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75

DBX

💻 Technology

Dropbox, Inc.

Conservative #34Aggressive #333Low RiskHigh 100
$24.43+0.62%
Day High$24.54
Day Low$23.90
Volume3.5M
Mkt Cap$6.6B
52W Low $2452W High $32
Market Cap
$6.4B
P/E Ratio
13.9
Sector avg: 87.4
Rev Growth
1.9%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
-0.3%
Profit Margin
17.7%
Sector avg: -109.6%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

DBX scores 75.3 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 13.9x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (5.0% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E -3.98) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • ML model assigns a high-conviction signal (96/100), indicating strong pattern recognition across 82 features.
  • High conviction (100/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Minor adjustments (-2.9 points) applied. DBX's rank of #34 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score75.3
Fundamental Score68.7
ML Score96.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
80.8
6 Month
90.3
Primary
1 Year
95.1

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality
Quality Flags
False stability: 0.050 vol with only 1.9% revenue growth — stagnation, not safety

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
50
Basing
Sentiment (2.5%)
41
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
53
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
93
Grade A
Base
73.1
SHAP
+1.2
Factors
+1.1
Conviction
+1.7
Divergence
-1.8
Final
75.3
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

75AVG
Value85
Quality85
Growth60
Stability90
Investment55

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)54.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)56.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)74.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+0.9% to +7.9%
Medium-term
+1.8% to +12.4%
Long-term
+3.3% to +17.7%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 96

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score53.3/100
Target Upside+8.8%
Coverage15 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score41.3/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage1 — Basing
12M Momentum-0.1%
6M Momentum-0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+10.0%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.36)
Relative Strength vs Sector-9.1%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (1.1)
Momentum Quality-0.045
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
50%
High risk — cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P22
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P67
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P96
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
-0.2σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
YES
Below-sector growth + cheap PE
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 83 relative to sector peers83/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 85th percentileP85
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (82.6) + 9% ML (82.2) + SHAP(+2.4) = 85.0
Factor quality: +2.3pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 5.0%. Stability bonus of +12.0 points. Max drawdown 19% (-4.3 pts). Price momentum -6% (-0.1 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($6.4B market cap)+0.5 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.6pt (conviction=100)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -13 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: False stability: 0.1 vol with only 1.9% revenue growth — stagnation, not safety; R&D-adjusted ROIC: 34.2% (original: 53.1%). Software - Infrastructure has ~22% R&D intensity. Capitalizing R&D over 5 years increases invested capital by ~55%.Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #9 of 290 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
TER72.290.95.4%19.2%$50.1B
Sector Average47.487.414.8%-109.6%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy15 analysts
Buy: 6Hold: 5Sell: 4
Price Target
$27consensus
Low $23Median $27High $30
+8.5% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Dropbox, Inc. provides a content collaboration platform worldwide. Its platform allows individuals, families, teams, and organizations to collaborate and sign up for free through its website or app, as well as upgrade to a paid subscription plan for premium features. As of December 31, 2021, the company had approximately 700 million registered users. It serves customers in professional services, technology, media, education, industrial, consumer and retail, and financial services industries. The company was formerly known as Evenflow, Inc. and changed its name to Dropbox, Inc. in October 2009. Dropbox, Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

CEO
Andrew W. Houston
Employees
2,204
Beta
0.63
Industry
Software - Infrastructure
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
42.9
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-24.6%
High: $32.4
From 52W Low
+3.4%
Low: $23.63
Moving Averages
10-Day
$24.60
Below
20-Day
$24.90
Below
50-Day
$26.40
Below
200-Day
$28.30
Below
60-Day Support
$23.63
60-Day Resistance
$30.14
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 1 — BasingScore: 40/100

Stock is building a base after a decline. The 200-day moving average is flattening. Watch for a breakout above the 200-day SMA on increased volume.

Monitor for breakout above 200-day SMA on volume
Price vs 200 SMA
-13.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-0.69%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
1.26x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
44
Confidence: 70%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$636M$634M$626M$625M
Gross Profit$504M$506M$502M$508M
Operating Income$158M$175M$172M$186M
Net Income$109M$124M$126M$150M
EPS (Diluted)$0.43$0.47$0.45$0.51
Gross Margin79.2%79.8%80.2%81.3%
Operating Margin24.9%27.5%27.5%29.8%
Net Margin17.1%19.5%20.1%24.1%

Why This Stock

TechnologyP/E ratio of 13.9Profit margin 17.7%Earnings quality grade AValuation below sector median (P/E 13.9)

Tradability FilterGrade A — 93/100Score impact: +2.9pt

Volume
100
3.8M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$93M/day
Float
100
253M shares
Mkt Cap
71
$6.4B
Range
69
37% spread
Composite Liquidity Score93/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.49x dampening
weinstein basingstagnation flag

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
94.4%
Outstanding Shares
268M
Bid-Ask Spread
37.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.