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OMER

πŸ₯ Healthcare

Omeros Corporation

Conservative #1179Aggressive #1206High RiskF↑ 34pt
$11.55+1.49%
Day High$11.58
Day Low$11.28
Volume0.5M
Mkt Cap$819M
52W Low $352W High $18
Market Cap
$810M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
0.0%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
-33.1%
Profit Margin
0.0%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

OMER scores 25.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 57.3% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E -0.87) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (39%) β€” steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (38.1%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-8.8 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score25.8
Fundamental Score38.6
ML Score3.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
4.1
6 Month
4.5
Primary
1 Year
4.8

Quality Assessment

C
Quality Grade
Average quality β€” moderate profitability or leverage
2 quality flags detected β€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
Negative ROIC (-100.9%) with high ROE (57.3%) β€” capital structure distortion (possibly negative equity or one-time gain)
Pipeline concentration: $0.9B biotech/pharma β€” likely single-product revenue with binary risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
2.1%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
81
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
63
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
84
Grade A
Base
31.5
SHAP
+0.2
Factors
-1.2
Conviction
-1.6
Divergence
-3.1
Final
25.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

27AVG
Value50
Quality40
Growth20
Stability14
Investment10

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)58.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)63.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)86.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-20.0% to -11.9%
Medium-term
-27.7% to -16.1%
Long-term
-34.9% to -19.9%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs β†’ ML Score: 3

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score63.2/100
Target Upside+250.9%
Coverage19 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score81.1/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 β€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.4%
6M Momentum+1.8%
Volatility+0.4%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-142.0%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.22)
Relative Strength vs Sector+14.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (1.0)
Momentum Quality+0.142
Momentum BreadthBroad βœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
2%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P41
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P22
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P18
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0Οƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 39 relative to sector peers39/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 3th percentileP3
Blended score: 80% fundamental (39) + 20% ML (3) = 31.531.5
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.4%; Drawdown 64% β†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade C
SHAP feature alignment: +0.2pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: -1.6pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Divergence penalty: -3.1pt (ML 36pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Quality concern: Negative ROIC (-100.9%) with high ROE (57.3%) β€” capital structure distortion (possibly negative equity or one-time gain); Pipeline concentration: $0.9B biotech/pharma β€” likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare β€” Rank #238 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
OMER25.8N/A0.0%0.0%$810M
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$19.6B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$17.9B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
ASND78.316.698.0%-31.7%$13.8B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$121.8B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.1B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.3B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$204.8B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$47.4B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$80.2B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$180.9B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$7.9B
Sector Average36.641.9161.5%-3292.7%β€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy19 analysts
Strong Buy: 1Buy: 10Hold: 6Sell: 2
Price Target
$40consensus
Low $40Median $40High $40
+246.3% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Omeros Corporation, a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, discovers, develops, and commercializes small-molecule and protein therapeutics, and orphan indications targeting inflammation, complement-mediated diseases, cancers related to dysfunction of the immune system, and addictive and compulsive disorders. The company's clinical programs include Narsoplimab (OMS721/MASP-2) that has completed pivotal studies for hematopoietic stem-cell transplant-associated thrombotic microangiopathy (HSCT-TMA); that is in Phase III clinical trial for immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) and atypical hemolytic uremic syndrome (aHUS); and Phase II clinical trial to treat COVID-19. Its clinical programs also consist of PPAR? (OMS405) that is in Phase II to treat opioid and nicotine addiction; PDE7 (OMS527), which is in Phase I trial for treating addiction and compulsive disorders, and movement disorders; and MASP-3 (OMS906) that is in Phase I trial for paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH) and other alternative pathway disorders. The company's preclinical programs comprise MASP-2-small-molecule inhibitors used for the treatment of aHUS, IgAN, HSCT-TMA, and age-related macular degeneration; longer-acting second generation antibody targeting MASP-2; and MASP-3-small-molecule inhibitors to treat PNH and other alternative pathway disorders. Its preclinical programs also include GPR174 Inhibitors and Chimeric Antigen Receptor (CAR) T-Cell and Adoptive T-Cell Therapies for various cancers; and G protein-coupled receptor targets for treating immunologic, immuno-oncologic, metabolic, CNS, cardiovascular, musculoskeletal, and other disorders. The company was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.

CEO
Gregory A. Demopulos
Employees
202
Beta
2.45
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
63.6
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-34.6%
High: $17.65
From 52W Low
+291.5%
Low: $2.95
Moving Averages
10-Day
$11.70
Below
20-Day
$11.60
Below
50-Day
$12.20
Below
200-Day
$6.90
Above
60-Day Support
$8.27
60-Day Resistance
$17.65
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 β€” AdvancingScore: 90/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+67.4%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+21.9%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.33x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
92
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$0$0$0$0
Gross Profit$0$-10M$0$-301,000
Operating Income$-26M$-32M$-35M$-36M
Net Income$-31M$-25M$-33M$-31M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.47$-0.43$-0.58$-0.54
Gross MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A
Operating MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A
Net MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A

Why This Stock

Healthcare

Tradability FilterGrade A β€” 84/100Score impact: -13.7pt

Volume
100
2.5M avg/day
Dollar Vol
85
$28M/day
Float
87
68M shares
Mkt Cap
36
$810M
Range
100
498% spread
Composite Liquidity Score84/100
FDCBA
Free Float
96.2%
Outstanding Shares
71M
Bid-Ask Spread
498.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.