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AMBA

💻 Technology

Ambarella, Inc.

Conservative #713Aggressive #436Moderate RiskModerate 69ML↑ 16pt
$70.29-1.29%
Day High$72.73
Day Low$69.07
Volume0.7M
Mkt Cap$3.0B
52W Low $3952W High $97
Market Cap
$2.9B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
25.8%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
30.9%
Profit Margin
-21.3%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.02

Why This Score

AMBA scores 44.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.02) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Above-average volatility (12.9%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (0.0 points) applied. AMBA's rank of #713 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score44.8
Fundamental Score41.2
ML Score48.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
61.9
6 Month
69.2
Primary
1 Year
72.9

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (200.5%) — earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
65
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
64
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
88
Grade A
Base
43.4
SHAP
+1.2
Factors
+1.0
Divergence
-0.8
Final
44.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)66.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)47.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)82.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.3% to +1.3%
Medium-term
-7.9% to +1.9%
Long-term
-10.6% to +2.6%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 48

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score63.9/100
Target Upside+46.1%
Coverage36 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score64.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum-0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+27.5%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.39)
Relative Strength vs Sector+4.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.6)
Momentum Quality+0.058
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
5%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P83
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P78
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P37
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
+0.3σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 56 relative to sector peers56/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 72th percentileP72
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.2pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (56.3) + 9% ML (70.0) + SHAP(+1.2) = 58.8—
Factor quality: +1.0pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 12.9%. Max drawdown 25% (-6.7 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -4.0 points ($2.9B market cap)-4.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -0.8pt (ML 16pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (200.5%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #161 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
AMBA44.8N/A25.8%-21.3%$2.9B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy36 analysts
Buy: 21Hold: 14Sell: 1
Price Target
$98consensus
Low $80Median $98High $115
+38.7% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Ambarella, Inc. develops semiconductor solutions for video that enable high-definition (HD) and ultra HD compression, image processing, and deep neural network processing worldwide. The company's system-on-a-chip designs integrated HD video processing, image processing, artificial intelligence computer vision algorithms, audio processing, and system functions onto a single chip for delivering video and image quality, differentiated functionality, and low power consumption. Its solutions are used in automotive cameras, such as automotive video recorders, electronic mirrors, front advanced driver assistance system camera, cabin monitoring system and driver monitoring system camera, and central domain controllers for autonomous vehicle; and professional and home internet protocol security camera; robotics and industrial application, including identification/authentication cameras, robotic products, and sensing cameras, as well as cameras for the home, public spaces, and consumer leisure comprising wearable body cameras, sports action cameras, social media cameras, drones for capturing aerial video or photographs, video conferencing, and virtual reality applications. The company sells its solutions to original design manufacturers and original equipment manufacturers through its direct sales force and distributors. Ambarella, Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.

CEO
Feng-Ming Wang
Employees
941
Beta
1.94
Industry
Semiconductors
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
75.8
Overbought
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-27.3%
High: $96.69
From 52W Low
+80.9%
Low: $38.86
Moving Averages
10-Day
$67.40
Above
20-Day
$65.40
Above
50-Day
$68.40
Above
200-Day
$71.70
Below
60-Day Support
$58.58
60-Day Resistance
$81.35
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 29/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-2%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+6.61%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.79x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
31
Confidence: 40%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2025
Revenue$108M$96M$86M$84M
Gross Profit$65M$56M$52M$50M
Operating Income$-15M$-22M$-26M$-25M
Net Income$-15M$-20M$-24M$-20M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.35$-0.47$-0.58$-0.48
Gross Margin60.3%58.9%60.0%60.0%
Operating Margin-13.9%-23.0%-30.1%-30.2%
Net Margin-13.9%-20.9%-28.3%-24.1%

Why This Stock

TechnologyRevenue growth 25.8%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 88/100Score impact: -1.6pt

Volume
98
955K avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$64M/day
Float
71
41M shares
Mkt Cap
62
$2.9B
Range
100
149% spread
Composite Liquidity Score88/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.15x dampening
weinstein declining

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
94.6%
Outstanding Shares
43M
Bid-Ask Spread
149.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.