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71

VLY

🏦 Financial Services

Valley National Bancorp

Conservative #61Aggressive #271Low RiskMixed 46ML↑ 20pt
$13.17+2.33%
Day High$13.21
Day Low$12.95
Volume5.0M
Mkt Cap$7.3B
52W Low $752W High $14
Market Cap
$7.5B
P/E Ratio
12.5
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
-2.2%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
57.3%
Profit Margin
17.1%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.49

Why This Score

VLY scores 72.4 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 12.5x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (5.3% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.

No material penalties applied. VLY ranks #61 based on its factor profile and ML signal alignment.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score72.4
Fundamental Score69.8
ML Score63.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
65.5
6 Month
73.2
Primary
1 Year
77.0

Quality Assessment

D
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns
Quality Flags
False stability: 0.053 vol with only -2.2% revenue growth — stagnation, not safety (declining revenue overrides sector exemption)

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
67
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
66
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
96
Grade A
Base
69.8
SHAP
+3.5
Factors
+0.5
Divergence
-1.4
Final
72.4
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)64.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)92.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)83.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-2.8% to +3.2%
Medium-term
-4.0% to +5.2%
Long-term
-5.1% to +7.2%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 63

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score65.5/100
Target Upside+16.3%
Coverage21 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score67.3/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.4%
6M Momentum+0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+11.9%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.73)
Relative Strength vs Sector+34.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.425
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
15%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P15
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P55
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P32
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
YES
Below-sector growth + cheap PE

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 57 relative to sector peers57/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 76th percentileP76
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +4.3pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (56.7) + 9% ML (76.3) + SHAP(+4.3) = 62.8—
Factor quality: +0.6pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 5.3%. Stability bonus of +11.3 pointsLow
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($7.5B market cap)+0.5 pts
Divergence penalty: -1.4pt (ML 20pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by -30 pointsGrade D
Quality concern: Earnings/revenue growth ratio of Infinityx — earnings quality suspect; High accrual ratio (75.4%) — earnings quality concern; False stability: 0.1 vol with only -2.2% revenue growth — stagnation, not safety (declining revenue overrides sector exemption)Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #14 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
CNOB72.017.513.4%11.9%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy21 analysts
Buy: 14Hold: 6Sell: 1
Price Target
$15consensus
Low $14Median $15High $16
+13.9% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Valley National Bancorp operates as the holding company for Valley National Bank that provides various commercial, retail, insurance, and wealth management financial services products. It operates through Commercial Lending, Consumer Lending, and Investment Management segments. The company offers non-interest bearing, savings, NOW, money market, and time deposit accounts, commercial and industrial, commercial real estate, residential mortgage, and automobile loans; loans secured by the cash surrender value of life insurance; home equity loans and lines of credit; and secured and unsecured other consumer loans. It also invests in various securities and interest-bearing deposits with other banks; and provides international banking services, such as standby and documentary letters of credit, and related products, as well as foreign exchange transactions, documentary collections, foreign wire transfers services, and transaction accounts for non-resident aliens. In addition, the company offers investment services for individuals and small to medium sized businesses; and trusts and custom -tailored investment strategies for various retirement plans. Further, it provides trust services, such as living and testamentary trusts, investment management, custodial and escrow services, and estate administration to individuals; tax credit advisory services; property and casualty, life, health, and title insurance agency services; and health care equipment lending and other commercial equipment leasing services, as well as owns real estate related investments. Additionally, the company offers online, mobile, and telephone banking services; and overdraft, drive-in and night deposit, automated teller machine, remote deposit capture, and safe deposit facility services. As of December 31,2021, it operated 232 branch offices in New Jersey, New York, Florida, and Alabama. The company was incorporated in 1927 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

CEO
Ira D. Robbins
Employees
3,732
Beta
1.09
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
45.1
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-5%
High: $13.87
From 52W Low
+76.1%
Low: $7.48
Moving Averages
10-Day
$13.20
Below
20-Day
$13.20
Below
50-Day
$12.40
Above
200-Day
$10.60
Above
60-Day Support
$11.21
60-Day Resistance
$13.87
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 71/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+24.2%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+10.63%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.01x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%
Key Reversal Detected (2026-02-11)

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$892M$892M$868M$843M
Gross Profit$521M$492M$457M$416M
Operating Income$222M$210M$173M$139M
Net Income$195M$163M$133M$106M
EPS (Diluted)$0.33$0.28$0.22$0.18
Gross Margin58.4%55.2%52.7%49.3%
Operating Margin24.9%23.5%20.0%16.5%
Net Margin21.9%18.3%15.3%12.6%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 12.5Profit margin 17.1%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 96/100Score impact: +3.9pt

Volume
100
7.6M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$98M/day
Float
100
477M shares
Mkt Cap
73
$7.5B
Range
100
85% spread
Composite Liquidity Score96/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 6/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$11.66$14.8524.1%Narrow
2022$10.01$15.1040.5%Wide
2023$6.39$12.6165.5%Wide
2024$6.47$11.1052.7%Wide
2025$7.48$12.1847.8%Wide
3-Year Range
65.5%
Narrow Years
1 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.49x dampening
slight revenue declinestagnation flag

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
85.5%
Outstanding Shares
558M
Bid-Ask Spread
85.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.