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29

CRNX

🏥 Healthcare

Crinetics Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Conservative #1128Aggressive #1321Low RiskLow 28F↑ 29pt
$43.39-2.54%
Day High$45.20
Day Low$43.34
Volume0.8M
Mkt Cap$4.4B
52W Low $2452W High $58
Market Cap
$4.5B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
-74.1%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
-39.1%
Profit Margin
-27563.3%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.05

Why This Score

CRNX scores 29.3 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.05) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (19%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (11.8%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -14.3 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, CRNX would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score29.3
Fundamental Score46.6
ML Score6.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
7.5
6 Month
8.4
Primary
1 Year
8.8

Quality Assessment

D
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $4.5B biotech/pharma — limited product diversification
Speculative Classification
Anomalous margin data — extreme values suggest one-time events or accounting irregularities.
Conservative score reduced by 4 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
79
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
94
Grade A
Base
34.5
SHAP
+1.9
Factors
-1.1
Conviction
-2.1
Divergence
-3.8
Final
29.3
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)33.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)81.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)88.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-31.8% to -19.8%
Medium-term
-43.3% to -27.3%
Long-term
-56.1% to -32.1%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 6

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+117.0%
Coverage18 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score78.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.2%
6M Momentum+0.4%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-18.5%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.51)
Relative Strength vs Sector-5.1%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (1.6)
Momentum Quality+0.165
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
10%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P5
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P40
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P27
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 53 relative to sector peers53/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 24th percentileP24
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.9pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (52.6) + 9% ML (23.2) + SHAP(+1.9) = 51.8—
Factor quality: -1.1pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 11.8%. Max drawdown 15% (-2.7 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($4.5B market cap)+0.5 pts
Conviction penalty: -2.1pt (conviction=28)—
Divergence penalty: -2.8pt (fund 29pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by -28 pointsGrade D
Quality concern: Non-operating gain: net margin (-27563.3%) exceeds operating margin (-31130.2%) by 3567pp — likely one-time item; Pipeline concentration: $4.5B biotech/pharma — limited product diversificationFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #225 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
CRNX29.3N/A-74.1%-27563.3%$4.5B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy18 analysts
Buy: 18
Price Target
$95consensus
Low $67Median $87High $143
+118.3% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Crinetics Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a clinical stage pharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of therapeutics for rare endocrine diseases and endocrine-related tumors. Its lead product candidate is Paltusotine, an oral selective nonpeptide somatostatin receptor type 2 agonist that has completed phase III clinical trial for the treatment of acromegaly, as well as completed phase II clinical trial to treat carcinoid syndrome and nonfunctional neuroendocrine tumors (NETs). The company is also developing CRN04777, an oral selective nonpeptide somatostatin type 5 receptor agonist, which is in phase I clinical trial for the treatment of congenital hyperinsulinism; and CRN04894, an oral adrenocorticotrophic hormone antagonist that is in phase I clinical trial for the treatment of Cushing's and congenital adrenal hyperplasia diseases. Crinetics Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

CEO
R. Scott Struthers
Employees
437
Beta
0.19
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
36.4
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-25.2%
High: $57.99
From 52W Low
+80%
Low: $24.1
Moving Averages
10-Day
$44.10
Below
20-Day
$46.20
Below
50-Day
$49.10
Below
200-Day
$39.00
Above
60-Day Support
$41.97
60-Day Resistance
$57.99
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 78/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+11.3%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+13.85%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.69x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$143,000$1M$361,000$0
Gross Profit$143,000$1M$361,000$0
Operating Income$-143M$-129M$-111M$-95M
Net Income$-130M$-116M$-97M$-81M
EPS (Diluted)$-1.38$-1.23$-1.04$-0.88
Gross Margin100.0%100.0%100.0%N/A
Operating Margin-99710.5%-12523.0%-30860.1%N/A
Net Margin-90972.7%-11216.0%-26807.2%N/A

Why This Stock

Healthcare

Tradability FilterGrade A — 94/100Score impact: -14.0pt

Volume
100
1.2M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$54M/day
Float
95
87M shares
Mkt Cap
66
$4.5B
Range
100
141% spread
Composite Liquidity Score94/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.3x dampening
severe revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
85.0%
Outstanding Shares
103M
Bid-Ask Spread
141.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.