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51

DAWN

🏥 Healthcare

Day One Biopharmaceuticals, Inc.

Conservative #529Aggressive #433Moderate RiskModerate 70
$10.78-1.37%
Day High$11.18
Day Low$10.67
Volume0.0M
Mkt Cap$1.1B
52W Low $652W High $13
Market Cap
$1.2B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
0.0%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
49.5%
Profit Margin
-113.5%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.01

Why This Score

DAWN scores 51.2 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.01) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (25%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Above-average volatility (12.2%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (0.0 points) applied. DAWN's rank of #529 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score51.2
Fundamental Score48.1
ML Score50.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
40.8
6 Month
45.6
Primary
1 Year
48.0

Quality Assessment

C
Earnings Grade
Mixed fundamentals, potential quality issues
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $1.2B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
80
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
73
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
86
Grade A
Base
48.5
SHAP
+1.8
Factors
+0.9
Final
51.2
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)58.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)82.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)88.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-1.2% to +2.9%
Medium-term
-1.2% to +5.2%
Long-term
-1.2% to +7.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 50

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score72.9/100
Target Upside+120.9%
Coverage12 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score79.9/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.3%
6M Momentum+0.5%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-25.8%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.49)
Relative Strength vs Sector+0.9%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.1)
Momentum Quality+0.203
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
5%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P41
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P40
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P21
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 65 relative to sector peers65/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 50th percentileP50
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.8pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (64.9) + 9% ML (48.5) + SHAP(+1.8) = 65.2
Factor quality: +0.9pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 12.2%. Max drawdown 20% (-4.6 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.2B market cap)-8.0 pts
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by -14 pointsGrade C
Quality concern: Elevated non-operating income: 10pp gap between net and operating margin; High accrual ratio (21.2%) — earnings quality concern; Pipeline concentration: $1.2B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #70 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
DAWN51.2N/A0.0%-113.5%$1.2B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%

Company Overviewvia FMP

Day One Biopharmaceuticals, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes targeted therapies for patients with genetically defined cancers. Its lead product candidate is DAY101, an oral brain-penetrant type II pan-rapidly accelerated fibrosarcoma kinase inhibitor that is in Phase II clinical trial for pediatric patients with relapsed/progressive low-grade glioma. The company is also developing Pimasertib, an oral small molecule inhibitor of mitogen-activated protein kinase kinases 1 and 2. Day One Biopharmaceuticals, Inc. was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.

CEO
Jeremy Bender
Employees
181
Beta
-1.26
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
53.8
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-17.4%
High: $13.2
From 52W Low
+93.3%
Low: $5.64
Moving Averages
10-Day
$11.50
Below
20-Day
$11.40
Below
50-Day
$10.60
Above
200-Day
$8.10
Above
60-Day Support
$7.9
60-Day Resistance
$13.2
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 86/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+34.6%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+7.11%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.69x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
77
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$54M$40M$34M$31M
Gross Profit$48M$35M$30M$28M
Operating Income$-27M$-24M$-35M$-41M
Net Income$-21M$-20M$-30M$-36M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.21$-0.19$-0.29$-0.35
Gross Margin88.7%88.7%88.9%90.6%
Operating Margin-51.1%-60.9%-103.1%-133.5%
Net Margin-39.6%-49.6%-89.4%-117.0%

Why This Stock

Healthcare

Tradability FilterGrade A — 86/100Score impact: -17.3pt

Volume
100
2.6M avg/day
Dollar Vol
87
$30M/day
Float
91
78M shares
Mkt Cap
44
$1.2B
Range
100
134% spread
Composite Liquidity Score86/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$15.16$28.7061.7%Wide
2022$5.44$28.35135.6%Wide
2023$9.67$25.7790.9%Wide
2024$11.94$18.0740.9%Wide
2025$5.64$13.5382.3%Wide
3-Year Range
128.2%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
75.7%
Outstanding Shares
103M
Bid-Ask Spread
134.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.