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57

NUVL

🏥 Healthcare

Nuvalent, Inc.

Conservative #370Aggressive #494Low RiskMixed 45F↑ 27pt
$104.53-0.40%
Day High$107.61
Day Low$103.86
Volume0.4M
Mkt Cap$7.6B
52W Low $5652W High $113
Market Cap
$7.3B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
0.0%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
-106.6%
Profit Margin
0.0%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

NUVL scores 57.3 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.00) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (34%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Moderate penalties (-3.5 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score57.3
Fundamental Score54.0
ML Score78.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
19.8
6 Month
22.1
Primary
1 Year
23.2

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
62
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
86
Grade A
Base
58.8
SHAP
+0.9
Factors
-0.6
Conviction
-0.5
Divergence
-1.4
Final
57.3
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)42.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)87.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)72.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-9.7% to -3.7%
Medium-term
-12.7% to -4.2%
Long-term
-15.8% to -4.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 78

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage13 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score61.7/100
News Volume0 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.3%
6M Momentum+0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+2.8%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.92)
Relative Strength vs Sector+10.1%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (4.9)
Momentum Quality+0.317
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
10%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P41
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P40
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P41
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 63 relative to sector peers63/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 35th percentileP35
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +0.9pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (62.6) + 9% ML (32.1) + SHAP(+0.9) = 60.7—
Factor quality: -0.6pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 7.0%. Max drawdown 8% (-0.0 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($7.3B market cap)+0.5 pts
Divergence penalty: -2.6pt (fund 27pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (30.8%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #50 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
NUVL57.3N/A0.0%0.0%$7.3B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy13 analysts
Buy: 13
Price Target
$133consensus
Low $105Median $132High $155
+27.3% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Nuvalent, Inc., a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company, develops therapies for patients with cancer. Its lead product candidates are NVL-520, a brain-penetrant ROS1-selective inhibitor to inhibit ROS1 fusions that express the normal ROS1 kinase domain without any drug-resistant mutations and remain active in the presence of mutations conferring resistance to approved and investigational ROS1 inhibitors, which is under Phase I development; and NVL-655, a brain-penetrant ALK-selective inhibitor, to address the clinical challenges of emergent treatment resistance, central nervous system-related adverse events, and brain metastases that might limit the use of first-, second-, and third-generation ALK inhibitors that is under Phase I/II clinical trial. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

CEO
James R. Porter
Employees
162
Beta
1.32
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
49.0
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-7.5%
High: $113.02
From 52W Low
+88.2%
Low: $55.54
Moving Averages
10-Day
$102.70
Above
20-Day
$103.00
Above
50-Day
$103.50
Above
200-Day
$89.20
Above
60-Day Support
$95.51
60-Day Resistance
$113.02
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 82/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+17.2%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+11.6%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.92x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$0$0$0$0
Gross Profit$0$0$0$0
Operating Income$-113M$-105M$-95M$-86M
Net Income$-122M$-100M$-85M$-75M
EPS (Diluted)$-1.70$-1.39$-1.18$-1.05
Gross MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A
Operating MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A
Net MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A

Why This Stock

Healthcare

Tradability FilterGrade A — 86/100Score impact: -9.0pt

Volume
84
599K avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$62M/day
Float
75
45M shares
Mkt Cap
74
$7.3B
Range
100
104% spread
Composite Liquidity Score86/100
FDCBA
Free Float
61.5%
Outstanding Shares
73M
Bid-Ask Spread
104.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.