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MCHB

🏦 Financial Services

Mechanics Bank

Conservative #20Aggressive #4Low RiskHigh 93
$14.95+1.91%
Day High$15.07
Day Low$14.69
Volume0.2M
Mkt Cap$3.3B
52W Low $852W High $16
Market Cap
$3.4B
P/E Ratio
0.0
Sector avg: 50.1
Rev Growth
123.7%
Sector avg: 13.3%
Earnings Growth
218.2%
Profit Margin
23.2%
Sector avg: -2.1%
Debt/Equity
0.10

Why This Score

MCHB scores 77.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 23.2%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 0.0x earnings, below the market average.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.10) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • ML model assigns a high-conviction signal (97/100), indicating strong pattern recognition across 82 features.
  • High conviction (93/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Moderate penalties (-3.5 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score77.7
Fundamental Score72.2
ML Score97.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
58.7
6 Month
65.6
Primary
1 Year
69.0

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (-346.1%) — earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
61
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
58
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
73
Grade B
Base
75.2
SHAP
+2.2
Factors
+0.5
Conviction
+1.2
Divergence
-1.5
Final
77.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)82.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)87.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)67.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-0.2% to +4.1%
Medium-term
+0.6% to +7.2%
Long-term
+1.4% to +10.3%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 97

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score57.5/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage10 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score60.5/100
News Volume0 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.6%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+42.9%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.22)
Relative Strength vs Sector+46.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.520
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P99
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P92
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P34
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+1.8σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 65 relative to sector peers65/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 68th percentileP68
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +5.0pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (64.8) + 9% ML (68.4) + SHAP(+5.0) = 70.1
Factor quality: +1.2pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 7.6%Low
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($3.4B market cap)+0.5 pts
Conviction bonus: +2.8pt (conviction=93)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -8 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-346.1%) — earnings quality concern; CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure — forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #7 of 365 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
CNOB72.017.513.4%11.9%$1.4B
Sector Average45.550.113.3%-2.1%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold10 analysts
Buy: 3Hold: 7
Price Target
$14consensus
Low $14Median $14High $14
-9.7% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Mechanics Bank provides various financial services for individual clients, and small and middle-market businesses. The company offers checking and savings accounts. It also provides home and auto loans; term loans and lines of credit, multi-family lending, commercial real estate loans, owner-occupied real estate loans, equipment financing, and trade services and letters of credit; and small business administration loans. In addition, the company offers credit and debit cards; payable and receivable solutions, fraud prevention, and cash management services; merchant and payroll services, paycheck protection program solutions, and workplace benefit plans; foreign currency, cashier's checks, wire transfers, overdraft, deposit and treasury, trust and estate, investment and asset management, retirement planning, and wealth management services; and online and mobile banking services. It operates through a network of 115 branch locations in the Greater San Francisco, Sacramento, Los Angeles, and San Diego areas, as well as Central Valley in California. Mechanics Bank was founded in 1905 and is headquartered in Walnut Creek, California.

CEO
C. J. Johnson
Employees
1,800
Beta
0.21
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
42.3
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-6.7%
High: $16.02
From 52W Low
+77.8%
Low: $8.41
Moving Averages
10-Day
$15.20
Below
20-Day
$15.30
Below
50-Day
$14.80
Above
200-Day
$13.70
Above
60-Day Support
$13.96
60-Day Resistance
$16.02
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 76/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+9.1%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+11.05%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.47x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$334M$220M$91M$90M
Gross Profit$283M$114M$36M$37M
Operating Income$154M$45M$-5M$-5M
Net Income$124M$55M$-4M$-4M
EPS (Diluted)$5621.98$2915.33$-233.18$-235.98
Gross Margin85.0%51.7%39.2%40.7%
Operating Margin46.1%20.5%-5.3%-5.3%
Net Margin37.3%25.1%-4.9%-4.9%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 0.0Revenue growth 123.7%Profit margin 23.2%

Tradability FilterGrade B — 73/100Score impact: -3.4pt

Volume
87
680K avg/day
Dollar Vol
60
$10M/day
Float
60
0K shares
Mkt Cap
63
$3.4B
Range
100
90% spread
Composite Liquidity Score73/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$36.20$53.8339.2%Wide
2022$22.44$57.4087.6%Wide
2023$4.20$30.15151.1%Wide
2024$8.09$16.1066.2%Wide
2025$8.41$15.9061.6%Wide
3-Year Range
151.1%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
90.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.