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KROS

๐Ÿฅ Healthcare

Keros Therapeutics, Inc.

Conservative #473Aggressive #601Moderate RiskFโ†‘ 19pt
$14.19-5.59%
Day High$14.98
Day Low$13.97
Volume0.3M
Mkt Cap$575M
52W Low $952W High $23
Market Cap
$587M
P/E Ratio
10.2
Sector avg: 41.9
Rev Growth
2251.0%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
-22.5%
Profit Margin
26.1%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.02

Why This Score

KROS scores 55.5 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 26.1%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 10.2x earnings, below the market average.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.02) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (14.2%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-5.2 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score55.5
Fundamental Score64.3
ML Score28.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
57.2
6 Month
63.9
Primary
1 Year
67.3

Quality Assessment

C
Quality Grade
Average quality โ€” moderate profitability or leverage
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $0.7B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
86
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
64
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
68
Grade B
Base
55.1
SHAP
+2.4
Factors
+1.2
Divergence
-3.2
Final
55.5
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

67AVG
Value87
Quality50
Growth53
Stability76
Investment67

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)61.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)79.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)87.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-0.9% to +3.2%
Medium-term
-0.7% to +5.7%
Long-term
-0.5% to +8.2%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 28

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score64.1/100
Target Upside+500.0%
Coverage16 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score85.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum+0.5%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+40.6%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.18)
Relative Strength vs Sector+25.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.5)
Momentum Quality+0.404
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
2%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P98
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P95
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P96
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+1.6ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 64 relative to sector peers64/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 28th percentileP28
Blended score: 80% fundamental (64) + 20% ML (28) = 57.057.0
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 19% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade C
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Divergence penalty: -3.2pt (ML 36pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Quality concern: Pipeline concentration: $0.7B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare โ€” Rank #62 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
KROS55.510.22251.0%26.1%$587M
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$20.2B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$18.1B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$2.9B
ASND78.316.698.0%-31.7%$14.0B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$125.2B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.3B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.8B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$210.2B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$48.0B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$81.3B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$177.8B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
Sector Average36.641.9161.5%-3292.7%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy16 analysts
Buy: 9Hold: 7
Price Target
$103consensus
Low $96Median $105High $107
+623.0% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Keros Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of novel treatments for patients suffering from hematological and musculoskeletal disorders with high unmet medical need. The company's lead protein therapeutic product candidate is KER-050, which is being developed for the treatment of low blood cell counts, or cytopenias, including anemia and thrombocytopenia in patients with myelodysplastic syndromes, and in patients with myelofibrosis. It is also developing small molecule product candidate KER-047 that is being developed for the treatment of anemia, and is currently in Phase 1 clinical trial; and KER-012, which is in Phase 1 clinical trial to treat disorders associated with bone loss, such as osteoporosis and osteogenesis imperfecta, and for the treatment of pulmonary arterial hypertension. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Lexington, Massachusetts.

CEO
Jasbir S. Seehra
Employees
163
Beta
0.84
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
9.2
Oversold
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-37.1%
High: $22.55
From 52W Low
+55.6%
Low: $9.12
Moving Averages
10-Day
$15.80
Below
20-Day
$16.70
Below
50-Day
$18.40
Below
200-Day
$16.10
Below
60-Day Support
$13.98
60-Day Resistance
$22.55
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 29/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Transition signal: 3โ†’4
Price vs 200 SMA
-11.9%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+14.34%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.87x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
5
Confidence: 50%

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid
No Entry
โ€”
No entry โ€” active downtrend
Exit Target
โ€”
Exit position if held
Stop Level
โ€”
No stop โ€” exit recommended

Stage 4 downtrend โ€” price is below both SMA50 and SMA200 with a declining 200-day average. Capital preservation takes priority. Do not buy into a downtrend.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$14M$18M$211M$3M
Gross Profit$14M$18M$211M$3M
Operating Income$-15M$-40M$152M$-53M
Net Income$-7M$-31M$148M$-46M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.18$-0.76$3.62$-1.14
Gross Margin97.2%98.0%100.0%89.1%
Operating Margin-107.9%-219.2%72.0%-1750.6%
Net Margin-51.0%-169.0%70.3%-1513.0%

Why This Stock

HealthcareP/E ratio of 10.2Revenue growth 2251.0%Profit margin 26.1%Valuation below sector median (P/E 10.2)

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 68/100Score impact: -2.2pt

Volume
84
605K avg/day
Dollar Vol
59
$10M/day
Float
67
37M shares
Mkt Cap
33
$587M
Range
100
147% spread
Composite Liquidity Score68/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$28.50$71.7486.3%Wide
2022$24.38$68.2994.8%Wide
2023$27.02$59.9675.7%Wide
2024$15.33$73.00130.6%Wide
2025$9.12$22.5584.8%Wide
3-Year Range
155.6%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
92.3%
Outstanding Shares
41M
Bid-Ask Spread
147.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.