Back to Dashboard
57

ACLS

💻 Technology

Axcelis Technologies, Inc.

Conservative #359Aggressive #863Low RiskHigh 85
$80.02-2.14%
Day High$82.53
Day Low$78.87
Volume0.6M
Mkt Cap$2.5B
52W Low $4052W High $103
Market Cap
$2.5B
P/E Ratio
20.6
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
-17.6%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
-40.2%
Profit Margin
14.3%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.04

Why This Score

ACLS scores 57.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.04) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (85/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (12.5%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-1.1 points) applied. ACLS's rank of #359 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score57.8
Fundamental Score59.4
ML Score37.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
59.7
6 Month
66.8
Primary
1 Year
70.3

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
78
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
65
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
83
Grade A
Base
54.9
SHAP
+1.9
Factors
+0.7
Conviction
+1.4
Divergence
-1.1
Final
57.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)41.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)81.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)86.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-2.2% to +4.0%
Medium-term
-3.1% to +6.3%
Long-term
-3.9% to +8.6%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 37

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score64.6/100
Target Upside+38.0%
Coverage12 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score77.6/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum+0.7%
6M Momentum+0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+54.4%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.25)
Relative Strength vs Sector+69.0%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.591
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
28%
Moderate — watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P3
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P55
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P52
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
-0.6σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
YES
Below-sector growth + cheap PE
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 77 relative to sector peers77/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 69th percentileP69
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (77.0) + 9% ML (69.4) + SHAP(+2.4) = 78.7
Factor quality: +0.9pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 12.5%. Max drawdown 19% (-4.2 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: -4.0 points ($2.5B market cap)-4.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +1.8pt (conviction=85)
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #85 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ACLS57.820.6-17.6%14.3%$2.5B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy12 analysts
Buy: 8Hold: 3Sell: 1
Price Target
$110consensus
Low $110Median $110High $110
+37.5% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Axcelis Technologies, Inc. designs, manufactures, and services ion implantation and other processing equipment used in the fabrication of semiconductor chips in the United States, Europe, and Asia. The company offers high energy, high current, and medium current implanters for various application requirements. It also provides aftermarket lifecycle products and services, including used tools, spare parts, equipment upgrades, maintenance services, and customer training. It sells its equipment and services to semiconductor chip manufacturers through its direct sales force. The company was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Beverly, Massachusetts.

CEO
Russell J. Low
Employees
1,524
Beta
1.76
Industry
Semiconductors
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
47.1
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-22.3%
High: $102.93
From 52W Low
+98.1%
Low: $40.4
Moving Averages
10-Day
$85.90
Below
20-Day
$86.40
Below
50-Day
$87.50
Below
200-Day
$80.20
Below
60-Day Support
$75.31
60-Day Resistance
$100.62
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 25/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Transition signal: 3→4
Price vs 200 SMA
-0.2%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+14.42%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.96x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
1
Confidence: 50%
Recent Gap Down

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$238M$214M$195M$193M
Gross Profit$112M$89M$87M$89M
Operating Income$36M$25M$29M$29M
Net Income$34M$26M$31M$29M
EPS (Diluted)$1.10$0.83$0.98$0.88
Gross Margin47.0%41.6%44.9%46.1%
Operating Margin15.2%11.7%14.9%15.1%
Net Margin14.4%12.2%16.1%14.8%

Why This Stock

TechnologyP/E ratio of 20.6Profit margin 14.3%Earnings quality grade A

Tradability FilterGrade A — 83/100Score impact: -7.8pt

Volume
87
686K avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$54M/day
Float
61
31M shares
Mkt Cap
61
$2.5B
Range
100
155% spread
Composite Liquidity Score83/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$33.36$75.4077.3%Wide
2022$46.41$88.7362.6%Wide
2023$76.97$201.0089.2%Wide
2024$68.23$158.6179.7%Wide
2025$40.40$102.9387.3%Wide
3-Year Range
133.1%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.3x dampening
severe revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
98.5%
Outstanding Shares
31M
Bid-Ask Spread
155.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.