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ACAD

🏥 Healthcare

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc.

Conservative #108Aggressive #101Moderate RiskHigh 100
$24.97+1.55%
Day High$25.10
Day Low$24.30
Volume1.8M
Mkt Cap$4.2B
52W Low $1352W High $28
Market Cap
$4.1B
P/E Ratio
15.5
Sector avg: 252.3
Rev Growth
31.8%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
469.5%
Profit Margin
24.9%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.06

Why This Score

ACAD scores 69.3 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 32.3% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High net margin of 24.9%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.06) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (12%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
  • High conviction (100/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Above-average volatility (17.1%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (0.0 points) applied. ACAD's rank of #108 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score69.3
Fundamental Score64.1
ML Score70.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
62.4
6 Month
69.8
Primary
1 Year
73.5

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $4.1B biotech/pharma — limited product diversification

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4.7%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
66
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
66
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
92
Grade A
Base
65.3
SHAP
+1.1
Factors
+0.6
Conviction
+2.3
Final
69.3
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)87.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)49.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)83.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.3% to +1.3%
Medium-term
-7.9% to +1.9%
Long-term
-10.5% to +2.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 70

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score65.5/100
Target Upside+44.0%
Coverage37 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score66.1/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum-0.2%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+27.6%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.81)
Relative Strength vs Sector-12.0%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.7)
Momentum Quality+0.102
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
5%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P78
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P31
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P80
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 76 relative to sector peers76/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 73th percentileP73
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.8pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (75.8) + 9% ML (72.7) + SHAP(+1.8) = 77.3
Factor quality: +1.0pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 17.0%. Max drawdown 18% (-4.0 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($4.1B market cap)+0.5 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.6pt (conviction=100)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -8 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (23.8%) — earnings quality concern; Pipeline concentration: $4.1B biotech/pharma — limited product diversification; R&D-adjusted ROIC: 15.5% (original: 23.3%). Biotechnology has ~40% R&D intensity. Capitalizing R&D over 5 years increases invested capital by ~100%.Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #17 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ACAD69.315.531.8%24.9%$4.1B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy37 analysts
Buy: 25Hold: 11Sell: 1
Price Target
$35consensus
Low $29Median $35High $40
+39.3% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of small molecule drugs that address unmet medical needs in central nervous system disorders. The company offers NUPLAZID (pimavanserin) for the treatment of hallucinations and delusions associated with Parkinson's disease psychosis. It's pipeline include, pimavanserin, under phase 3 development for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease psychosis, and negative symptoms of schizophrenia; Trofinetide, a novel synthetic analog, under phase 3 development for the treatment of Rett syndrome; ACP-044, a novel first-in-class orally administered non-opioid analgesic, under phase 2 development for treating acute and chronic pain; and ACP-319, a positive allosteric modulator of the muscarinic receptor, under phase 1 development for treating schizophrenia and cognition in Alzheimer's. ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

CEO
Catherine E. Owen Adams
Employees
653
Beta
0.66
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
55.2
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-11.9%
High: $28.35
From 52W Low
+86.3%
Low: $13.4
Moving Averages
10-Day
$23.50
Above
20-Day
$24.00
Above
50-Day
$25.70
Below
200-Day
$23.60
Above
60-Day Support
$21.51
60-Day Resistance
$28.35
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 74/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+5.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+13.11%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.18x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
5
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$284M$279M$265M$244M
Gross Profit$-224M$257M$244M$224M
Operating Income$17M$36M$32M$19M
Net Income$274M$72M$27M$19M
EPS (Diluted)$1.60$0.42$0.16$0.11
Gross Margin-78.8%92.2%92.2%91.7%
Operating Margin6.1%12.8%12.2%7.9%
Net Margin96.3%25.8%10.1%7.8%

Why This Stock

HealthcareP/E ratio of 15.5Revenue growth 31.8%Profit margin 24.9%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 92/100Score impact: +8.9pt

Volume
100
1.4M avg/day
Dollar Vol
89
$34M/day
Float
100
166M shares
Mkt Cap
65
$4.1B
Range
100
112% spread
Composite Liquidity Score92/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$15.68$50.40105.1%Wide
2022$12.24$28.0678.5%Wide
2023$15.77$33.9973.2%Wide
2024$14.15$31.8276.9%Wide
2025$13.40$28.3571.6%Wide
3-Year Range
86.9%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.15x dampening
weinstein declining

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
98.4%
Outstanding Shares
169M
Bid-Ask Spread
112.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.