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ADMA

🏥 Healthcare

ADMA Biologics, Inc.

Conservative #201Aggressive #28Moderate RiskHigh 97
$16.16+3.06%
Day High$16.60
Day Low$16.04
Volume0.2M
Mkt Cap$3.8B
52W Low $1452W High $26
Market Cap
$3.8B
P/E Ratio
18.3
Sector avg: 252.3
Rev Growth
65.2%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
800.0%
Profit Margin
42.9%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.19

Why This Score

ADMA scores 64.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 54.0% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High net margin of 42.9%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • ML model assigns a high-conviction signal (93/100), indicating strong pattern recognition across 82 features.
  • High conviction (97/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (13.5%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-3.2 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score64.8
Fundamental Score56.7
ML Score93.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
66.5
6 Month
74.4
Primary
1 Year
78.3

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $3.8B biotech/pharma — limited product diversification

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
49
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
78
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
93
Grade A
Base
64.0
SHAP
+1.2
Factors
+0.7
Conviction
+2.1
Divergence
-3.2
Final
64.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)90.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)48.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)57.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+1.6% to +6.2%
Medium-term
+3.0% to +10.0%
Long-term
+4.5% to +13.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 93

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score77.8/100
Target Upside-1.9%
Coverage9 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score48.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.0%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+5.0%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.27)
Relative Strength vs Sector-26.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.1)
Momentum Quality-0.011
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
2%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P88
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P28
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P64
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 72 relative to sector peers72/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 78th percentileP78
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.8pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (71.5) + 9% ML (78.0) + SHAP(+1.8) = 73.9
Factor quality: +1.1pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 13.5%. Max drawdown 38% (-12.0 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($3.8B market cap)+0.5 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.2pt (conviction=97)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -8 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (69.0%) — earnings quality concern; Pipeline concentration: $3.8B biotech/pharma — limited product diversification; R&D-adjusted ROIC: 21.6% (original: 32.4%). Biotechnology has ~40% R&D intensity. Capitalizing R&D over 5 years increases invested capital by ~100%.Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #23 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ADMA64.818.365.2%42.9%$3.8B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy9 analysts
Strong Buy: 1Buy: 8
Price Target
$16consensus
Low $14Median $16High $18
-1.0% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

ADMA Biologics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, engages in developing, manufacturing, and marketing specialty plasma-derived biologics for the treatment of immune deficiencies and infectious diseases in the United States and internationally. It offers BIVIGAM, an intravenous immune globulin (IVIG) product indicated for the treatment of primary humoral immunodeficiency (PI); ASCENIV, an IVIG product for the treatment of PI; and Nabi-HB for the treatment of acute exposure to blood containing Hepatitis B surface antigen and other listed exposures to Hepatitis B. The company also develops a pipeline of plasma-derived therapeutics, including products related to the methods of treatment and prevention of S. pneumonia infection for an immunoglobulin. In addition, it operates source plasma collection facilities. The company sells its products through independent distributors, sales agents, specialty pharmacies, and other alternate site providers. ADMA Biologics, Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Ramsey, New Jersey.

CEO
Adam S. Grossman
Employees
685
Beta
0.48
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
53.6
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-36.7%
High: $25.67
From 52W Low
+20.4%
Low: $13.5
Moving Averages
10-Day
$16.00
Above
20-Day
$16.30
Below
50-Day
$17.50
Below
200-Day
$17.40
Below
60-Day Support
$15.35
60-Day Resistance
$20.46
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 22/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Transition signal: 3→4
Price vs 200 SMA
-6.6%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-2.48%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.16x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
29
Confidence: 50%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$139M$134M$122M$115M
Gross Profit$89M$76M$67M$61M
Operating Income$63M$51M$43M$35M
Net Income$49M$36M$34M$27M
EPS (Diluted)$0.20$0.15$0.14$0.11
Gross Margin63.8%56.3%55.1%53.2%
Operating Margin45.1%38.0%35.1%30.4%
Net Margin35.5%27.1%28.1%23.4%

Why This Stock

HealthcareP/E ratio of 18.3Revenue growth 65.2%Profit margin 42.9%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 93/100Score impact: -8.7pt

Volume
100
2.4M avg/day
Dollar Vol
92
$39M/day
Float
100
233M shares
Mkt Cap
65
$3.8B
Range
100
90% spread
Composite Liquidity Score93/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$1.01$2.6389%Wide
2022$1.26$3.92102.7%Wide
2023$2.95$4.6544.7%Wide
2024$4.37$23.64137.6%Wide
2025$13.50$25.6762.1%Wide
3-Year Range
158.8%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
98.0%
Outstanding Shares
238M
Bid-Ask Spread
90.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.