MLYS

🏥 Healthcare

Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc.

Conservative #1335Aggressive #1263High RiskLow 21F↑ 39pt

$29.23-2.44%

Day High$29.97

Day Low$28.54

Volume0.8M

Mkt Cap$1.9B

52W Low $852W High $48

Market Cap

$1.8B

P/E Ratio

N/A

Rev Growth

0.0%

Sector avg: 161.5%

Earnings Growth

-147.3%

Profit Margin

0.0%

Sector avg: -3292.7%

Debt/Equity

N/A

Why This Score

MLYS scores 18.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths

Minimal leverage (D/E 0.00) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.

Risk Factors

Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (202%) increases mean-reversion probability. 5-point penalty applied.
Procyclicality: Late-cycle macro signals reduce confidence in extreme-momentum names. 2-point additional penalty.
Above-average volatility (45.3%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -17.1 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, MLYS would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score18.8

Fundamental Score35.4

ML Score17.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month

6.8

6 Month

7.6

Primary

1 Year

8.0

Quality Assessment

Earnings Grade

Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Quality Flags

Pipeline concentration: $1.8B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary risk

Speculative Classification

Conservative score reduced by 3 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation

1.8%

Confidence

high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score

Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)

Weinstein (12.1%)

100

Advancing

Sentiment (2.5%)

Positive

Analyst (6.4%)

Favorable

Tradability (post-hoc)

Grade A

Base

21.7

SHAP

+0.9

Factors

-0.5

Conviction

-2.8

Divergence

-0.5

Final

18.8

Positive adjustment

Negative adjustment

Base blend

Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)42.0

Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)67.0

External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)90.0

Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score

Features

Confidence

Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term

-14.8% to -7.6%

Medium-term

-19.9% to -9.6%

Long-term

-25.0% to -11.7%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 17

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence

Consensus Score71.9/100

Target Upside+78.7%

Coverage8 analysts

Market Sentiment

Sentiment Score88.8/100

News Volume1 articles

Technical Stage

Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing

12M Momentum+2.0%

6M Momentum+0.8%

Volatility+0.5%

Momentum & Technical

Momentum Acceleration+123.7%

Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.39)

Relative Strength vs Sector+177.6%

Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (4.5)

Momentum Quality+1.293

Momentum BreadthBroad ✓

Macro Regime

Bull RegimeYes

High Vol RegimeNo

S&P 500 Return+25.0%

Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal

Low risk

Sector RevGr Rank

P41

Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers

Sector PE Rank

P40

Valuation vs Healthcare peers

Sector FCF Rank

P23

Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers

Growth Deviation

-0.0σ

Z-score vs sector median

Stagnation Flag

Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors

Fundamental score of 62 relative to sector peers62/100

Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 23th percentileP23

ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight

SHAP feature alignment: +0.9pt (features align with model priorities)—

Blend: 91% fund (62.1) + 9% ML (20.8) + SHAP(+0.9) = 59.3—

Factor quality: -0.5pt (multi-factor composite)—

Momentum mean-reversion: -6.0pt (202% 12m momentum)—

Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.8B market cap)-8.0 pts

Conviction penalty: -2.8pt (conviction=21)—

Divergence penalty: -4.4pt (fund 39pt higher)—

Risk Factors

Risk assessment: high. Annualized volatility 45.3%. Max drawdown 36% (-11.2 pts)High

Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -7 pointsGrade A

Quality concern: Pipeline concentration: $1.8B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #301 of 344 stocks)

Stock	Score	P/E	Rev Growth	Margin	Mkt Cap
MLYSMineralys Therapeutics, Inc.	18.8	N/A	0.0%	0.0%	$1.8B
INCYIncyte Corporation	89.6	15.8	21.2%	25.0%	$20.1B
GMABGenmab A/S	85.5	13.1	22.8%	36.4%	$18.5B
CPRXCatalyst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.	82.2	13.7	23.5%	37.6%	$3.0B
VRTXVertex Pharmaceuticals Incorpor	78.0	32.1	8.9%	32.9%	$126.0B
ASNDAscendis Pharma A/S	75.7	16.6	98.0%	-31.7%	$13.3B
NBIXNeurocrine Biosciences, Inc.	74.7	26.5	21.4%	16.7%	$12.5B
ALKSAlkermes plc	74.6	16.5	-6.4%	23.9%	$5.5B
AMGNAmgen Inc.	73.8	26.0	10.0%	21.0%	$199.0B
ARGXargenx SE	73.6	35.1	78.6%	38.0%	$50.9B
HOLXHologic, Inc.	73.3	31.1	1.7%	13.8%	$16.8B
REGNRegeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc.	72.7	19.4	1.0%	31.4%	$84.9B
ISRGIntuitive Surgical, Inc.	72.3	61.7	20.5%	28.4%	$172.5B
EXELExelixis, Inc.	71.9	15.1	7.0%	33.7%	$11.7B
KRYSKrystal Biotech, Inc.	71.0	41.4	473.0%	30.7%	$8.0B
HALOHalozyme Therapeutics, Inc.	70.2	16.8	22.4%	43.7%	$9.3B
Sector Average	37.1	252.3	161.5%	-3292.7%	—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus

Buy8 analysts

Buy: 7Hold: 1

Price Target

$52consensus

Low $52Median $52High $52

+77.9% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company that develops therapies for the treatment of hypertension and associated cardiovascular diseases. It clinical-stage product candidate is lorundrostat, a proprietary, orally administered, highly selective aldosterone synthase inhibitor for the treatment of patients with uncontrolled or resistant hypertension. The company was incorporated in 2019 and is headquartered in Radnor, Pennsylvania.

CEO

Jon Congleton

Employees

Beta

0.51

Industry

Biotechnology

FMP-Identified Peers

ADPT AGIO APLS BEAM CDTX CPRX IDYA RXRX SRRK ZLAB

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)

44.9

Neutral

Trend

Bearish

10-day vs 50-day MA

From 52W High

-38.7%

High: $47.65

From 52W Low

+254.7%

Low: $8.24

Moving Averages

10-Day

$28.50

Above

20-Day

$29.70

Below

50-Day

$32.80

Below

200-Day

$28.20

Above

60-Day Support

$26.85

60-Day Resistance

$43.89

Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework

Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 72/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support

Price vs 200 SMA

+3.7%

200 SMA Slope (60d)

+28.36%

Rising

Volume Ratio

0.84x

10d avg vs 50d avg

Days in Stage

Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

Metric	Q3 2025	Q2 2025	Q1 2025	Q4 2024
Revenue	$0	$0	$0	$0
Gross Profit	$-15,000	$0	$0	$0
Operating Income	$-41M	$-47M	$-44M	$-52M
Net Income	$-37M	$-43M	$-42M	$-49M
EPS (Diluted)	$-0.52	$-0.66	$-0.79	$-0.98
Gross Margin	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Operating Margin	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Net Margin	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Why This Stock

Healthcare

Tradability FilterGrade A — 87/100Score impact: -26.3pt

Volume

100

1.3M avg/day

Dollar Vol

$38M/day

Float

46M shares

Mkt Cap

$1.8B

Range

100

478% spread

Composite Liquidity Score87/100

FDCBA

Free Float

69.6%

Outstanding Shares

66M

Bid-Ask Spread

478.0%

Institutional Tradable

Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.