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72

CNOB

🏦 Financial Services

ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc.

Conservative #66Aggressive #205Low RiskModerate 76
$27.62+2.91%
Day High$27.65
Day Low$27.04
Volume0.2M
Mkt Cap$1.4B
52W Low $2152W High $29
Market Cap
$1.4B
P/E Ratio
17.5
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
13.4%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
9.0%
Profit Margin
11.9%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.02

Why This Score

CNOB scores 72.0 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Low volatility (4.8% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.02) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (13%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
  • High conviction (76/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.

Minor adjustments (-2.0 points) applied. CNOB's rank of #66 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score72.0
Fundamental Score69.0
ML Score74.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
60.5
6 Month
67.7
Primary
1 Year
71.2

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
56
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
77
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
62
Grade B
Base
68.0
SHAP
+3.5
Factors
+0.5
Final
72.0
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)60.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)80.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)83.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-1.9% to +2.1%
Medium-term
-2.4% to +3.7%
Long-term
-2.8% to +5.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 74

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score77.3/100
Target Upside+3.6%
Coverage11 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score55.7/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.0%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+1.9%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.85)
Relative Strength vs Sector+3.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.6)
Momentum Quality+0.117
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
3%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P74
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P32
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P39
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 58 relative to sector peers58/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 70th percentileP70
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +4.3pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (58.4) + 9% ML (70.4) + SHAP(+4.3) = 63.8
Factor quality: +0.6pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 4.8%. Stability bonus of +12.0 pointsLow
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.4B market cap)-8.0 pts
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -8 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (27.0%) — earnings quality concern; CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure — forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #16 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
CNOB72.017.513.4%11.9%$1.4B
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy11 analysts
Strong Buy: 1Buy: 10
Price Target
$28consensus
Low $25Median $26High $32
+0.2% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for ConnectOne Bank that provides commercial banking products and services for small and mid-sized businesses, local professionals, and individuals in the Northern New Jersey and New York Metropolitan area, and South Florida market. The company offers personal and business checking, retirement, money market, and time and savings accounts. It also provides consumer and commercial business loans on a secured and unsecured basis; revolving lines of credit; commercial mortgage loans; residential mortgages on primary and secondary residences; home equity loans; bridge loans; other personal purpose loans; and commercial construction and real estate loans. In addition, the company offers check cards, ATM cards, credit cards, wire transfers, access to automated teller services, Internet banking, treasury direct, automated clearing house origination, mobile banking by phone, safe deposit boxes, and remote deposit capture services. It operates through a network of eight banking offices in Bergen County, five banking offices in Union County, one banking office in Morris County, one office in Essex County, one office in Hudson County, one office in Monmouth County, one banking office in Manhattan in New York City, one office in Nassau County on Long Island, one in Astoria, and five branches in the Hudson Valley, as well as one financial center in West Palm Beach in Palm Beach County. The company was formerly known as Center Bancorp, Inc. and changed its name to ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. in July 2014. ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. was incorporated in 1982 and is headquartered in Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey.

CEO
Frank S. Sorrentino
Employees
489
Beta
1.13
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
48.2
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-5.7%
High: $29.28
From 52W Low
+34%
Low: $20.61
Moving Averages
10-Day
$27.50
Above
20-Day
$27.60
Above
50-Day
$27.30
Above
200-Day
$25.10
Above
60-Day Support
$24.95
60-Day Resistance
$29.28
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 68/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+10%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+4.43%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.97x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
64
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$189M$207M$151M$129M
Gross Profit$107M$116M$48M$67M
Operating Income$53M$57M$-25M$27M
Net Income$40M$41M$-20M$20M
EPS (Diluted)$0.75$0.91$-0.52$0.49
Gross Margin56.5%56.0%32.0%51.6%
Operating Margin28.3%27.6%-16.7%21.2%
Net Margin20.9%19.8%-13.4%15.7%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 17.5Revenue growth 13.4%Profit margin 11.9%Valuation below sector median (P/E 17.5)

Tradability FilterGrade B — 62/100Score impact: -2.8pt

Volume
59
287K avg/day
Dollar Vol
55
$8M/day
Float
77
47M shares
Mkt Cap
47
$1.4B
Range
81
42% spread
Composite Liquidity Score62/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 1/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$22.84$35.5043.4%Wide
2022$22.55$37.0048.5%Wide
2023$13.11$26.1266.3%Wide
2024$17.07$29.3152.8%Wide
2025$20.61$28.4732%Moderate
3-Year Range
76.4%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
94.2%
Outstanding Shares
50M
Bid-Ask Spread
42.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.