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22

ABVX

🏥 Healthcare

Abivax S.A.

Aggressive #1279High RiskF↑ 47pt
$123.33-3.87%
Day High$127.14
Day Low$122.16
Volume0.9M
Mkt Cap$8.1B
52W Low $552W High $149
Market Cap
$8.5B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
133.5%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
-19.3%
Profit Margin
-3244.0%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

ABVX scores 22.1 on the Aggressive profile, blending a fundamental score (55% weight, emphasizing growth and momentum (91% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (45% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 5077.7% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E -2.04) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • Strong momentum (1527%) — the market is rewarding this name.
Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (1527%) increases mean-reversion probability. 5-point penalty applied.
  • Procyclicality: Late-cycle macro signals reduce confidence in extreme-momentum names. 2-point additional penalty.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Net penalties of -23.4 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, ABVX would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score22.1
Fundamental Score71.5
ML Score2.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
2.0
6 Month
2.2
Primary
1 Year
2.3

Quality Assessment

F
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns
Quality Flags
Negative ROIC (-347.7%) with high ROE (5077.7%) — capital structure distortion (possibly negative equity or one-time gain)
Speculative Classification
Anomalous margin data — extreme values suggest one-time events or accounting irregularities.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
1.7%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
72
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
93
Grade A
Base
33.2
SHAP
+1.2
Factors
-1.3
Conviction
-2.8
Divergence
-8.2
Final
22.1
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)70.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)73.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)87.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-21.5% to -14.5%
Medium-term
-30.8% to -20.5%
Long-term
-38.7% to -25.3%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 2

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+13.0%
Coverage8 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score72.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+15.3%
6M Momentum+0.5%
Volatility+2.3%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+1473.2%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.04)
Relative Strength vs Sector+1502.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+12.589
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P93
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P39
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P52
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 62 relative to sector peers62/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 15th percentileP15
ML model weight reduced to 26% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected26% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.2pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 74% fund (62.1) + 26% ML (13.9) + SHAP(+1.2) = 50.8
Factor quality: -1.3pt (multi-factor composite)
Momentum mean-reversion: -3.0pt (1527% 12m momentum)
Conviction penalty: -2.8pt (conviction=0)
Divergence penalty: -2.6pt (fund 47pt higher)
Risk Factors
Risk assessment: very_high. Extreme vol 230.4% → -10.0pt; Strong momentum 1527% → +12.0ptVery_high
Earnings quality grade F: assessed. Score adjusted by -30 pointsGrade F
Quality concern: Non-operating gain: net margin (-3244.0%) exceeds operating margin (-3306.2%) by 62pp — likely one-time item; Negative ROIC (-347.7%) with high ROE (5077.7%) — capital structure distortion (possibly negative equity or one-time gain); High accrual ratio (29.9%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #285 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ABVX22.1N/A133.5%-3244.0%$8.5B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy8 analysts
Buy: 8
Price Target
$143consensus
Low $110Median $142High $176
+15.5% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

ABIVAX Société Anonyme discovers and optimizes drugs for the treatment of inflammatory diseases, infectious diseases, and cancer in France. Its principal products include ABX464 that is in Phase IIb clinical trials for the treatment of ulcerative colitis and Crohn's Disease, as well as for COVID-19; Phase IIa clinical trial for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis diseases; and has completed Phase IIa clinical trial for the treatment of viral remission in patients with HIV. It also develops ABX 196, an immune enhancer candidate that is in Phase 1/2 clinical trials for the treatment of hepatocellular cancer. In addition, the company engages in the research programs for the treatment of Dengue fever, influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus. ABIVAX Société Anonyme has license contracts with the French National Centre for Scientific Research, the University of Montpellier, and the Institut Curie. The company was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Paris, France.

CEO
Marc de Garidel
Employees
69
Beta
-0.42
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
63.6
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-17.1%
High: $148.83
From 52W Low
+2485.5%
Low: $4.77
Moving Averages
10-Day
$127.00
Below
20-Day
$120.70
Above
50-Day
$122.80
Above
200-Day
$78.00
Above
60-Day Support
$107.06
60-Day Resistance
$148.83
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 90/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+58.1%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+79.82%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.62x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ2 2025Q4 2024Q2 2024Q4 2023
Revenue$2M$7M$3M$2M
Gross Profit$2M$7M$3M$2M
Operating Income$-94M$-133M$-40M$-92M
Net Income$-101M$-95M$-41M$-96M
EPS (Diluted)$-1.59$-1.50$-0.65$-1.98
Gross Margin100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
Operating Margin-4645.3%-1797.3%-1178.9%-3975.2%
Net Margin-4996.7%-1278.6%-1203.0%-4118.1%

Why This Stock

HealthcareRevenue growth 133.5%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 93/100Score impact: -19.7pt

Volume
100
1.5M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$202M/day
Float
84
59M shares
Mkt Cap
77
$8.5B
Range
100
3020% spread
Composite Liquidity Score93/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2024$6.53$17.0289.1%Wide
2025$4.77$148.83187.6%Wide
3-Year Range
187.6%
Narrow Years
0 / 2
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
89.8%
Outstanding Shares
66M
Bid-Ask Spread
3020.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.