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19

SVRA

๐Ÿฅ Healthcare

Savara Inc.

Conservative #1318Aggressive #1243Moderate RiskMixed 59Fโ†‘ 21pt
$5.88+0.68%
Day High$5.88
Day Low$5.67
Volume0.2M
Mkt Cap$1.2B
52W Low $252W High $7
Market Cap
$1.1B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
0.0%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
-75.3%
Profit Margin
0.0%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.32

Why This Score

SVRA scores 18.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (125%) increases mean-reversion probability. 3-point penalty applied.
  • Above-average volatility (19.0%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -17.4 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, SVRA would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score18.7
Fundamental Score32.5
ML Score22.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
12.8
6 Month
14.3
Primary
1 Year
15.1

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $1.1B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary risk
Speculative Classification
Speculative micro-cap โ€” no earnings, sub-$2B market cap, momentum-driven. Position sizing should reflect elevated risk.
Conservative score reduced by 3 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4.2%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
80
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
82
Grade A
Base
24.4
SHAP
-5.0
Factors
-0.7
Final
18.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)40.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)81.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)83.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-12.1% to -5.7%
Medium-term
-15.9% to -6.8%
Long-term
-19.7% to -8.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 22

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+86.0%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score80.0/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+1.2%
6M Momentum+0.7%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+54.2%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.57)
Relative Strength vs Sector+100.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.890
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
3%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P41
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P22
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P25
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 50 relative to sector peers50/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 29th percentileP29
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: -5.0pt (features diverge from model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (50.0) + 9% ML (27.7) + SHAP(-5.0) = 43.0โ€”
Factor quality: -0.7pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 19.0%. Max drawdown 29% (-8.3 pts)Moderate
Momentum mean-reversion: -2.2pt (125% 12m momentum)โ€”
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.1B market cap)-8.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -1.5pt (fund 21pt higher)โ€”
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -7 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: Pipeline concentration: $1.1B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare โ€” Rank #300 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
SVRA18.7N/A0.0%0.0%$1.1B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$19.6B
GMAB85.613.122.8%36.4%$17.9B
CPRX82.113.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$121.8B
ASND75.816.698.0%-31.7%$13.8B
NBIX74.826.521.4%16.7%$13.1B
AMGN73.926.010.0%21.0%$204.8B
ARGX73.535.178.6%38.0%$47.4B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.419.41.0%31.4%$80.2B
ISRG72.261.720.5%28.4%$180.9B
EXEL71.615.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
ALKS71.516.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$7.9B
HALO70.316.822.4%43.7%$8.2B
Sector Average37.041.9161.5%-3292.7%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Savara Inc., a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on rare respiratory diseases. Its lead product candidate is molgramostim, an inhaled granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor, which is in Phase III development stage for the treatment of autoimmune pulmonary alveolar proteinosis. The company is headquartered in Austin, Texas.

CEO
Matthew Pauls
Employees
59
Beta
0.32
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
66.6
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-16.6%
High: $7.01
From 52W Low
+209.3%
Low: $1.89
Moving Averages
10-Day
$5.70
Above
20-Day
$5.50
Above
50-Day
$5.80
Above
200-Day
$4.00
Above
60-Day Support
$5.1
60-Day Resistance
$7.01
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 90/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+46.1%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+30.05%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.8x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$0$0$0$0
Gross Profit$0$-385,000$-905,000$-70,000
Operating Income$-30M$-31M$-28M$-31M
Net Income$-30M$-30M$-27M$-29M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.14$-0.14$-0.12$-0.14
Gross MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A
Operating MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A
Net MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A

Why This Stock

Healthcare

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 82/100Score impact: -25.4pt

Volume
100
2.5M avg/day
Dollar Vol
68
$14M/day
Float
94
86M shares
Mkt Cap
43
$1.1B
Range
100
271% spread
Composite Liquidity Score82/100
FDCBA
Free Float
42.2%
Outstanding Shares
203M
Bid-Ask Spread
271.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.