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33

HPK

⚡ Energy

HighPeak Energy, Inc.

Conservative #1048Aggressive #1398High RiskHigh 100
$4.98-1.97%
Day High$5.09
Day Low$4.81
Volume0.4M
Mkt Cap$625M
52W Low $452W High $14
Market Cap
$666M
P/E Ratio
12.4
Sector avg: 29.9
Rev Growth
-3.8%
Sector avg: 44.1%
Earnings Growth
-56.0%
Profit Margin
6.0%
Sector avg: 0.1%
Debt/Equity
0.02

Why This Score

HPK scores 32.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 12.4x earnings, below the market average.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.02) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (100/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Commodity beta: Oil & Gas E&P stocks carry a 5-point penalty for commodity price sensitivity.
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (16.1%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-7.9 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score32.7
Fundamental Score40.7
ML Score20.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
76.3
6 Month
85.2
Primary
1 Year
89.7

Quality Assessment

C
Earnings Grade
Mixed fundamentals, potential quality issues
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (-949.8%) — earnings quality concern
Commodity beta: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production earnings driven by commodity prices — cyclical risk not captured by trailing fundamentals

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
58
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
69
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
64
Grade Blow dollar volume
Base
29.6
Factors
+1.1
Conviction
+2.9
Divergence
-0.9
Final
32.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)49.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)27.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)82.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+2.1% to +9.4%
Medium-term
+3.4% to +14.4%
Long-term
+5.7% to +20.7%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 20

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score68.8/100
Target Upside+129.7%
Coverage4 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score57.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.6%
6M Momentum-0.3%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-26.7%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.55)
Relative Strength vs Sector-76.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.7)
Momentum Quality-0.219
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
10%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P56
Revenue growth vs Energy peers
Sector PE Rank
P40
Valuation vs Energy peers
Sector FCF Rank
P56
Free cash flow vs Energy peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 88 relative to sector peers88/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 90th percentileP90
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: -1.6pt (features diverge from model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (87.5) + 9% ML (90.3) + SHAP(-1.6) = 86.1
Factor quality: +1.3pt (multi-factor composite)
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.7B market cap)-15.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.6pt (conviction=100)
Risk Factors
Risk assessment: high. Annualized volatility 16.1%. Max drawdown 63% (-12.0 pts). Price momentum -60% (-10.0 pts)High
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by -17 pointsGrade C
Quality concern: Non-operating loss: operating margin (27.2%) exceeds net margin (6.0%) by 21pp — possible write-down; High accrual ratio (-949.8%) — earnings quality concern; Commodity beta: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production earnings driven by commodity prices — cyclical risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Energy — Rank #16 of 25 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
HPK32.712.4-3.8%6.0%$666M
VNOM71.918.24.0%41.8%$14.4B
FANG67.911.932.2%30.3%$48.5B
TRMD63.89.72.6%21.4%$2.8B
WFRD61.217.1-10.8%8.8%$7.3B
CHRD60.834.534.8%16.2%$5.8B
BKR57.423.5-0.3%9.3%$60.5B
CLMT50.6N/A-100.0%0.0%$2.4B
SHLS49.954.1-18.4%7.7%$1.8B
APA47.36.717.6%8.3%$10.0B
ENPH45.035.410.7%11.7%$6.1B
EXE44.733.5-45.7%-16.9%$24.8B
GLNG41.779.9-12.8%18.0%$4.7B
PTEN41.5N/A-10.3%-1.9%$3.2B
APC40.415.712.4%4.6%$11.5B
PNRG35.412.390.0%12.9%$310M
Sector Average39.629.944.1%0.1%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy4 analysts
Buy: 3Hold: 1
Price Target
$12consensus
Low $12Median $12High $12
+141.0% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

HighPeak Energy, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in the Midland Basin in West Texas. As of December 31, 2021, the company had approximately 64,213 MBoe of proved reserves. HighPeak Energy, Inc. was incorporated in 2019 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas.

CEO
Michael L. Hollis
Employees
47
Beta
0.67
Industry
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
50.6
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-62.8%
High: $13.38
From 52W Low
+29.4%
Low: $3.85
Moving Averages
10-Day
$5.10
Below
20-Day
$4.90
Above
50-Day
$4.60
Above
200-Day
$7.20
Below
60-Day Support
$3.85
60-Day Resistance
$7
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 10/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-30.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-20.68%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$189M$200M$257M$235M
Gross Profit$45M$53M$97M$82M
Operating Income$33M$43M$90M$74M
Net Income$-18M$26M$36M$9M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.15$0.19$0.29$0.06
Gross Margin23.8%26.5%37.8%35.0%
Operating Margin17.3%21.7%35.1%31.4%
Net Margin-9.7%13.1%14.1%3.8%

Why This Stock

EnergyP/E ratio of 12.4Valuation below sector median (P/E 12.4)

Tradability FilterGrade B — 64/100Score impact: -18.6pt

Volume
94
851K avg/day
Dollar Vol
42
$4M/day
Float
51
21M shares
Mkt Cap
33
$666M
Range
100
257% spread
Composite Liquidity Score64/100
FDCBA
low dollar volume

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$6.00$16.5093.3%Wide
2022$14.56$38.2189.6%Wide
2023$10.44$30.1597.1%Wide
2024$12.47$17.4833.5%Moderate
2025$4.18$15.72116%Wide
3-Year Range
151.3%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.49x dampening
weinstein basingslight revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
16.6%
Outstanding Shares
126M
Bid-Ask Spread
257.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.