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53

BFC

🏦 Financial Services

Bank First Corporation

Conservative #494Aggressive #944Low RiskModerate 61ML↑ 19pt
Market Cap
$1.6B
P/E Ratio
19.7
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
7.7%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
9.0%
Profit Margin
29.7%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.07

Why This Score

BFC scores 52.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 29.7%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Low volatility (5.8% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.07) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 15-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Net penalties of -18.4 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, BFC would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score52.6
Fundamental Score74.5
ML Score37.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
69.0
6 Month
77.1
Primary
1 Year
81.1

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
Low FCF/NI ratio (0.27) with 29.7% net margin — reported earnings may not be cash-backed

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
62
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
58
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
35
Grade Dlow volume, low float
Base
52.0
SHAP
+3.3
Factors
+0.8
Divergence
-3.4
Final
52.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)67.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)87.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)80.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-0.5% to +3.7%
Medium-term
+0.0% to +6.5%
Long-term
+0.6% to +9.3%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 37

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score58.3/100
Target Upside+7.2%
Coverage3 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score62.0/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.5%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+32.7%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.29)
Relative Strength vs Sector+37.0%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.429
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
4%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P62
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P29
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P36
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 62 relative to sector peers62/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 81th percentileP81
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +4.3pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (61.7) + 9% ML (81.1) + SHAP(+4.3) = 67.7—
Factor quality: +1.0pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 5.8%. Stability bonus of +10.4 pointsLow
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.6B market cap)-8.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -1.3pt (ML 19pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -10 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: Low FCF/NI ratio (0.27) with 29.7% net margin — reported earnings may not be cash-backed; CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure — forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #146 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
BFC52.619.77.7%29.7%$1.6B
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

No analyst sentiment data available for BFC.

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 19.7Profit margin 29.7%

Tradability FilterGrade D — 35/100Score impact: -5.6pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor — it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
5
65K avg/day
Dollar Vol
58
$9M/day
Float
13
9M shares
Mkt Cap
51
$1.6B
Range
92
65% spread
Composite Liquidity Score35/100
FDCBA
low volumelow float

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 8/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$66.64$77.0014.4%Narrow
2022$68.28$99.8437.5%Wide
2023$65.00$93.1535.6%Wide
2024$74.90$110.4938.4%Wide
2025$92.49$139.7140.7%Wide
3-Year Range
73%
Narrow Years
1 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
79.1%
Outstanding Shares
11M
Bid-Ask Spread
65.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.