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68

WABC

🏦 Financial Services

Westamerica Bancorporation

Conservative #124Aggressive #923Low RiskHigh 96
$52.54+2.08%
Day High$52.66
Day Low$51.51
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$1.3B
52W Low $4252W High $53
Market Cap
$1.3B
P/E Ratio
11.4
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
-12.6%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
-16.2%
Profit Margin
42.7%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.15

Why This Score

WABC scores 68.4 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 42.7%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 11.4x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (3.1% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • High conviction (96/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Moderate penalties (-7.6 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score68.4
Fundamental Score78.6
ML Score46.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
74.8
6 Month
83.6
Primary
1 Year
88.0

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality
Quality Flags
False stability: 0.031 vol with only -12.6% revenue growth — stagnation, not safety (declining revenue overrides sector exemption)

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
20
Topping
Sentiment (2.5%)
41
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
41
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
44
Grade Clow volume
Base
67.0
SHAP
+2.0
Factors
+0.6
Conviction
+1.4
Divergence
-2.6
Final
68.4
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)60.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)79.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)70.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-1.7% to +4.6%
Medium-term
-2.3% to +7.3%
Long-term
-2.8% to +10.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 46

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score40.6/100
Target Upside+10.9%
Coverage8 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score40.9/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage3 — Topping
12M Momentum+0.0%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.0%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-2.5%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.66)
Relative Strength vs Sector-3.9%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (1.6)
Momentum Quality+0.047
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
40%
High risk — cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P9
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P61
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P72
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
-0.3σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
YES
Below-sector growth + cheap PE
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 83 relative to sector peers83/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 90th percentileP90
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +4.4pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (82.7) + 9% ML (89.6) + SHAP(+4.4) = 87.8
Factor quality: +1.2pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 3.1%. Stability bonus of +12.0 pointsLow
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.3B market cap)-8.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.1pt (conviction=96)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -23 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: False stability: 0.0 vol with only -12.6% revenue growth — stagnation, not safety (declining revenue overrides sector exemption); CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure — forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #33 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
WABC68.411.4-12.6%42.7%$1.3B
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold8 analysts
Hold: 5Sell: 3
Price Target
$57consensus
Low $57Median $57High $57
+8.5% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Westamerica Bancorporation operates as a bank holding company for the Westamerica Bank that provides various banking products and services to individual and commercial customers. The company accepts various deposit products, including retail savings and checking accounts, as well as certificates of deposit. Its loan portfolio includes commercial, commercial and residential real estate, real estate construction, and consumer installment loans, as well as indirect automobile loans. It operates through 78 branch offices in 21 counties in Northern and Central California. The company was formerly known as Independent Bankshares Corporation and changed its name to Westamerica Bancorporation in 1983. The company was incorporated in 1972 and is headquartered in San Rafael, California.

CEO
David L. Payne
Employees
616
Beta
0.60
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
57.7
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-1.6%
High: $53.37
From 52W Low
+25.1%
Low: $42
Moving Averages
10-Day
$52.20
Above
20-Day
$51.80
Above
50-Day
$50.30
Above
200-Day
$49.00
Above
60-Day Support
$46.54
60-Day Resistance
$53.37
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 3 — ToppingScore: 26/100

Stock is losing momentum near highs. The 200-day SMA is flattening or beginning to turn. Historically, this stage precedes distribution.

Exercise caution; tighten risk management
Price vs 200 SMA
+7.2%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+0.54%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
1.05x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
29
Confidence: 70%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$67M$67M$68M$70M
Gross Profit$63M$64M$65M$67M
Operating Income$38M$38M$39M$42M
Net Income$28M$28M$29M$31M
EPS (Diluted)$1.12$1.12$1.12$1.17
Gross Margin94.8%94.6%95.3%95.9%
Operating Margin56.7%56.2%57.6%59.9%
Net Margin41.6%41.9%42.9%44.5%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 11.4Profit margin 42.7%Earnings quality grade AValuation below sector median (P/E 11.4)

Tradability FilterGrade C — 44/100Score impact: +3.7pt

Volume
32
146K avg/day
Dollar Vol
55
$7M/day
Float
53
23M shares
Mkt Cap
46
$1.3B
Range
28
27% spread
Composite Liquidity Score44/100
FDCBA
low volume

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 36/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$53.24$66.8522.7%Narrow
2022$52.04$63.8620.4%Narrow
2023$35.52$59.6350.7%Wide
2024$43.82$59.9731.1%Moderate
2025$42.00$53.8624.7%Narrow
3-Year Range
51.2%
Narrow Years
3 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.35x dampening
revenue declinestagnation flag

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
93.7%
Outstanding Shares
25M
Bid-Ask Spread
27.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.