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BCYC

๐Ÿฅ Healthcare

Bicycle Therapeutics plc

Conservative #1371Aggressive #1081Moderate Risk
$5.64-1.57%
Day High$5.69
Day Low$5.37
Volume0.2M
Mkt Cap$391M
52W Low $552W High $12
Market Cap
$372M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
30.8%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
6.4%
Profit Margin
-884.5%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.01

Why This Score

BCYC scores 9.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.01) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 15-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (11.8%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -24.4 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, BCYC would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score9.6
Fundamental Score29.6
ML Score38.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
26.6
6 Month
29.8
Primary
1 Year
31.3

Quality Assessment

F
Quality Grade
Low quality โ€” significant fundamental weaknesses
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $0.4B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary risk
Speculative Classification
Anomalous margin data โ€” extreme values suggest one-time events or accounting irregularities.
Conservative score reduced by 4 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
58
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
70
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
37
Grade Dlow dollar volume, small cap
Base
12.3
SHAP
-2.6
Factors
-0.1
Final
9.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

41AVG
Value50
Quality0
Growth75
Stability68
Investment11

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)60.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)34.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)82.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-8.0% to -3.1%
Medium-term
-11.0% to -3.7%
Long-term
-13.9% to -4.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 38

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score70.2/100
Target Upside+104.7%
Coverage21 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score58.1/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.5%
6M Momentum-0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-23.2%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.56)
Relative Strength vs Sector-76.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (4.4)
Momentum Quality-0.320
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P77
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P22
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P1
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 30 relative to sector peers30/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 38th percentileP38
Blended score: 80% fundamental (30) + 20% ML (38) = 31.331.3
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 39% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade F: quality flags triggered โ€” see details below. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade F
Risk Factors
Quality concern: Pipeline concentration: $0.4B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag
Speculative: ANOMALY_MARGIN (4.0pt penalty)Speculative
Liquidity penalty: -15.0pt (grade D)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare โ€” Rank #323 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
BCYC9.6N/A30.8%-884.5%$372M
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$19.6B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$17.9B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
ASND78.316.698.0%-31.7%$13.8B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$121.8B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.1B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.3B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$204.8B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$47.4B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$80.2B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$180.9B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$7.9B
Sector Average36.641.9161.5%-3292.7%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy21 analysts
Buy: 17Hold: 4
Price Target
$11consensus
Low $10Median $11High $12
+95.0% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Bicycle Therapeutics plc, a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, develops a class of medicines for diseases that are underserved by existing therapeutics. Its lead product candidate is BT1718, a bicycle toxin conjugate (BTC), which is in Phase I/IIa clinical trials targeting tumors that express Membrane Type 1 matrix metalloprotease. The company's oncology product candidates also comprise BT5528, a BTC that is in a Phase I/II clinical trial targeting EphA2; and BT8009, which is in Phase I/II clinical trial targeting Nectin-4. In addition, it is developing THR-149, a plasma kallikrein inhibitor that completed Phase II clinical trials for the treatment of diabetic macular edema; BT7480, a Bicycle tumor-targeted immune cell agonist (TICA) targeting Nectin-4 and agonizing; BT7455, an EphA2/CD137 Bicycle TICA, which is in preclinical studies; and BT1718, a BTC that target tumors, that is in Phase I/IIa clinical trial that express Membrane Type 1 matrix metalloproteinase. Further, the company collaborates with biopharmaceutical companies and organizations to develop programs in therapeutic areas, such as anti-infective, cardiovascular, ophthalmology, and respiratory indications. It has a clinical trial and license agreement with the Cancer Research Technology Limited and Cancer Research UK; research collaboration agreements with AstraZeneca, Sanofi, Oxurion, and the Dementia Discovery Fund; and discovery collaboration and license agreement with Genentech for the discovery and development of Bicycle peptides for multiple immuno-oncology targets. Bicycle Therapeutics plc was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Cambridge, the United Kingdom.

CEO
Kevin Lee
Employees
305
Beta
1.64
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
58.5
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-52.2%
High: $11.79
From 52W Low
+12.1%
Low: $5.03
Moving Averages
10-Day
$5.50
Above
20-Day
$5.70
Below
50-Day
$6.40
Below
200-Day
$7.30
Below
60-Day Support
$5.03
60-Day Resistance
$7.65
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 10/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-22.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-9.87%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.15x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
80
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$12M$3M$10M$4M
Gross Profit$12M$-68M$-47M$-52M
Operating Income$-66M$-87M$-70M$-68M
Net Income$-59M$-79M$-61M$-52M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.85$-1.14$-0.88$-0.74
Gross Margin100.0%-2332.5%-474.0%-1412.2%
Operating Margin-558.6%-2965.8%-703.7%-1824.8%
Net Margin-503.7%-2703.8%-608.9%-1398.4%

Why This Stock

HealthcareRevenue growth 30.8%

Tradability FilterGrade D โ€” 37/100Score impact: -51.5pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor โ€” it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
60
302K avg/day
Dollar Vol
8
$2M/day
Float
20
0K shares
Mkt Cap
18
$372M
Range
100
135% spread
Composite Liquidity Score37/100
FDCBA
low dollar volumesmall cap

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$20.67$62.08100.1%Wide
2022$12.08$60.80133.7%Wide
2023$12.54$31.9187.2%Wide
2024$12.17$28.6780.8%Wide
2025$6.03$15.4787.8%Wide
3-Year Range
136.4%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
135.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.