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74

BCAL

🏦 Financial Services

Southern California Bancorp

Conservative #45Aggressive #50Low RiskLow 24ML↑ 23pt
$18.88+1.72%
Day High$18.98
Day Low$18.64
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$610M
52W Low $1252W High $20
Market Cap
$613M
P/E Ratio
9.9
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
26.2%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
1060.6%
Profit Margin
27.1%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.12

Why This Score

BCAL scores 74.3 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 27.1%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 9.9x earnings, below the market average.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (19%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.

Moderate penalties (-5.1 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score74.3
Fundamental Score72.3
ML Score87.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
74.6
6 Month
83.3
Primary
1 Year
87.7

Quality Assessment

F
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
58
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
67
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
52
Grade Clow dollar volume
Base
70.4
SHAP
+3.2
Factors
+0.8
Divergence
-0.1
Final
74.3
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)84.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)81.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)81.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+4.9% to +10.0%
Medium-term
+8.3% to +16.1%
Long-term
+12.3% to +23.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 87

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score66.7/100
Target Upside+13.5%
Coverage3 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score57.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.2%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+6.0%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.68)
Relative Strength vs Sector+9.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.8)
Momentum Quality+0.174
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
6%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P84
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P74
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P47
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.3σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 66 relative to sector peers66/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 89th percentileP89
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +4.3pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (66.4) + 9% ML (89.3) + SHAP(+4.3) = 72.8—
Factor quality: +1.1pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 6.6%. Stability bonus of +8.7 pointsLow
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.6B market cap)-15.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -2.5pt (conviction=24)—
Divergence penalty: -1.9pt (ML 23pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade F: assessed. Score adjusted by -30 pointsGrade F
Quality concern: Earnings growth (1061%) massively exceeds revenue growth (26.2%) — earnings spike likely non-recurring; Earnings/revenue growth ratio of 40x — earnings quality suspect; High accrual ratio (42.3%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #9 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
CNOB72.017.513.4%11.9%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy3 analysts
Buy: 2Hold: 1
Price Target
$21consensus
Low $21Median $21High $21
+11.2% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Southern California Bancorp operates as the holding company for Bank of Southern California, N.A. that provides various financial products to individuals, professionals, and small-to medium-sized businesses. The company offers checking, personal and business savings, and money market accounts, as well as certificates of deposit. It also provides home equity lines of credit, business loans and lines of credit, commercial real estate and construction loans, small business administration loans, letters of credit, and personal and business credit cards. In addition, the company provides cash vault, sweep accounts, and remote deposit capture services; online and mobile banking services; courier service; lockbox services; and merchant services. It operates branches in San Diego, Orange, Ventura, Los Angeles, and Riverside counties, as well as the Inland Empire. The company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

CEO
David I. Rainer
Employees
290
Beta
0.29
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
46.6
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-7.8%
High: $20.47
From 52W Low
+59.1%
Low: $11.87
Moving Averages
10-Day
$18.80
Above
20-Day
$18.70
Above
50-Day
$18.80
Above
200-Day
$17.20
Above
60-Day Support
$17.71
60-Day Resistance
$20.47
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 74/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+9.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+8.44%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.63x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$55M$60M$59M$59M
Gross Profit$46M$45M$45M$49M
Operating Income$22M$22M$20M$24M
Net Income$16M$16M$14M$17M
EPS (Diluted)$0.50$0.48$0.43$0.52
Gross Margin83.9%75.5%76.6%81.8%
Operating Margin40.6%36.4%34.2%39.9%
Net Margin29.8%26.2%24.0%28.4%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 9.9Revenue growth 26.2%Profit margin 27.1%Valuation below sector median (P/E 9.9)

Tradability FilterGrade C — 52/100Score impact: -4.1pt

Volume
54
238K avg/day
Dollar Vol
43
$4M/day
Float
53
23M shares
Mkt Cap
32
$613M
Range
96
72% spread
Composite Liquidity Score52/100
FDCBA
low dollar volume

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 26/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$12.85$16.0021.8%Narrow
2022$12.75$16.8327.6%Moderate
2023$12.16$18.0038.7%Wide
2024$12.30$18.4940.2%Wide
2025$11.87$20.4753.2%Wide
3-Year Range
53.2%
Narrow Years
2 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
71.0%
Outstanding Shares
32M
Bid-Ask Spread
72.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.