Year
92.4

Quality Assessment

B
Quality Grade
Good quality — solid metrics, minor concerns possible
1 quality flag detected — see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $1.7B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
70
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
65
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
72
Grade B
Base
58.6
SHAP
+1.9
Factors
+1.1
Conviction
+1.1
Final
62.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

76AVG
Value84
Quality75
Growth72
Stability74
Investment74

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)81.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)50.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)84.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.2% to +1.2%
Medium-term
-7.8% to +1.8%
Long-term
-10.4% to +2.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 60

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score65.4/100
Target Upside+83.8%
Coverage13 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score69.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum-0.0%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+8.8%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.37)
Relative Strength vs Sector-18.0%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.5)
Momentum Quality+0.048
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
25%
Moderate — watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P73
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P96
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P98
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 61 relative to sector peers61/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 60th percentileP60
Blended score: 80% fundamental (61) + 20% ML (60) = 60.660.6
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 25% → 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade B
SHAP feature alignment: +1.9pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +1.1pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Risk Factors
Quality concern: Pipeline concentration: $1.7B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #37 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
HRMY62.69.222.8%22.5%$1.7B
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$19.6B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$17.9B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
ASND78.316.698.0%-31.7%$13.8B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$121.8B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.1B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.3B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$204.8B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$47.4B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$80.2B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$180.9B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$7.9B
Sector Average36.641.9161.5%-3292.7%

Company Overviewvia FMP

Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc., a commercial-stage pharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes therapies for patients with rare neurological disorders in the United States. Its product, WAKIX is a medication for the treatment of excessive daytime sleepiness in adult patients with narcolepsy. The company was formerly known as Harmony Biosciences II, Inc. and changed its name to Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. in February 2020. Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 2017 and is based in Plymouth Meeting, Pennsylvania.

CEO
Jeffrey Dayno
Employees
268
Beta
0.84
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
28.7
Oversold
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-28.9%
High: $40.87
From 52W Low
+13.8%
Low: $25.52
Moving Averages
10-Day
$32.00
Below
20-Day
$34.60
Below
50-Day
$36.30
Below
200-Day
$34.10
Below
60-Day Support
$25.9
60-Day Resistance
$40.87
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 18/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Transition signal: 3→4
Price vs 200 SMA
-14.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+3.93%
Rising
Volume Ratio
2.24x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
5
Confidence: 50%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$244M$239M$200M$185M
Gross Profit$175M$180M$162M$153M
Operating Income$39M$65M$48M$56M
Net Income$22M$51M$40M$46M
EPS (Diluted)$0.38$0.87$0.68$0.78
Gross Margin71.9%75.1%81.0%82.7%
Operating Margin15.8%27.3%24.0%30.4%
Net Margin9.2%21.2%19.8%24.7%

Why This Stock

HealthcareP/E ratio of 9.2Revenue growth 22.8%Profit margin 22.5%Earnings quality grade BValuation below sector median (P/E 9.2)

Tradability FilterGrade B — 72/100Score impact: +9.4pt

Volume
90
753K avg/day
Dollar Vol
80
$20M/day
Float
40
0K shares
Mkt Cap
51
$1.7B
Range
90
60% spread
Composite Liquidity Score72/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$25.09$45.2057.2%Wide
2022$31.54$62.0965.3%Wide
2023$18.61$55.6099.7%Wide
2024$28.14$41.6138.6%Wide
2025$25.52$40.9346.4%Wide
3-Year Range
99.7%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.15x dampening
weinstein declining

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
60.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.