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51

BCRX

๐Ÿฅ Healthcare

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Conservative #586Aggressive #657Moderate Risk
$7.90+4.64%
Day High$8.16
Day Low$7.59
Volume8.1M
Mkt Cap$1.7B
52W Low $652W High $11
Market Cap
$1.6B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
36.0%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
60.8%
Profit Margin
-1.5%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

BCRX scores 51.4 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E -1.76) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (81/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (11.9%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-1.5 points) applied. BCRX's rank of #586 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score51.4
Fundamental Score53.8
ML Score29.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
71.8
6 Month
80.3
Primary
1 Year
84.5

Quality Assessment

D
Quality Grade
Below average quality โ€” weak profitability or high leverage
2 quality flags detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (665.9%) โ€” earnings quality concern
Pipeline concentration: $1.6B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
62
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
72
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
90
Grade A
Base
48.9
SHAP
+1.4
Factors
+1.5
Conviction
+1.1
Divergence
-1.5
Final
51.4
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

61AVG
Value50
Quality27
Growth100
Stability59
Investment69

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)73.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)42.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)83.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+2.0% to +6.8%
Medium-term
+3.7% to +10.9%
Long-term
+5.5% to +15.2%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 29

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score71.5/100
Target Upside+90.5%
Coverage29 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score61.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.2%
6M Momentum-0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-2.8%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.87)
Relative Strength vs Sector-45.9%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (1.8)
Momentum Quality-0.132
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
3%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P79
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P22
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P72
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 54 relative to sector peers54/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 29th percentileP29
Blended score: 80% fundamental (54) + 20% ML (29) = 48.848.8
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 39% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade D
SHAP feature alignment: +1.4pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +1.1pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Divergence penalty: -1.5pt (ML 25pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (665.9%) โ€” earnings quality concern; Pipeline concentration: $1.6B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare โ€” Rank #81 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
BCRX51.4N/A36.0%-1.5%$1.6B
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$19.6B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$17.9B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
ASND78.316.698.0%-31.7%$13.8B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$121.8B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.1B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.3B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$204.8B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$47.4B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$80.2B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$180.9B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$7.9B
Sector Average36.641.9161.5%-3292.7%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biotechnology company, discovers novel, oral, and small-molecule medicines. The company markets peramivir injection, an intravenous neuraminidase inhibitor for the treatment of acute uncomplicated influenza under the RAPIVAB, RAPIACTA, and PERAMIFLU names; and ORLADEYO, an oral serine protease inhibitor to treat hereditary angioedema. It is also developing BCX9930, an oral factor D inhibitor, which is in Phase II clinical trial for complement-mediated diseases; BCX9250, an oral activin receptor-like kinase-2 inhibitor that is in Phase I clinical trial to treat fibrodysplasia ossificans progressiva; and Galidesivir, a RNA dependent-RNA polymerase inhibitor, which is in Phase I clinical trial to treat various RNA viruses, including Marburg, Yellow Fever, Ebola, and Zika. The company has collaborations and in-license relationships with the Torii Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.; Seqirus UK Limited; Shionogi & Co., Ltd.; Green Cross Corporation; Mundipharma International Holdings Limited; National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority; the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services; and The University of Alabama at Birmingham, as well as Albert Einstein College of Medicine of Yeshiva University and Industrial Research, Ltd. BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Durham, North Carolina.

CEO
Charles K. Gayer
Employees
580
Beta
0.79
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
88.4
Overbought
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-30.2%
High: $11.31
From 52W Low
+31.7%
Low: $6
Moving Averages
10-Day
$7.30
Above
20-Day
$6.90
Above
50-Day
$7.10
Above
200-Day
$8.10
Below
60-Day Support
$6.23
60-Day Resistance
$8.2
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 24/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-2.5%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-3.29%
Falling
Volume Ratio
0.87x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$407M$159M$163M$146M
Gross Profit$397M$157M$161M$141M
Operating Income$260M$30M$30M$21M
Net Income$246M$13M$5M$32,000
EPS (Diluted)$1.12$0.06$0.02$0.00
Gross Margin97.7%98.4%98.3%96.9%
Operating Margin64.0%18.6%18.2%14.6%
Net Margin60.5%8.1%3.1%0.0%

Why This Stock

HealthcareRevenue growth 36.0%

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 90/100Score impact: +0.5pt

Volume
100
4.2M avg/day
Dollar Vol
88
$32M/day
Float
100
183M shares
Mkt Cap
52
$1.6B
Range
100
89% spread
Composite Liquidity Score90/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$9.23$18.4866.8%Wide
2022$7.61$19.9989.7%Wide
2023$4.83$12.0885.8%Wide
2024$4.03$8.8875.1%Wide
2025$6.00$11.3161.4%Wide
3-Year Range
99.9%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
86.8%
Outstanding Shares
211M
Bid-Ask Spread
89.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.