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SIMO

💻 Technology

Silicon Motion Technology Corporation

Conservative #40Aggressive #43Low RiskModerate 71
$143.01+5.24%
Day High$146.85
Day Low$138.78
Volume0.7M
Mkt Cap$4.8B
52W Low $3752W High $147
Market Cap
$4.5B
P/E Ratio
9.2
Sector avg: 87.4
Rev Growth
10.2%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
37.5%
Profit Margin
13.8%
Sector avg: -109.6%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

SIMO scores 74.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 15.2% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Attractively valued at 9.2x earnings, below the market average.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.00) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • ML model assigns a high-conviction signal (94/100), indicating strong pattern recognition across 82 features.
  • High conviction (71/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (152%) increases mean-reversion probability. 3-point penalty applied.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (12.5%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-4.3 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score74.7
Fundamental Score70.2
ML Score94.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
40.8
6 Month
45.5
Primary
1 Year
47.9

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
67
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
69
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
82
Grade A
Base
72.0
SHAP
+3.7
Factors
+0.3
Divergence
-1.3
Final
74.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)71.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)91.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)84.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.7% to -1.1%
Medium-term
-8.1% to -1.2%
Long-term
-10.4% to -1.3%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 94

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score68.5/100
Target Upside+4.3%
Coverage31 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score66.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+1.5%
6M Momentum+0.7%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+77.7%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.49)
Relative Strength vs Sector+147.9%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+1.374
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
6%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P49
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P73
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P17
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 64 relative to sector peers64/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 50th percentileP50
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +4.3pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (64.3) + 9% ML (48.4) + SHAP(+4.3) = 67.2
Factor quality: +0.3pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 12.5%. Max drawdown 9% (-0.5 pts)Low
Momentum mean-reversion: -3.6pt (152% 12m momentum)
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($4.5B market cap)+0.5 pts
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (49.7%) — earnings quality concern; R&D-adjusted ROIC: 8.3% (original: 9.2%). Semiconductors has ~18% R&D intensity. Capitalizing R&D over 5 years increases invested capital by ~45%.Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #11 of 290 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
TER72.290.95.4%19.2%$50.1B
Sector Average47.487.414.8%-109.6%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy31 analysts
Buy: 25Hold: 4Sell: 2
Price Target
$143consensus
Low $120Median $145High $160
-0.4% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Silicon Motion Technology Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, and markets NAND flash controllers for solid-state storage devices. It offers controllers for computing-grade solid state drives (SSDs), which are used in PCs and other client devices; enterprise-grade SSDs used in data centers; eMMC and UFS mobile embedded storage for use in smartphones and IoT devices; flash memory cards and flash drives for use in expandable storage; and specialized SSDs that are used in industrial, commercial, and automotive applications. It markets its controllers under the SMI brand; enterprise-grade SSDs under the Shannon Systems brand; and single-chip industrial-grade SSDs under the Ferri SSD, Ferri-eMMC, and Ferri-UFS brands. The company markets and sells its products through direct sales personnel and independent electronics distributors to NAND flash makers, module makers, hyperscalers, and OEMs. It operates in Taiwan, the United States, South Korea, China, Malaysia, Singapore, and internationally. Silicon Motion Technology Corporation was founded in 1995 and is based in Hong Kong, Hong Kong.

CEO
Chia-Chang Kou
Employees
1,819
Beta
1.03
Industry
Semiconductors
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
64.6
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-2.6%
High: $146.85
From 52W Low
+284.3%
Low: $37.21
Moving Averages
10-Day
$136.10
Above
20-Day
$130.20
Above
50-Day
$113.00
Above
200-Day
$88.80
Above
60-Day Support
$83.34
60-Day Resistance
$146.85
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 90/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+61%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+24.93%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.85x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$278M$242M$199M$166M
Gross Profit$137M$118M$95M$78M
Operating Income$32M$29M$22M$10M
Net Income$48M$39M$16M$19M
EPS (Diluted)$5.68$4.64$1.96$0.56
Gross Margin49.1%48.6%47.7%47.1%
Operating Margin11.4%12.1%11.2%5.9%
Net Margin17.1%16.2%8.2%11.7%

Why This Stock

TechnologyP/E ratio of 9.2Revenue growth 10.2%Profit margin 13.8%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 82/100Score impact: -8.1pt

Volume
83
583K avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$79M/day
Float
63
33M shares
Mkt Cap
66
$4.5B
Range
100
289% spread
Composite Liquidity Score82/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$56.06$96.7353.2%Wide
2022$51.82$98.6562.2%Wide
2023$49.50$95.3363.3%Wide
2024$50.50$85.8751.9%Wide
2025$37.21$106.6096.5%Wide
3-Year Range
96.5%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
96.9%
Outstanding Shares
34M
Bid-Ask Spread
289.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.