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31

SPRY

๐Ÿฅ Healthcare

ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Conservative #1084Aggressive #1138Moderate RiskMixed 55Fโ†‘ 23pt
$9.38+1.46%
Day High$9.40
Day Low$8.81
Volume0.3M
Mkt Cap$927M
52W Low $752W High $19
Market Cap
$901M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
N/A
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
N/A
Profit Margin
-56.1%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.01

Why This Score

SPRY scores 31.1 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.01) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Above-average volatility (16.6%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-0.4 points) applied. SPRY's rank of #1084 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score31.1
Fundamental Score32.8
ML Score15.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
32.9
6 Month
36.7
Primary
1 Year
38.6

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $0.9B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4.8%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
60
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
63
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
81
Grade A
Base
29.2
SHAP
+1.7
Factors
+0.6
Divergence
-0.4
Final
31.1
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)50.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)35.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)81.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage88%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-7.8% to -2.8%
Medium-term
-10.7% to -3.4%
Long-term
-13.6% to -4.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 15

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score62.5/100
Target Upside+236.7%
Coverage10 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score60.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.2%
6M Momentum-0.2%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+8.3%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.65)
Relative Strength vs Sector-40.0%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.9)
Momentum Quality-0.078
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
3%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P41
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P22
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P22
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 66 relative to sector peers66/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 44th percentileP44
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.7pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (66.5) + 9% ML (41.4) + SHAP(+1.7) = 65.9โ€”
Factor quality: +0.6pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 16.6%. Max drawdown 50% (-12.0 pts). Price momentum -16% (-2.1 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.9B market cap)-15.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -1.8pt (fund 23pt higher)โ€”
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -7 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: Pipeline concentration: $0.9B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare โ€” Rank #205 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
SPRY31.1N/AN/A-56.1%$901M
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$19.6B
GMAB85.613.122.8%36.4%$17.9B
CPRX82.113.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$121.8B
ASND75.816.698.0%-31.7%$13.8B
NBIX74.826.521.4%16.7%$13.1B
AMGN73.926.010.0%21.0%$204.8B
ARGX73.535.178.6%38.0%$47.4B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.419.41.0%31.4%$80.2B
ISRG72.261.720.5%28.4%$180.9B
EXEL71.615.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
ALKS71.516.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$7.9B
HALO70.316.822.4%43.7%$8.2B
Sector Average37.041.9161.5%-3292.7%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc. develops ARS-1, a novel intranasal epinephrine spray with absorption technology for patients and their families at-risk of severe allergic reactions to food, medications, and insect bites. Its product includes Neffy, a low-dose intranasal epinephrine nasal spray. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is based in San Diego, California.

CEO
Richard E. Lowenthal
Employees
155
Beta
0.74
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
45.6
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-50.4%
High: $18.9
From 52W Low
+40.7%
Low: $6.66
Moving Averages
10-Day
$9.20
Above
20-Day
$9.60
Below
50-Day
$10.40
Below
200-Day
$12.20
Below
60-Day Support
$8.61
60-Day Resistance
$13.15
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 13/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-23.2%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-5.42%
Falling
Volume Ratio
0.63x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
32
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$33M$16M$8M$87M
Gross Profit$24M$11M$4M$83M
Operating Income$-53M$-48M$-37M$47M
Net Income$-51M$-45M$-34M$50M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.52$-0.46$-0.35$0.51
Gross Margin74.8%68.3%49.3%95.5%
Operating Margin-163.7%-302.9%-466.3%54.5%
Net Margin-157.4%-285.6%-425.7%57.7%

Why This Stock

Healthcare

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 81/100Score impact: -11.8pt

Volume
100
1.7M avg/day
Dollar Vol
72
$16M/day
Float
84
61M shares
Mkt Cap
38
$901M
Range
100
184% spread
Composite Liquidity Score81/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$5.87$63.41166.1%Wide
2022$2.80$9.17106.4%Wide
2023$2.55$9.65116.4%Wide
2024$5.19$18.51112.4%Wide
2025$6.66$18.9095.8%Wide
3-Year Range
152.4%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
61.6%
Outstanding Shares
99M
Bid-Ask Spread
184.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.