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28

MDGL

🏥 Healthcare

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Conservative #1153Aggressive #873Moderate RiskHigh 87
$435.01-1.13%
Day High$446.50
Day Low$434.67
Volume0.3M
Mkt Cap$9.9B
52W Low $26552W High $615
Market Cap
$9.9B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
432.1%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
38.1%
Profit Margin
-30.1%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.59

Why This Score

MDGL scores 28.4 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Positive but moderate momentum (36%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
  • High conviction (87/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (19.1%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-6.5 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score28.4
Fundamental Score35.9
ML Score11.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
57.2
6 Month
63.9
Primary
1 Year
67.3

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Speculative Classification
Speculative growth — negative margins and ROE with momentum-driven price action. High risk of mean reversion.
Conservative score reduced by 3 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4.2%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
83
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
71
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
76
Grade B
Base
25.9
SHAP
+1.0
Factors
+1.3
Conviction
+1.7
Divergence
-1.5
Final
28.4
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)64.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)72.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)88.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+0.1% to +4.5%
Medium-term
+1.1% to +7.8%
Long-term
+2.1% to +11.2%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 11

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score70.7/100
Target Upside+60.5%
Coverage23 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score83.1/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.4%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+30.0%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.17)
Relative Strength vs Sector+11.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (1.9)
Momentum Quality+0.282
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P96
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P40
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P50
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.3σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 60 relative to sector peers60/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 67th percentileP67
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.2pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (60.3) + 9% ML (64.8) + SHAP(+1.2) = 61.9
Factor quality: +1.6pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 19.2%. Max drawdown 22% (-5.7 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($9.9B market cap)+0.5 pts
Conviction bonus: +2.0pt (conviction=87)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (34.2%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #234 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
MDGL28.4N/A432.1%-30.1%$9.9B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy23 analysts
Buy: 20Hold: 2Sell: 1
Price Target
$706consensus
Low $527Median $640High $964
+62.2% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapeutic candidates for the treatment of cardiovascular, metabolic, and liver diseases. Its lead product candidate is resmetirom, a liver-directed selective thyroid hormone receptor-ß agonist, which is in Phase III clinical trials for the treatment of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis. The company also develops MGL-3745, a backup compound to resmetirom. It has research, development, and commercialization agreement with Hoffmann-La Roche. Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is headquartered in West Conshohocken, Pennsylvania.

CEO
William J. Sibold
Employees
528
Beta
-1.02
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
36.5
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-29.3%
High: $615
From 52W Low
+64.2%
Low: $265
Moving Averages
10-Day
$458.30
Below
20-Day
$471.10
Below
50-Day
$516.20
Below
200-Day
$424.10
Above
60-Day Support
$424.2
60-Day Resistance
$615
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 62/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+2.6%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+16.41%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.24x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%
Recent Gap Down

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$321M$287M$213M$137M
Gross Profit$297M$269M$204M$133M
Operating Income$-60M$-114M$-47M$-79M
Net Income$-59M$-114M$-42M$-73M
EPS (Diluted)$-2.57$-5.08$-1.90$-3.32
Gross Margin92.4%93.7%95.7%96.7%
Operating Margin-18.6%-39.7%-22.2%-57.8%
Net Margin-18.2%-39.8%-19.9%-53.4%

Why This Stock

HealthcareRevenue growth 432.1%

Tradability FilterGrade B — 76/100Score impact: -22.7pt

Volume
63
325K avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$142M/day
Float
51
21M shares
Mkt Cap
80
$9.9B
Range
100
132% spread
Composite Liquidity Score76/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$68.56$142.6270.1%Wide
2022$52.33$315.45143.1%Wide
2023$119.76$322.6791.7%Wide
2024$168.25$368.2974.6%Wide
2025$265.00$615.0079.5%Wide
3-Year Range
134.8%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
91.8%
Outstanding Shares
23M
Bid-Ask Spread
132.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.