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AUPH

๐Ÿฅ Healthcare

Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc.

Conservative #135Aggressive #174Low RiskMLโ†‘ 24pt
$13.97-3.19%
Day High$14.88
Day Low$13.61
Volume1.3M
Mkt Cap$1.8B
52W Low $752W High $17
Market Cap
$1.9B
P/E Ratio
25.4
Sector avg: 41.9
Rev Growth
34.0%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
107.4%
Profit Margin
29.3%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.21

Why This Score

AUPH scores 70.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 21.8% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High net margin of 29.3%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
Risk Factors
  • Above-average volatility (11.9%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-0.2 points) applied. AUPH's rank of #135 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score70.9
Fundamental Score70.4
ML Score54.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
77.6
6 Month
86.7
Primary
1 Year
91.3

Quality Assessment

B
Quality Grade
Good quality โ€” solid metrics, minor concerns possible
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $1.9B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
67
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
70
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
87
Grade A
Base
67.1
SHAP
+2.7
Factors
+1.3
Divergence
-0.2
Final
70.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

75AVG
Value56
Quality72
Growth100
Stability81
Investment65

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)79.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)84.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)84.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+14.8% to +21.5%
Medium-term
+21.5% to +31.5%
Long-term
+31.0% to +44.7%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 54

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score69.6/100
Target Upside+5.2%
Coverage14 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score67.3/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.8%
6M Momentum+0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+60.3%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.24)
Relative Strength vs Sector+54.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.697
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
3%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P78
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P18
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P84
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 70 relative to sector peers70/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 54th percentileP54
Blended score: 80% fundamental (70) + 20% ML (54) = 67.167.1
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 12% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade B
SHAP feature alignment: +2.7pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Divergence penalty: -0.2pt (ML 16pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Quality concern: Pipeline concentration: $1.9B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare โ€” Rank #17 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
AUPH70.925.434.0%29.3%$1.9B
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$19.6B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$17.9B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
ASND78.316.698.0%-31.7%$13.8B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$121.8B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.1B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.3B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$204.8B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$47.4B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$80.2B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$180.9B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$7.9B
Sector Average36.641.9161.5%-3292.7%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc., a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing and commercializing therapies to treat various diseases with unmet medical need in the United States and internationally. The company offers LUPKYNIS for the treatment of adult patients with active lupus nephritis. It has a collaboration and license agreement with Otsuka Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. The company is headquartered in Victoria, Canada.

CEO
Peter S. Greenleaf
Employees
130
Beta
1.54
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
43.1
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-15.5%
High: $16.54
From 52W Low
+113.3%
Low: $6.55
Moving Averages
10-Day
$14.40
Below
20-Day
$14.50
Below
50-Day
$15.10
Below
200-Day
$12.20
Above
60-Day Support
$13.61
60-Day Resistance
$16.54
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 80/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+14.5%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+21.17%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.89x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$77M$73M$70M$62M
Gross Profit$69M$65M$63M$54M
Operating Income$33M$30M$20M$22M
Net Income$211M$32M$22M$23M
EPS (Diluted)$1.53$0.23$0.15$0.16
Gross Margin89.0%88.4%89.8%86.3%
Operating Margin43.1%40.5%28.7%35.0%
Net Margin273.4%42.9%30.7%37.4%

Why This Stock

HealthcareRevenue growth 34.0%Profit margin 29.3%

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 87/100Score impact: +12.4pt

Volume
100
1.1M avg/day
Dollar Vol
72
$16M/day
Float
100
128M shares
Mkt Cap
59
$1.9B
Range
100
153% spread
Composite Liquidity Score87/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$9.72$33.97111%Wide
2022$4.07$23.42140.8%Wide
2023$5.31$12.4380.3%Wide
2024$4.71$10.6777.5%Wide
2025$6.55$16.5486.5%Wide
3-Year Range
111.3%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
97.1%
Outstanding Shares
132M
Bid-Ask Spread
153.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.