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54

TBPH

๐Ÿฅ Healthcare

Theravance Biopharma, Inc.

Conservative #505Aggressive #779Low Risk
$18.19-4.56%
Day High$19.11
Day Low$17.98
Volume0.6M
Mkt Cap$922M
52W Low $852W High $21
Market Cap
$956M
P/E Ratio
33.8
Sector avg: 41.9
Rev Growth
12.1%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
-2.2%
Profit Margin
36.5%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.19

Why This Score

TBPH scores 54.2 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 36.5%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (13.3%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-3.9 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score54.2
Fundamental Score59.7
ML Score32.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
52.9
6 Month
59.1
Primary
1 Year
62.2

Quality Assessment

D
Quality Grade
Below average quality โ€” weak profitability or high leverage
2 quality flags detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (-730.5%) โ€” earnings quality concern
Pipeline concentration: $1.0B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
82
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
55
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
69
Grade B
Base
52.1
SHAP
+2.8
Factors
+1.2
Divergence
-1.9
Final
54.2
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

56AVG
Value52
Quality33
Growth50
Stability82
Investment64

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)49.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)90.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)84.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-0.7% to +3.5%
Medium-term
-0.3% to +6.1%
Long-term
+0.1% to +8.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 32

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score55.4/100
Target Upside+74.4%
Coverage14 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score82.1/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+1.1%
6M Momentum+0.4%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+68.2%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.37)
Relative Strength vs Sector+84.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+1.004
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
5%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P59
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P12
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P99
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 60 relative to sector peers60/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 32th percentileP32
Blended score: 80% fundamental (60) + 20% ML (32) = 54.254.2
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 8% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade D
SHAP feature alignment: +2.8pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Divergence penalty: -1.9pt (ML 28pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-730.5%) โ€” earnings quality concern; Pipeline concentration: $1.0B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare โ€” Rank #70 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
TBPH54.233.812.1%36.5%$956M
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$19.6B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$17.9B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
ASND78.316.698.0%-31.7%$13.8B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$121.8B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.1B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.3B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$204.8B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$47.4B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$80.2B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$180.9B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$7.9B
Sector Average36.641.9161.5%-3292.7%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy14 analysts
Buy: 6Hold: 5Sell: 3
Price Target
$34consensus
Low $27Median $34High $40
+84.2% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Theravance Biopharma, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, discovers, develops, and commercializes respiratory medicines in the United States, Europe, and Asia. The company offers YUPELRI, a once-daily, nebulized long-acting muscarinic antagonist used for the treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Its product portfolio also include Izencitinib, a gut-selective pan-janus kinase (JAK) inhibitor that is in Phase IIb/III clinical trials for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis, myelofibrosis, and ulcerative colitis, as well as for a range of inflammatory intestinal diseases, including ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease. In addition, the company's product portfolio comprise Ampreloxetine, an investigational norepinephrine reuptake inhibitor that has completed Phase III study for neurogenic orthostatic hypotension; Nezulcitinib, a lung-selective, nebulized JAK inhibitor, which is in Phase II clinical development for the potential treatment of hospitalized patients with acute lung injury caused by COVID-19; Inhaled ALK5i, a potential inhaled anti-fibrotic agent that is in Phase I for the treatment of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis; and TD-5202, an investigational, orally administered, gut-selective, irreversible JAK3 inhibitor that is in Phase I clinical study for treatment of inflammatory intestinal diseases. Further, it offers TRELEGY for the treatment of COPD and asthma; Velusetrag, an oral and investigational medicine for gastrointestinal motility disorders; and Selective 5-HT4 Agonist for treatment of gastrointestinal motility disorders. It has a licensing and collaboration agreements with Pfizer Inc., Viatris Inc., Janssen Biotech, Inc., Alfasigma S.p.A, and Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited. Theravance Biopharma, Inc. was incorporated in 2013 and is based in George Town, the Cayman Islands.

CEO
Rick E. Winningham
Employees
97
Beta
0.16
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
37.1
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-13.5%
High: $21.03
From 52W Low
+130.3%
Low: $7.9
Moving Averages
10-Day
$19.20
Below
20-Day
$19.40
Below
50-Day
$19.20
Below
200-Day
$14.80
Above
60-Day Support
$17.25
60-Day Resistance
$21.03
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 85/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+22.9%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+24.88%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.09x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$20M$26M$15M$19M
Gross Profit$12M$16M$4M$19M
Operating Income$-6M$-3M$-14M$-9M
Net Income$4M$55M$-14M$-16M
EPS (Diluted)$0.07$1.08$-0.27$-0.31
Gross Margin59.4%60.0%25.6%100.0%
Operating Margin-32.3%-10.4%-93.8%-49.1%
Net Margin18.1%209.3%-88.2%-82.8%

Why This Stock

HealthcareRevenue growth 12.1%Profit margin 36.5%

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 69/100Score impact: -2.5pt

Volume
76
462K avg/day
Dollar Vol
58
$9M/day
Float
77
47M shares
Mkt Cap
40
$956M
Range
100
166% spread
Composite Liquidity Score69/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$6.10$22.74115.4%Wide
2022$7.53$13.1754.5%Wide
2023$8.25$12.0337.3%Wide
2024$7.44$11.7144.6%Wide
2025$7.90$20.3388.1%Wide
3-Year Range
92.8%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
93.4%
Outstanding Shares
51M
Bid-Ask Spread
166.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.