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CYTK

🏥 Healthcare

Cytokinetics, Incorporated

Conservative #828Aggressive #216Moderate RiskLow 17F↑ 26pt
$62.89-10.29%
Day High$69.28
Day Low$62.02
Volume5.0M
Mkt Cap$7.7B
52W Low $2952W High $71
Market Cap
$8.3B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
145.3%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
-12.0%
Profit Margin
-862.2%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

CYTK scores 40.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 232.9% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E -2.30) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (19.2%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -13.2 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, CYTK would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score40.7
Fundamental Score44.2
ML Score70.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
12.2
6 Month
13.6
Primary
1 Year
14.3

Quality Assessment

F
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns
Quality Flags
Negative ROIC (-43.0%) with high ROE (232.9%) — capital structure distortion (possibly negative equity or one-time gain)
Speculative Classification
Anomalous margin data — extreme values suggest one-time events or accounting irregularities.
Conservative score reduced by 4 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4.2%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
78
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
74
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
96
Grade A
Base
45.4
SHAP
+0.7
Factors
-0.6
Conviction
-3.2
Divergence
-1.6
Final
40.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)72.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)80.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)88.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-14.5% to -8.5%
Medium-term
-19.5% to -11.0%
Long-term
-24.6% to -13.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 70

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score73.5/100
Target Upside+34.9%
Coverage33 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score77.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.4%
6M Momentum+0.9%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-43.5%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.50)
Relative Strength vs Sector+19.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.3)
Momentum Quality+0.319
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P94
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P40
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P35
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 55 relative to sector peers55/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 29th percentileP29
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +0.7pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (55.0) + 9% ML (27.0) + SHAP(+0.7) = 53.1—
Factor quality: -0.6pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 19.2%. Max drawdown 28% (-7.8 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($8.3B market cap)+0.5 pts
Conviction penalty: -3.2pt (conviction=17)—
Divergence penalty: -2.4pt (fund 26pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade F: assessed. Score adjusted by -29 pointsGrade F
Quality concern: Non-operating loss: operating margin (-656.9%) exceeds net margin (-862.2%) by 205pp — possible write-down; Negative ROIC (-43.0%) with high ROE (232.9%) — capital structure distortion (possibly negative equity or one-time gain); High accrual ratio (42.4%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #130 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
CYTK40.7N/A145.3%-862.2%$8.3B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy33 analysts
Buy: 31Hold: 2
Price Target
$92consensus
Low $61Median $90High $136
+45.6% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Cytokinetics, Incorporated, a late-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on discovering, developing, and commercializing muscle activators and inhibitors as potential treatments for debilitating diseases. The company develops small molecule drug candidates primarily engineered to impact muscle function and contractility. Its drug candidates include omecamtiv mecarbil, a novel cardiac myosin activator that is in Phase III clinical trial in patients with heart failure; and reldesemtiv, a skeletal muscle troponin activator, which is in Phase III clinical trial to treat amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and spinal muscular atrophy. The company also develops CK-136, a novel cardiac troponin activator that is in Phase I clinical trial; aficamten, a novel cardiac myosin inhibitor, which is in Phase III clinical trial for the treatment of patients with symptomatic obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy; and CK-3772271, a small molecule cardiac myosin inhibitor that is in Phase I clinical trial. Cytokinetics, Incorporated has a strategic alliance with Astellas Pharma Inc. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.

CEO
Robert I. Blum
Employees
498
Beta
0.55
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
48.7
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-11.4%
High: $70.98
From 52W Low
+114.6%
Low: $29.31
Moving Averages
10-Day
$66.90
Below
20-Day
$65.30
Below
50-Day
$64.00
Below
200-Day
$50.60
Above
60-Day Support
$58.85
60-Day Resistance
$70.98
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 86/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+24.3%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+15.15%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.04x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$18M$2M$67M$2M
Gross Profit$18M$-743,000$64M$-98M
Operating Income$-178M$-167M$-112M$-156M
Net Income$-183M$-306M$-134M$-161M
EPS (Diluted)$-1.50$-2.55$-1.12$-1.36
Gross Margin100.0%-38.4%96.6%-6223.1%
Operating Margin-1004.6%-8613.4%-167.0%-9856.3%
Net Margin-1030.9%-15815.0%-201.2%-10220.1%

Why This Stock

HealthcareRevenue growth 145.3%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 96/100Score impact: -26.4pt

Volume
100
1.9M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$127M/day
Float
100
121M shares
Mkt Cap
76
$8.3B
Range
100
142% spread
Composite Liquidity Score96/100
FDCBA
Free Float
99.2%
Outstanding Shares
122M
Bid-Ask Spread
142.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.