PVLA

🏥 Healthcare

Palvella Therapeutics, Inc.

Conservative #1329Aggressive #660Moderate RiskLow 29F↑ 36pt

$145.80+13.37%

Day High$146.09

Day Low$122.61

Volume0.2M

Mkt Cap$1.7B

52W Low $1852W High $146

Market Cap

$1.0B

P/E Ratio

N/A

Rev Growth

0.0%

Sector avg: 161.5%

Earnings Growth

-193.3%

Profit Margin

0.0%

Sector avg: -3292.7%

Debt/Equity

0.41

Why This Score

PVLA scores 18.2 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths

ML model assigns a high-conviction signal (99/100), indicating strong pattern recognition across 82 features.

Risk Factors

Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (321%) increases mean-reversion probability. 5-point penalty applied.
Procyclicality: Late-cycle macro signals reduce confidence in extreme-momentum names. 2-point additional penalty.
Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.
Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
Above-average volatility (25.9%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -28.7 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, PVLA would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score18.2

Fundamental Score30.4

ML Score99.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month

5.3

6 Month

6.0

Primary

1 Year

6.3

Quality Assessment

Earnings Grade

Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Quality Flags

Pipeline concentration: $1.0B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary risk

Speculative Classification

Speculative micro-cap — no earnings, sub-$2B market cap, momentum-driven. Position sizing should reflect elevated risk.

Conservative score reduced by 3 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation

3.1%

Confidence

high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score

Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)

Weinstein (12.1%)

100

Advancing

Sentiment (2.5%)

Positive

Analyst (6.4%)

Favorable

Tradability (post-hoc)

Grade Clow float

Base

29.1

SHAP

-0.4

Factors

-0.4

Conviction

-2.0

Divergence

-8.0

Final

18.2

Positive adjustment

Negative adjustment

Base blend

Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)40.0

Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)79.0

External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)92.0

Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score

Features

Confidence

Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term

-19.0% to -11.1%

Medium-term

-26.2% to -15.0%

Long-term

-33.1% to -18.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 99

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence

Consensus Score77.8/100

Target Upside+104.3%

Coverage9 analysts

Market Sentiment

Sentiment Score91.1/100

News Volume1 articles

Technical Stage

Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing

12M Momentum+3.2%

6M Momentum+0.5%

Volatility+0.3%

Momentum & Technical

Momentum Acceleration+270.4%

Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.16)

Relative Strength vs Sector+296.6%

Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)

Momentum Quality+2.352

Momentum BreadthBroad ✓

Macro Regime

Bull RegimeYes

High Vol RegimeNo

S&P 500 Return+25.0%

Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal

11%

Low risk

Sector RevGr Rank

P41

Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers

Sector PE Rank

P40

Valuation vs Healthcare peers

Sector FCF Rank

P46

Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers

Growth Deviation

-0.0σ

Z-score vs sector median

Stagnation Flag

Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors

Fundamental score of 57 relative to sector peers57/100

Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 21th percentileP21

ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight

SHAP feature alignment: -0.4pt (features diverge from model priorities)—

Blend: 91% fund (56.6) + 9% ML (19.7) + SHAP(-0.4) = 52.9—

Factor quality: -0.4pt (multi-factor composite)—

Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 25.9%. Max drawdown 27% (-7.5 pts)Moderate

Momentum mean-reversion: -6.0pt (321% 12m momentum)—

Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.0B market cap)-8.0 pts

Conviction penalty: -2.0pt (conviction=29)—

Divergence penalty: -3.9pt (fund 36pt higher)—

Risk Factors

Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -10 pointsGrade B

Quality concern: High accrual ratio (22.7%) — earnings quality concern; Pipeline concentration: $1.0B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #306 of 344 stocks)

Stock	Score	P/E	Rev Growth	Margin	Mkt Cap
PVLAPalvella Therapeutics, Inc.	18.2	N/A	0.0%	0.0%	$1.0B
INCYIncyte Corporation	89.6	15.8	21.2%	25.0%	$20.1B
GMABGenmab A/S	85.5	13.1	22.8%	36.4%	$18.5B
CPRXCatalyst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.	82.2	13.7	23.5%	37.6%	$3.0B
VRTXVertex Pharmaceuticals Incorpor	78.0	32.1	8.9%	32.9%	$126.0B
ASNDAscendis Pharma A/S	75.7	16.6	98.0%	-31.7%	$13.3B
NBIXNeurocrine Biosciences, Inc.	74.7	26.5	21.4%	16.7%	$12.5B
ALKSAlkermes plc	74.6	16.5	-6.4%	23.9%	$5.5B
AMGNAmgen Inc.	73.8	26.0	10.0%	21.0%	$199.0B
ARGXargenx SE	73.6	35.1	78.6%	38.0%	$50.9B
HOLXHologic, Inc.	73.3	31.1	1.7%	13.8%	$16.8B
REGNRegeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc.	72.7	19.4	1.0%	31.4%	$84.9B
ISRGIntuitive Surgical, Inc.	72.3	61.7	20.5%	28.4%	$172.5B
EXELExelixis, Inc.	71.9	15.1	7.0%	33.7%	$11.7B
KRYSKrystal Biotech, Inc.	71.0	41.4	473.0%	30.7%	$8.0B
HALOHalozyme Therapeutics, Inc.	70.2	16.8	22.4%	43.7%	$9.3B
Sector Average	37.1	252.3	161.5%	-3292.7%	—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus

Buy10 analysts

Strong Buy: 1Buy: 9

Price Target

$204consensus

Low $143Median $205High $255

+39.9% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Palvella Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing and commercializing novel therapies to treat patients serious and rare genetic skin diseases. Its lead product candidate is QTORIN 3.9% rapamycin anhydrous gel (QTORIN rapamycin) that is in Phase 3 clinical trial for the treatment of microcystic lymphatic malformations, as well as in Phase 2 clinical trial to treat cutaneous venous malformations. It also develops QTORIN rapamycin for the treatment of other mTOR-driven skin diseases. The company is based in Wayne, Pennsylvania.

CEO

Wesley H. Kaupinen

Employees

Beta

-0.16

Industry

Biotechnology

FMP-Identified Peers

ABUS EYPT GHRS KURA NBTX PROK RZLT SPRY SVRA TYRA

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)

89.8

Overbought

Trend

Bullish

10-day vs 50-day MA

From 52W High

+0%

High: $143.75

From 52W Low

+688.5%

Low: $18.23

Moving Averages

10-Day

$97.20

Above

20-Day

$88.40

Above

50-Day

$93.40

Above

200-Day

$62.90

Above

60-Day Support

$72.22

60-Day Resistance

$143.75

Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework

Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 95/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support

Price vs 200 SMA

+128.5%

200 SMA Slope (60d)

+50.14%

Rising

Volume Ratio

1.23x

10d avg vs 50d avg

Days in Stage

100

Confidence: 90%

Recent Gap Up

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

Metric	Q3 2025	Q2 2025	Q1 2025	Q4 2024
Revenue	$0	$0	$0	$0
Gross Profit	$0	$0	$0	$0
Operating Income	$-10M	$-9M	$-8M	$-4M
Net Income	$-11M	$-9M	$-8M	$-4M
EPS (Diluted)	$-1.03	$-0.86	$-3.68	$-0.88
Gross Margin	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Operating Margin	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Net Margin	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Why This Stock

Healthcare

Tradability FilterGrade C — 56/100Score impact: -55.9pt

Volume

276K avg/day

Dollar Vol

$24M/day

Float

8M shares

Mkt Cap

$1.0B

Range

100

529% spread

Composite Liquidity Score56/100

FDCBA

low float

Free Float

67.8%

Outstanding Shares

12M

Bid-Ask Spread

529.0%

Institutional Tradable

Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.