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NVDA

๐Ÿ’ป Technology

NVIDIA Corporation

Conservative #13Aggressive #5Low RiskHigh 99
$195.56+1.41%
Day High$197.63
Day Low$193.80
Volume230.0M
Mkt Cap$4.8T
52W Low $8752W High $212
Market Cap
$4.5T
P/E Ratio
45.2
Sector avg: 87.4
Rev Growth
114.2%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
144.9%
Profit Margin
55.8%
Sector avg: -109.6%
Debt/Equity
0.13

Why This Score

NVDA scores 80.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 91.9% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High net margin of 55.8%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Large-cap ($4450B) with deep liquidity and institutional ownership.
  • ML model assigns a high-conviction signal (97/100), indicating strong pattern recognition across 82 features.
  • High conviction (99/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated valuation at 45.2x earnings โ€” requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (10.7%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-1.3 points) applied. NVDA's rank of #13 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score80.6
Fundamental Score73.2
ML Score97.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
55.1
6 Month
61.6
Primary
1 Year
64.8

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
80
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
69
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
100
Grade A
Base
77.9
SHAP
+1.8
Factors
+0.5
Conviction
+1.7
Divergence
-1.3
Final
80.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

72AVG
Value55
Quality95
Growth90
Stability90
Investment30

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)84.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)81.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)87.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-2.4% to +1.7%
Medium-term
-3.2% to +2.9%
Long-term
-3.9% to +4.1%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 97

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score68.7/100
Target Upside+42.3%
Coverage79 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score79.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.5%
6M Momentum+0.0%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+41.4%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.11)
Relative Strength vs Sector+42.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (4.3)
Momentum Quality+0.405
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P99
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P27
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P27
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
+2.2ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 64 relative to sector peers64/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 65th percentileP65
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.7pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (64.3) + 9% ML (64.8) + SHAP(+3.7) = 68.0โ€”
Factor quality: +0.9pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 10.7%. Max drawdown 13% (-1.8 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: +5.0 points ($4450.1B market cap)+5.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.5pt (conviction=99)โ€”
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology โ€” Rank #3 of 290 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
TER72.290.95.4%19.2%$50.1B
Sector Average47.487.414.8%-109.6%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

NVIDIA Corporation provides graphics, and compute and networking solutions in the United States, Taiwan, China, and internationally. The company's Graphics segment offers GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs, the GeForce NOW game streaming service and related infrastructure, and solutions for gaming platforms; Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics; vGPU software for cloud-based visual and virtual computing; automotive platforms for infotainment systems; and Omniverse software for building 3D designs and virtual worlds. Its Compute & Networking segment provides Data Center platforms and systems for AI, HPC, and accelerated computing; Mellanox networking and interconnect solutions; automotive AI Cockpit, autonomous driving development agreements, and autonomous vehicle solutions; cryptocurrency mining processors; Jetson for robotics and other embedded platforms; and NVIDIA AI Enterprise and other software. The company's products are used in gaming, professional visualization, datacenter, and automotive markets. NVIDIA Corporation sells its products to original equipment manufacturers, original device manufacturers, system builders, add-in board manufacturers, retailers/distributors, independent software vendors, Internet and cloud service providers, automotive manufacturers and tier-1 automotive suppliers, mapping companies, start-ups, and other ecosystem participants. It has a strategic collaboration with Kroger Co. NVIDIA Corporation was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.

CEO
Jen-Hsun Huang
Employees
36,000
Beta
2.31
Industry
Semiconductors
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
74.5
Overbought
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-7.8%
High: $212.19
From 52W Low
+125.8%
Low: $86.62
Moving Averages
10-Day
$189.00
Above
20-Day
$187.10
Above
50-Day
$185.40
Above
200-Day
$174.30
Above
60-Day Support
$170.31
60-Day Resistance
$197.63
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 78/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+12.2%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+13.63%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.01x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2026Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$68.1B$57.0B$46.7B$44.1B
Gross Profit$51.1B$41.8B$33.9B$26.7B
Operating Income$44.3B$36.0B$28.4B$21.6B
Net Income$43.0B$31.9B$26.4B$18.8B
EPS (Diluted)$1.76$1.30$1.08$0.76
Gross Margin75.0%73.4%72.4%60.5%
Operating Margin65.0%63.2%60.8%49.1%
Net Margin63.1%56.0%56.5%42.6%

Why This Stock

TechnologyRevenue growth 114.2%Profit margin 55.8%Earnings quality grade A

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 100/100Score impact: -4.4pt

Volume
100
171.3M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$32.8B/day
Float
100
23.3B shares
Mkt Cap
100
$4.5T
Range
100
145% spread
Composite Liquidity Score100/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$11.57$34.6599.9%Wide
2022$10.81$30.7195.9%Wide
2023$14.03$50.55113.1%Wide
2024$47.32$152.89105.5%Wide
2025$86.62$212.1984%Wide
3-Year Range
175.2%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
95.8%
Outstanding Shares
24.3B
Bid-Ask Spread
145.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.