Back to Dashboard
61

FSUN

🏦 Financial Services

FirstSun Capital Bancorp

Conservative #269Aggressive #631Low RiskHigh 100
$38.42+3.42%
Day High$38.63
Day Low$37.24
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$1.1B
52W Low $3052W High $42
Market Cap
$1.1B
P/E Ratio
11.2
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
5.5%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
29.5%
Profit Margin
17.2%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.03

Why This Score

FSUN scores 61.2 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 11.2x earnings, below the market average.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.03) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (100/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Moderate penalties (-6.2 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score61.2
Fundamental Score67.9
ML Score45.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
77.5
6 Month
86.6
Primary
1 Year
91.1

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
20
Topping
Sentiment (2.5%)
53
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
42
Grade Clow volume, low float
Base
58.4
SHAP
+1.9
Factors
+0.6
Conviction
+1.6
Divergence
-1.2
Final
61.2
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)69.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)62.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)82.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+2.0% to +6.6%
Medium-term
+3.6% to +10.7%
Long-term
+5.3% to +14.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 45

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+13.5%
Coverage1 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score53.3/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage3 — Topping
12M Momentum-0.0%
6M Momentum+0.0%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-4.6%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.48)
Relative Strength vs Sector-10.3%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.2)
Momentum Quality-0.013
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
18%
Moderate — watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P54
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P63
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P62
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 82 relative to sector peers82/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 78th percentileP78
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +4.3pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (81.8) + 9% ML (78.0) + SHAP(+4.3) = 85.7
Factor quality: +1.4pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 6.5%. Stability bonus of +9.1 points. Max drawdown 14% (-2.3 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.1B market cap)-8.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.6pt (conviction=100)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure — forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #85 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
FSUN61.211.25.5%17.2%$1.1B
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy1 analysts
Buy: 1
Price Target
$42consensus
Low $42Median $42High $42
+9.3% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

FirstSun Capital Bancorp operates as a bank holding company for Sunflower Bank that provides a range of commercial and consumer banking, and financial services to small and medium-sized companies. The company offers deposit products, including noninterest bearing accounts, interest-bearing demand products, checking and savings accounts, money market and term certificate accounts, and certificates of deposit. It also provides commercial and industrial, owner-occupied and non-owner occupied commercial real estate mortgage, 1-4 family, home equity, and multi-family loans, as well as consumer loans comprising direct consumer installment loans, credit card accounts, overdrafts, and other revolving loans. In addition, it provides remote deposit and cash management products; treasury management products and services; and wealth management and trust products, including personal trust and agency accounts, employee benefit and retirement related trust and agency accounts, investment management and advisory agency accounts, and foundation and endowment trust and agency accounts. It provides its services through branches in Kansas, Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, and Arizona. The company was formerly known as Sunflower Financial, Inc. and changed its name to FirstSun Capital Bancorp in June 2017. FirstSun Capital Bancorp was founded in 1892 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

CEO
Neal E. Arnold
Employees
1,127
Beta
0.29
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
37.2
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-9.3%
High: $42.34
From 52W Low
+28.3%
Low: $29.95
Moving Averages
10-Day
$38.60
Below
20-Day
$39.20
Below
50-Day
$38.80
Below
200-Day
$37.10
Above
60-Day Support
$33.41
60-Day Resistance
$42.34
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 3 — ToppingScore: 23/100

Stock is losing momentum near highs. The 200-day SMA is flattening or beginning to turn. Historically, this stage precedes distribution.

Exercise caution; tighten risk management
Price vs 200 SMA
+3.6%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+0.74%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
0.92x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
52
Confidence: 70%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$146M$147M$144M$132M
Gross Profit$104M$97M$101M$92M
Operating Income$34M$28M$33M$30M
Net Income$25M$23M$26M$24M
EPS (Diluted)$0.88$0.82$0.93$0.83
Gross Margin71.2%65.9%70.2%69.9%
Operating Margin23.4%19.2%22.9%22.5%
Net Margin17.0%15.7%18.3%17.8%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 11.2Profit margin 17.2%Valuation below sector median (P/E 11.2)

Tradability FilterGrade C — 42/100Score impact: +2.1pt

Volume
33
149K avg/day
Dollar Vol
51
$6M/day
Float
24
12M shares
Mkt Cap
41
$1.1B
Range
81
41% spread
Composite Liquidity Score42/100
FDCBA
low volumelow float

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 12/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2022$24.00$38.0045.2%Wide
2023$23.00$36.4545.2%Wide
2024$33.00$44.3729.4%Moderate
2025$29.95$45.3240.8%Wide
3-Year Range
65.3%
Narrow Years
1 / 4
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
43.9%
Outstanding Shares
28M
Bid-Ask Spread
41.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.