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51

SPSC

๐Ÿ’ป Technology

SPS Commerce, Inc.

Conservative #529Aggressive #692Moderate RiskHigh 100
$54.14-0.06%
Day High$54.44
Day Low$52.56
Volume1.0M
Mkt Cap$2.0B
52W Low $5352W High $153
Market Cap
$2.2B
P/E Ratio
23.4
Sector avg: 87.4
Rev Growth
17.8%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
21.1%
Profit Margin
12.4%
Sector avg: -109.6%
Debt/Equity
0.01

Why This Score

SPSC scores 51.3 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.01) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (100/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Above-average volatility (11.5%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (0.0 points) applied. SPSC's rank of #529 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score51.3
Fundamental Score49.7
ML Score38.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
68.5
6 Month
76.6
Primary
1 Year
80.6

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
54
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
64
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
80
Grade A
Base
47.3
SHAP
+1.5
Factors
+0.7
Conviction
+1.8
Final
51.3
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)65.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)27.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)79.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+1.5% to +6.2%
Medium-term
+2.9% to +10.0%
Long-term
+4.3% to +13.9%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 38

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score63.6/100
Target Upside+55.5%
Coverage22 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score53.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.5%
6M Momentum-0.4%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-9.7%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.82)
Relative Strength vs Sector-57.1%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (4.6)
Momentum Quality-0.231
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
11%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P68
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P50
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P71
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
+0.2ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 85 relative to sector peers85/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 80th percentileP80
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.0pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (84.6) + 9% ML (80.4) + SHAP(+3.0) = 87.2โ€”
Factor quality: +1.3pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 11.5%. Max drawdown 57% (-12.0 pts). Price momentum -54% (-9.7 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -4.0 points ($2.2B market cap)-4.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.6pt (conviction=100)โ€”
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-91.5%) โ€” earnings quality concern; R&D-adjusted ROIC: 7.7% (original: 8.7%). Software - Infrastructure has ~22% R&D intensity. Capitalizing R&D over 5 years increases invested capital by ~55%.Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology โ€” Rank #125 of 290 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
SPSC51.323.417.8%12.4%$2.2B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.414.8%-109.6%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold22 analysts
Strong Buy: 2Buy: 8Hold: 12
Price Target
$86consensus
Low $65Median $83High $110
+58.2% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

SPS Commerce, Inc. provides cloud-based supply chain management solutions worldwide. It offers solutions through the SPS Commerce, a cloud-based platform that enhances the way retailers, suppliers, grocers, distributors, and logistics firms manage and fulfill omnichannel orders, optimize sell-through performance, and automate new trading relationships. The company also provides Fulfillment solution that provides fulfillment automation and replaces or augments an organization's existing staff and trading partner electronic communication infrastructure by enabling easy compliance with retailers' rulebooks, automatic, and digital exchange of information among numerous trading partners through various protocols, and greater visibility into the journey of an order; and Analytics solution, which consists of data analytics applications that enables customers to enhance their visibility across supply chains through greater analytics capabilities. In addition, it offers various complimentary products, such as assortment product, which enables accurate order management and rapid fulfillment; and community product that accelerates vendor onboarding and ensures trading partner adoption of new supply chain requirements. The company was formerly known as St. Paul Software, Inc. and changed its name to SPS Commerce, Inc. in May 2001. SPS Commerce, Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

CEO
Chadwick Collins
Employees
2,783
Beta
0.56
Industry
Software - Infrastructure
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
1.8
Oversold
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-64.7%
High: $153.16
From 52W Low
+3%
Low: $52.56
Moving Averages
10-Day
$59.30
Below
20-Day
$71.10
Below
50-Day
$83.00
Below
200-Day
$107.40
Below
60-Day Support
$52.56
60-Day Resistance
$96.54
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 0/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-49.6%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-12.6%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.94x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%
Recent Gap Down

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$193M$190M$187M$182M
Gross Profit$126M$132M$128M$125M
Operating Income$35M$31M$26M$26M
Net Income$26M$26M$20M$22M
EPS (Diluted)$0.68$0.67$0.52$0.58
Gross Margin65.5%69.5%68.1%68.7%
Operating Margin18.0%16.4%14.1%14.3%
Net Margin13.4%13.5%10.5%12.2%

Why This Stock

TechnologyP/E ratio of 23.4Revenue growth 17.8%Profit margin 12.4%Valuation below sector median (P/E 23.4)

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 80/100Score impact: -3.9pt

Volume
87
670K avg/day
Dollar Vol
91
$36M/day
Float
60
0K shares
Mkt Cap
60
$2.2B
Range
100
184% spread
Composite Liquidity Score80/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$91.05$174.4262.8%Wide
2022$96.41$146.8141.4%Wide
2023$120.66$198.3548.7%Wide
2024$160.58$218.7430.7%Moderate
2025$73.05$197.5992%Wide
3-Year Range
99.9%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
184.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.