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IPGP

💻 Technology

IPG Photonics Corporation

Conservative #932Aggressive #1085Moderate RiskModerate 65
$138.85+5.43%
Day High$141.43
Day Low$130.12
Volume0.4M
Mkt Cap$5.8B
52W Low $4952W High $156
Market Cap
$5.6B
P/E Ratio
180.9
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
2.7%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
117.1%
Profit Margin
3.1%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

IPGP scores 37.3 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.00) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (165%) increases mean-reversion probability. 3-point penalty applied.
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated valuation at 180.9x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (19.8%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -10.1 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, IPGP would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score37.3
Fundamental Score53.3
ML Score4.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
50.7
6 Month
56.6
Primary
1 Year
59.6

Quality Assessment

D
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
68
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
63
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
79
Grade B
Base
38.4
SHAP
+2.9
Factors
+1.1
Divergence
-5.1
Final
37.3
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)44.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)86.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)83.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-0.3% to +4.1%
Medium-term
+0.4% to +7.1%
Long-term
+1.2% to +10.2%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 4

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score63.0/100
Target Upside+13.0%
Coverage27 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score67.6/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+1.6%
6M Momentum+0.9%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+76.4%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.54)
Relative Strength vs Sector+160.9%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+1.384
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P25
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P4
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P13
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
-0.2σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 50 relative to sector peers50/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 60th percentileP60
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.0pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (49.5) + 9% ML (57.9) + SHAP(+3.0) = 53.2
Factor quality: +1.1pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 19.8%. Max drawdown 16% (-3.2 pts)Moderate
Momentum mean-reversion: -4.2pt (164% 12m momentum)
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($5.6B market cap)+0.5 pts
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by -25 pointsGrade D
Quality concern: Earnings growth (117%) far exceeds revenue growth (2.7%) — margin expansion may not be sustainable; Earnings/revenue growth ratio of 43x — earnings quality suspect; High accrual ratio (-142.3%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #211 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
IPGP37.3180.92.7%3.1%$5.6B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy27 analysts
Buy: 15Hold: 11Sell: 1
Price Target
$152consensus
Low $110Median $165High $180
+9.2% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

IPG Photonics Corporation develops, manufactures, and sells various high-performance fiber lasers, fiber amplifiers, and diode lasers used in various applications primarily in materials processing worldwide. The company's laser products include hybrid fiber-solid state lasers with green and ultraviolet wavelengths; fiber pigtailed packaged diodes and fiber coupled direct diode laser systems; high-energy pulsed lasers, multi-wavelength and tunable lasers, and single-polarization and single-frequency lasers; and high-power optical fiber delivery cables, fiber couplers, beam switches, chillers, scanners, and other accessories. It also provides erbium-doped fiber and Raman amplifiers, and integrated communications systems, which are deployed in broadband networks; and ytterbium and thulium specialty fiber amplifiers and broadband light sources. In addition, the company offers integrated laser systems; 2D compact flat sheet cutter systems and multi-axis systems; welding seam stepper and picker, a fiber laser welding tool; high precision laser systems; specialized fiber laser systems; and optical transceiver and transponder modules for interconnecting electronic equipment, including Ethernet switches, IP routers and DWDM/SONET/SDH optical transport modules within telecommunications, cable multi-system operators, and data center networking applications. It's lasers and amplifiers are also used in materials processing, communications, and medical and advanced applications. The company markets its products to original equipment manufacturers, system integrators, and end users through direct sales force, as well as through agreements with independent sales representatives and distributors. IPG Photonics Corporation was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Oxford, Massachusetts.

CEO
Mark Milton Gitin
Employees
4,740
Beta
1.03
Industry
Semiconductors
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
69.1
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-10.9%
High: $155.82
From 52W Low
+185.8%
Low: $48.59
Moving Averages
10-Day
$135.70
Above
20-Day
$117.90
Above
50-Day
$94.00
Above
200-Day
$81.40
Above
60-Day Support
$71.38
60-Day Resistance
$155.82
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 100/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+70.6%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+13.37%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.85x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
37
Confidence: 90%
Breakout Volume ConfirmedRecent Gap Up

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$274M$251M$251M$228M
Gross Profit$99M$99M$94M$90M
Operating Income$3M$8M$104,000$2M
Net Income$13M$7M$7M$4M
EPS (Diluted)$0.31$0.18$0.16$0.09
Gross Margin36.1%39.5%37.3%39.4%
Operating Margin1.2%3.1%0.0%0.8%
Net Margin4.8%3.0%2.6%1.6%

Why This Stock

Technology

Tradability FilterGrade B — 79/100Score impact: -9.6pt

Volume
75
453K avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$61M/day
Float
57
27M shares
Mkt Cap
69
$5.6B
Range
100
221% spread
Composite Liquidity Score79/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$151.27$241.4345.9%Wide
2022$79.88$176.6375.4%Wide
2023$83.00$141.8552.3%Wide
2024$61.86$108.0954.4%Wide
2025$48.59$92.2162%Wide
3-Year Range
97.9%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
64.3%
Outstanding Shares
42M
Bid-Ask Spread
221.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.