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27

LENZ

🏥 Healthcare

LENZ Therapeutics, Inc.

Conservative #1145Aggressive #794High RiskLow 9F↑ 30pt
$12.91-2.34%
Day High$13.38
Day Low$12.67
Volume0.3M
Mkt Cap$404M
52W Low $1252W High $50
Market Cap
$411M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
0.0%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
28.9%
Profit Margin
-336.5%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.00

Why This Score

LENZ scores 27.4 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.00) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (21.7%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -11.4 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, LENZ would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score27.4
Fundamental Score28.2
ML Score51.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
14.6
6 Month
16.3
Primary
1 Year
17.1

Quality Assessment

F
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $0.4B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
3.7%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
60
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
71
Grade Bsmall cap
Base
30.9
SHAP
+1.8
Factors
-0.2
Conviction
-3.9
Divergence
-1.2
Final
27.4
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)57.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)23.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)84.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-15.2% to -8.8%
Medium-term
-20.0% to -10.9%
Long-term
-24.8% to -12.9%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 51

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+419.0%
Coverage4 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score60.0/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.4%
6M Momentum-0.7%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+25.7%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.62)
Relative Strength vs Sector-65.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (1.9)
Momentum Quality-0.113
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
2%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P41
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P22
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P16
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 62 relative to sector peers62/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 31th percentileP31
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.8pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (61.6) + 9% ML (30.4) + SHAP(+1.8) = 60.6—
Factor quality: -0.2pt (multi-factor composite)—
Market cap adjustment: -20.0 points ($0.4B market cap)-20.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -3.9pt (conviction=9)—
Divergence penalty: -3.0pt (fund 30pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Risk assessment: high. Annualized volatility 21.7%. Max drawdown 72% (-12.0 pts). Price momentum -41% (-7.2 pts)High
Earnings quality grade F: assessed. Score adjusted by -30 pointsGrade F
Quality concern: Non-operating gain: net margin (-336.5%) exceeds operating margin (-388.0%) by 52pp — likely one-time item; High accrual ratio (23.2%) — earnings quality concern; Pipeline concentration: $0.4B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #226 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
LENZ27.4N/A0.0%-336.5%$411M
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$19.6B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$17.9B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
ASND78.216.698.0%-31.7%$13.8B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$121.8B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.1B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.3B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$204.8B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$47.4B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$80.2B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$180.9B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$7.9B
Sector Average36.441.9161.5%-3292.7%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy4 analysts
Buy: 4
Price Target
$62consensus
Low $56Median $62High $67
+376.4% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

LENZ Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing and commercializing therapies to improve vision in the United States. Its product candidates include LNZ100 and LNZ101 which are in Phase III clinical trials for the treatment of presbyopia. The company is headquartered in Del Mar, California.

CEO
Evert Schimmelpennink
Employees
6
Beta
0.49
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
39.3
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-74.5%
High: $50.4
From 52W Low
+12%
Low: $11.48
Moving Averages
10-Day
$12.60
Above
20-Day
$13.80
Below
50-Day
$16.00
Below
200-Day
$29.10
Below
60-Day Support
$11.48
60-Day Resistance
$30.8
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 13/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-55.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-6.53%
Falling
Volume Ratio
0.72x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
63
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$13M$5M$0$0
Gross Profit$12M$5M$0$0
Operating Income$-19M$-17M$-17M$-15M
Net Income$-17M$-15M$-15M$-13M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.59$-0.53$-0.53$-0.46
Gross Margin99.0%100.0%N/AN/A
Operating Margin-151.1%-337.1%N/AN/A
Net Margin-133.6%-298.2%N/AN/A

Why This Stock

Healthcare

Tradability FilterGrade B — 71/100Score impact: -41.4pt

Volume
100
1.1M avg/day
Dollar Vol
66
$13M/day
Float
58
28M shares
Mkt Cap
17
$411M
Range
100
339% spread
Composite Liquidity Score71/100
FDCBA
small cap

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$38.38$160.91123%Wide
2022$9.80$63.37146.4%Wide
2023$7.53$16.2373.2%Wide
2024$11.83$38.93106.8%Wide
2025$15.70$50.40105%Wide
3-Year Range
148%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
88.3%
Outstanding Shares
31M
Bid-Ask Spread
339.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.