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ASML

💻 Technology

ASML Holding N.V. - New York Re

Conservative #19Aggressive #24Low RiskMixed 58ML↑ 21pt
$1526.51+1.92%
Day High$1547.22
Day Low$1516.48
Volume1.3M
Mkt Cap$591.7B
52W Low $57952W High $1547
Market Cap
$546.0B
P/E Ratio
48.1
Sector avg: 87.4
Rev Growth
15.6%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
26.9%
Profit Margin
29.4%
Sector avg: -109.6%
Debt/Equity
0.14

Why This Score

ASML scores 77.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 49.0% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High net margin of 29.4%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Large-cap ($546B) with deep liquidity and institutional ownership.
  • ML model assigns a high-conviction signal (96/100), indicating strong pattern recognition across 82 features.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated valuation at 48.1x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (13.0%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-1.6 points) applied. ASML's rank of #19 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score77.8
Fundamental Score70.2
ML Score96.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
71.3
6 Month
79.7
Primary
1 Year
83.9

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
63
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
64
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
100
Grade A
Base
75.4
SHAP
+2.9
Factors
+1.1
Divergence
-1.6
Final
77.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

80AVG
Value55
Quality95
Growth90
Stability90
Investment70

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)76.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)89.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)57.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+4.3% to +9.4%
Medium-term
+7.3% to +15.2%
Long-term
+10.8% to +21.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 96

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score63.6/100
Target Upside-1.2%
Coverage44 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score62.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+1.0%
6M Momentum+0.9%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+10.5%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.90)
Relative Strength vs Sector+96.9%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.871
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
3%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P63
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P25
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P38
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 64 relative to sector peers64/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 85th percentileP85
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +4.4pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (63.7) + 9% ML (84.7) + SHAP(+4.4) = 70.0—
Factor quality: +1.6pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 13.0%. Max drawdown 13% (-2.1 pts)Low
Momentum mean-reversion: -1.0pt (101% 12m momentum)—
Market cap adjustment: +5.0 points ($546.0B market cap)+5.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -1.6pt (ML 21pt higher)—
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #5 of 290 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
TER72.290.95.4%19.2%$50.1B
Sector Average47.487.414.8%-109.6%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy44 analysts
Strong Buy: 1Buy: 25Hold: 15Sell: 3
Price Target
$1459consensus
Low $1150Median $1433High $1911
-4.5% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, markets, sells, and services advanced semiconductor equipment systems for chipmakers. It offers advanced semiconductor equipment systems, including lithography, metrology, and inspection systems. The company also provides extreme ultraviolet lithography systems; and deep ultraviolet lithography systems comprising immersion and dry lithography solutions to manufacture various range of semiconductor nodes and technologies. In addition, it offers metrology and inspection systems, including YieldStar optical metrology systems to assess the quality of patterns on the wafers; and HMI electron beam solutions to locate and analyze individual chip defects. Further, the company provides computational lithography solutions, and lithography systems and control software solutions; and refurbishes and upgrades lithography systems, as well as offers customer support and related services. It operates in Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, China, rest of Asia, the Netherlands, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the United States. The company was formerly known as ASM Lithography Holding N.V. and changed its name to ASML Holding N.V. in 2001. ASML Holding N.V. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Veldhoven, the Netherlands.

CEO
Christophe D. Fouquet
Employees
43,129
Beta
1.46
Industry
Semiconductors
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
81.6
Overbought
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-1.3%
High: $1547.22
From 52W Low
+163.9%
Low: $578.51
Moving Averages
10-Day
$1457.60
Above
20-Day
$1433.00
Above
50-Day
$1293.00
Above
200-Day
$972.90
Above
60-Day Support
$1010.01
60-Day Resistance
$1547.22
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 95/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+56.9%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+21.27%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.73x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%
Recent Gap Up

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$9.6B$7.5B$7.7B$7.7B
Gross Profit$5.0B$3.9B$4.0B$4.2B
Operating Income$3.4B$2.5B$3.1B$2.7B
Net Income$2.8B$2.1B$2.7B$2.4B
EPS (Diluted)$7.27$5.48$5.71$5.83
Gross Margin52.2%51.6%52.6%54.0%
Operating Margin35.3%32.8%40.8%35.4%
Net Margin29.2%28.3%34.8%30.4%

Why This Stock

TechnologyRevenue growth 15.6%Profit margin 29.4%Earnings quality grade A

Tradability FilterGrade A — 100/100Score impact: -3.0pt

Volume
100
1.7M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$2.5B/day
Float
100
387M shares
Mkt Cap
100
$546.0B
Range
100
158% spread
Composite Liquidity Score100/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$501.11$895.9356.5%Wide
2022$363.15$799.3675%Wide
2023$545.77$771.9834.3%Moderate
2024$645.45$1110.0952.9%Wide
2025$578.51$1141.7265.5%Wide
3-Year Range
70.6%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
99.9%
Outstanding Shares
388M
Bid-Ask Spread
158.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.