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22

VIR

🏥 Healthcare

Vir Biotechnology, Inc.

Conservative #1288Aggressive #1284Moderate RiskMixed 51F↑ 17pt
Market Cap
$1.1B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
-13.9%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
15.1%
Profit Margin
-2963.5%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.13

Why This Score

VIR scores 21.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (12.4%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-7.5 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score21.7
Fundamental Score32.3
ML Score6.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
7.5
6 Month
8.4
Primary
1 Year
8.9

Quality Assessment

D
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $1.1B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary risk
Speculative Classification
Anomalous margin data — extreme values suggest one-time events or accounting irregularities.
Conservative score reduced by 4 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
50
Basing
Sentiment (2.5%)
65
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
71
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
83
Grade A
Base
23.0
SHAP
+1.3
Factors
-0.9
Divergence
-1.7
Final
21.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)49.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)63.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)84.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-28.9% to -16.9%
Medium-term
-39.1% to -23.1%
Long-term
-50.3% to -27.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 6

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score70.5/100
Target Upside+174.1%
Coverage11 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score65.3/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage1 — Basing
12M Momentum-0.1%
6M Momentum+0.5%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-62.2%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.21)
Relative Strength vs Sector-35.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.9)
Momentum Quality-0.084
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P10
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P40
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P1
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 41 relative to sector peers41/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 24th percentileP24
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.3pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (40.8) + 9% ML (23.3) + SHAP(+1.3) = 40.5—
Factor quality: -0.9pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 12.4%. Max drawdown 24% (-6.3 pts). Price momentum -11% (-1.2 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.1B market cap)-8.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -0.9pt (fund 17pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by -30 pointsGrade D
Quality concern: Non-operating gain: net margin (-2963.5%) exceeds operating margin (-3253.6%) by 290pp — likely one-time item; Pipeline concentration: $1.1B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #288 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
VIR21.7N/A-13.9%-2963.5%$1.1B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

No analyst sentiment data available for VIR.

Why This Stock

Healthcare

Tradability FilterGrade A — 83/100Score impact: -8.7pt

Volume
100
1.9M avg/day
Dollar Vol
68
$14M/day
Float
99
98M shares
Mkt Cap
41
$1.1B
Range
100
137% spread
Composite Liquidity Score83/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.35x dampening
weinstein basingrevenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
70.7%
Outstanding Shares
139M
Bid-Ask Spread
137.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.