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85

CME

🏦 Financial Services

CME Group Inc.

Conservative #3Aggressive #119Low RiskMixed 47ML↑ 27pt
$307.36-3.66%
Day High$322.57
Day Low$306.37
Volume3.8M
Mkt Cap$110.5B
52W Low $24752W High $323
Market Cap
$109.0B
P/E Ratio
27.2
Sector avg: 50.1
Rev Growth
9.9%
Sector avg: 13.3%
Earnings Growth
9.3%
Profit Margin
57.5%
Sector avg: -2.1%
Debt/Equity
0.13

Why This Score

CME scores 84.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 57.5%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Low volatility (3.9% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (22%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
  • Large-cap ($109B) with deep liquidity and institutional ownership.

No material penalties applied. CME ranks #3 based on its factor profile and ML signal alignment.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score84.9
Fundamental Score79.1
ML Score88.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
73.2
6 Month
81.9
Primary
1 Year
86.2

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
49
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
56
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
93
Grade A
Base
83.4
SHAP
+3.0
Factors
+1.0
Divergence
-2.5
Final
84.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

71AVG
Value55
Quality95
Growth60
Stability90
Investment55

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)69.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)83.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)60.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+4.0% to +9.0%
Medium-term
+6.9% to +14.5%
Long-term
+10.0% to +20.3%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 88

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score56.4/100
Target Upside-0.2%
Coverage35 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score49.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.2%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.0%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+6.9%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.68)
Relative Strength vs Sector+12.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.201
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
2%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P66
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P19
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P38
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 61 relative to sector peers61/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 87th percentileP87
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +4.4pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (60.6) + 9% ML (87.3) + SHAP(+4.4) = 67.4—
Factor quality: +1.4pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 3.9%. Stability bonus of +12.0 pointsLow
Market cap adjustment: +3.5 points ($109.0B market cap)+3.5 pts
Divergence penalty: -2.5pt (ML 27pt higher)—
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #1 of 365 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
CNOB72.017.513.4%11.9%$1.4B
Sector Average45.550.113.3%-2.1%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold35 analysts
Buy: 14Hold: 16Sell: 5
Price Target
$312consensus
Low $300Median $309High $340
+1.5% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

CME Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates contract markets for the trading of futures and options on futures contracts worldwide. It offers futures and options products based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, agricultural commodities, energy, and metals, as well as fixed income products. The company also provides clearing house services, including clearing, settling, and guaranteeing futures and options contracts, and cleared swaps products traded through its exchanges; and trade processing and risk mitigation services. In addition, the company offers a range of market data services, including real-time and historical data services. It serves professional traders, financial institutions, institutional and individual investors, corporations, manufacturers, producers, governments, and central banks. The company was formerly known as Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings Inc. and changed its name to CME Group Inc. in July 2007. CME Group Inc. was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

CEO
Terrence A. Duffy
Employees
3,760
Beta
0.28
Industry
Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
63.1
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-4.7%
High: $322.57
From 52W Low
+24.4%
Low: $247.08
Moving Averages
10-Day
$306.50
Above
20-Day
$301.10
Above
50-Day
$284.80
Above
200-Day
$275.70
Above
60-Day Support
$262.19
60-Day Resistance
$322.57
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 51/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+11.5%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+2.43%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.19x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
29
Confidence: 90%
Key Reversal Detected (2026-02-25)

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$1.6B$1.5B$1.7B$1.6B
Gross Profit$1.4B$1.3B$1.5B$1.4B
Operating Income$1.0B$973M$1.1B$1.1B
Net Income$1.2B$908M$1.0B$956M
EPS (Diluted)$3.24$2.49$2.81$2.62
Gross Margin85.4%84.5%86.9%87.4%
Operating Margin61.8%63.3%66.7%67.5%
Net Margin70.8%59.1%59.8%58.2%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesProfit margin 57.5%Earnings quality grade A

Tradability FilterGrade A — 93/100Score impact: +10.4pt

Volume
100
2.0M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$627M/day
Float
100
359M shares
Mkt Cap
100
$109.0B
Range
29
27% spread
Composite Liquidity Score93/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 42/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$185.79$232.6422.4%Narrow
2022$166.58$256.9442.7%Wide
2023$166.55$223.8029.3%Moderate
2024$190.70$249.0226.5%Moderate
2025$224.62$290.7925.7%Moderate
3-Year Range
54.3%
Narrow Years
4 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
99.8%
Outstanding Shares
360M
Bid-Ask Spread
27.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.