Back to Dashboard
48

DAVE

💻 Technology

Dave Inc.

Conservative #632Aggressive #633High RiskHigh 100
$172.41+1.83%
Day High$176.22
Day Low$170.00
Volume0.5M
Mkt Cap$2.3B
52W Low $6552W High $286
Market Cap
$2.4B
P/E Ratio
16.2
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
34.0%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
219.3%
Profit Margin
29.9%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.26

Why This Score

DAVE scores 47.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 65.9% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High net margin of 29.9%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • High conviction (100/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (35.0%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-4.4 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score47.6
Fundamental Score54.3
ML Score23.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
69.4
6 Month
77.6
Primary
1 Year
81.6

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
2.3%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
89
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
73
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
70
Grade Blow float
Base
46.0
SHAP
+1.3
Factors
+0.7
Conviction
+2.0
Divergence
-2.4
Final
47.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)89.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)41.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)90.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.2% to +1.2%
Medium-term
-7.8% to +1.8%
Long-term
-10.4% to +2.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 23

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score72.5/100
Target Upside+88.7%
Coverage10 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score89.0/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum+0.8%
6M Momentum-0.2%
Volatility+0.3%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+93.0%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.22)
Relative Strength vs Sector+72.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.2)
Momentum Quality+0.464
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
4%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P92
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P63
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P84
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
+0.5σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 80 relative to sector peers80/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 82th percentileP82
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (79.6) + 9% ML (81.8) + SHAP(+2.4) = 82.2
Factor quality: +1.3pt (multi-factor composite)
Market cap adjustment: -4.0 points ($2.4B market cap)-4.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.6pt (conviction=100)
Risk Factors
Risk assessment: high. Annualized volatility 35.0%. Max drawdown 39% (-12.0 pts)High
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-62.5%) — earnings quality concern; R&D-adjusted ROIC: 29.4% (original: 36.8%). Software - Application has ~20% R&D intensity. Capitalizing R&D over 5 years increases invested capital by ~50%.Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #145 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
DAVE47.616.234.0%29.9%$2.4B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy10 analysts
Buy: 9Hold: 1
Price Target
$310consensus
Low $274Median $309High $345
+79.5% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Dave Inc. provides a suite of financial products and services through its financial service online platform. The company offers Insights, a personal financial management tool to manage income and expenses between paychecks for members; ExtraCash, a free overdraft and short-term credit alternative, which allows members to advance funds to their account and avoid a fee; and Side Hustle, a job application portal. It also provides Dave Banking, a digital checking and demand deposit account. The company was founded in 2015 and is based in West Hollywood, California.

CEO
Jason Wilk
Employees
274
Beta
3.90
Industry
Software - Application
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
55.4
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-39.8%
High: $286.45
From 52W Low
+163.4%
Low: $65.46
Moving Averages
10-Day
$173.60
Below
20-Day
$173.20
Below
50-Day
$194.80
Below
200-Day
$209.40
Below
60-Day Support
$152.21
60-Day Resistance
$250.5
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 26/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-17.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+17.45%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.84x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
29
Confidence: 40%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$151M$132M$108M$101M
Gross Profit$109M$114M$101M$95M
Operating Income$46M$41M$35M$21M
Net Income$92M$9M$29M$17M
EPS (Diluted)$6.34$0.62$1.97$1.22
Gross Margin72.4%86.9%93.4%93.8%
Operating Margin30.5%31.2%32.6%20.8%
Net Margin61.1%6.9%26.7%16.7%

Why This Stock

TechnologyP/E ratio of 16.2Revenue growth 34.0%Profit margin 29.9%Earnings quality grade B

Tradability FilterGrade B — 70/100Score impact: +1.1pt

Volume
76
460K avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$76M/day
Float
16
10M shares
Mkt Cap
61
$2.4B
Range
100
338% spread
Composite Liquidity Score70/100
FDCBA
low float

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 6/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$307.84$331.847.5%Narrow
2022$8.10$491.07193.5%Wide
2023$4.47$10.1077.3%Wide
2024$7.73$108.50173.4%Wide
2025$65.46$286.45125.6%Wide
3-Year Range
193.9%
Narrow Years
1 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.15x dampening
weinstein declining

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
73.5%
Outstanding Shares
14M
Bid-Ask Spread
338.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.