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ICLR

🏥 Healthcare

ICON plc

Conservative #676Aggressive #434Moderate RiskHigh 100
$101.00-2.97%
Day High$104.92
Day Low$99.49
Volume1.1M
Mkt Cap$7.7B
52W Low $6752W High $211
Market Cap
$7.2B
P/E Ratio
12.5
Sector avg: 252.3
Rev Growth
2.0%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
29.3%
Profit Margin
9.6%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.38

Why This Score

ICLR scores 45.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 12.5x earnings, below the market average.
  • High conviction (100/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (16.0%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-4.0 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score45.9
Fundamental Score37.6
ML Score79.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
75.2
6 Month
84.1
Primary
1 Year
88.5

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
50
Basing
Sentiment (2.5%)
51
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
62
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
94
Grade A
Base
45.9
SHAP
+1.4
Factors
+0.8
Conviction
+1.7
Divergence
-4.0
Final
45.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

77AVG
Value85
Quality70
Growth75
Stability75
Investment80

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)62.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)24.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)78.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+3.0% to +7.8%
Medium-term
+5.1% to +12.4%
Long-term
+7.8% to +17.7%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 79

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score62.1/100
Target Upside+50.1%
Coverage29 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score51.1/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage1 — Basing
12M Momentum-0.5%
6M Momentum-0.5%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-3.3%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.93)
Relative Strength vs Sector-75.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.2)
Momentum Quality-0.257
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
18%
Moderate — watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P44
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P33
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P99
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 76 relative to sector peers76/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 81th percentileP81
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.0pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (75.9) + 9% ML (80.9) + SHAP(+3.0) = 79.3
Factor quality: +1.7pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 16.0%. Max drawdown 50% (-12.0 pts). Price momentum -51% (-9.2 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($7.2B market cap)+0.5 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.6pt (conviction=100)
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #102 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ICLR45.912.52.0%9.6%$7.2B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy29 analysts
Buy: 16Hold: 12Sell: 1
Price Target
$157consensus
Low $100Median $135High $222
+55.9% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

ICON Public Limited Company, a clinical research organization, provides outsourced development and commercialization services in Ireland, rest of Europe, the United States, and internationally. The company specializes in the strategic development, management, and analysis of programs that support various stages of the clinical development process from compound selection to Phase I-IV clinical studies. It offers clinical development services, including early development, patient recruitment and retention, strategy and analytics, late phase research, data and technology solution, and consulting and analytics services. The company's clinical development services also comprise medical imaging, clinical research and laboratory services, project management, site monitoring and management services, data management, biostatistics and programming, medical writing and publishing, medical affair, endpoint adjudication/data monitoring committees, pharmacovigilance, interactive response technologies, clinical supplies management, strategic regulatory, medical communication, and consulting and advisory services. It serves pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and medical device industries, as well as government and public health organizations. The company was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.

CEO
Barry Balfe
Employees
41,250
Beta
1.29
Industry
Medical - Diagnostics & Research
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
27.6
Oversold
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-52.1%
High: $211
From 52W Low
+51.7%
Low: $66.57
Moving Averages
10-Day
$99.90
Above
20-Day
$132.80
Below
50-Day
$164.00
Below
200-Day
$163.90
Below
60-Day Support
$66.57
60-Day Resistance
$203.91
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 1 — BasingScore: 27/100

Stock is building a base after a decline. The 200-day moving average is flattening. Watch for a breakout above the 200-day SMA on increased volume.

Monitor for breakout above 200-day SMA on volume
Price vs 200 SMA
-38.4%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-0.17%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
3.02x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
15
Confidence: 70%
Recent Gap Down

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$2.0B$2.0B$2.0B$2.0B
Gross Profit$456M$562M$559M$599M
Operating Income$259M$209M$220M$297M
Net Income$2M$183M$154M$260M
EPS (Diluted)$0.03$2.30$1.90$3.16
Gross Margin22.3%27.8%27.9%29.4%
Operating Margin12.7%10.4%11.0%14.6%
Net Margin0.1%9.1%7.7%12.7%

Why This Stock

HealthcareP/E ratio of 12.5Earnings quality grade AValuation below sector median (P/E 12.5)

Tradability FilterGrade A — 94/100Score impact: -21.6pt

Volume
100
1.8M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$184M/day
Float
90
76M shares
Mkt Cap
75
$7.2B
Range
100
217% spread
Composite Liquidity Score94/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
99.3%
Outstanding Shares
76M
Bid-Ask Spread
217.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.