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58

OCFC

🏦 Financial Services

OceanFirst Financial Corp.

Conservative #357Aggressive #886Low RiskLow 19ML↑ 40pt
$19.05+1.82%
Day High$19.12
Day Low$18.76
Volume0.4M
Mkt Cap$1.1B
52W Low $1452W High $21
Market Cap
$1.1B
P/E Ratio
15.5
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
-4.7%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
-29.1%
Profit Margin
10.7%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
1.03

Why This Score

OCFC scores 57.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Low volatility (4.7% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (15%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.03) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (-2.4 points) applied. OCFC's rank of #357 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score57.8
Fundamental Score59.8
ML Score42.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
69.4
6 Month
77.5
Primary
1 Year
81.6

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality
Quality Flags
False stability: 0.047 vol with only -4.7% revenue growth — stagnation, not safety (declining revenue overrides sector exemption)

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
49
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
63
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
72
Grade B
Base
54.2
SHAP
+3.1
Factors
+0.9
Divergence
-0.4
Final
57.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)39.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)81.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)65.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-1.2% to +5.2%
Medium-term
-1.4% to +8.4%
Long-term
-1.5% to +11.6%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 42

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score62.5/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage8 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score49.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.2%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.0%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+4.9%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.67)
Relative Strength vs Sector+6.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.2)
Momentum Quality+0.144
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
22%
Moderate — watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P12
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P39
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P64
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 41 relative to sector peers41/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 82th percentileP82
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +4.4pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (41.3) + 9% ML (81.7) + SHAP(+4.4) = 49.3—
Factor quality: +1.2pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 4.7%. Stability bonus of +12.0 pointsLow
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.1B market cap)-8.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -3.0pt (conviction=19)—
Divergence penalty: -4.6pt (ML 40pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -23 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: False stability: 0.0 vol with only -4.7% revenue growth — stagnation, not safety (declining revenue overrides sector exemption); CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure — forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #106 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
OCFC57.815.5-4.7%10.7%$1.1B
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold8 analysts
Strong Buy: 1Buy: 2Hold: 5
Price Target
$23consensus
Low $23Median $23High $23
+20.7% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

OceanFirst Financial Corp. operates as the bank holding company for OceanFirst Bank N.A. that provides community banking services. It accepts money market accounts, savings accounts, interest-bearing checking accounts, non-interest-bearing demand deposits, and time deposits to retail, government, and business customers. The company also offers commercial real estate, multi-family, land loans, construction, and commercial and industrial loans; fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgage loans that are secured by one-to-four family residences; and consumer loans, such as home equity loans and lines of credit, student loans, overdraft line of credit, loans on savings accounts, and other consumer loans. In addition, it invests in mortgage-backed securities, securities issued by the U.S. Government and agencies, corporate securities, and other investments. Further, the company offers bankcard, wealth management, and trust and asset management services; and sells alternative investment products and life insurance products. As of December 31, 2021, it operated through its branch office in Toms River; administrative office located in Red Bank and Mount Laurel; 46 additional branch offices and four deposit production facilities located throughout central and southern New Jersey; and commercial loan production offices in New Jersey, New York City, the Philadelphia area, Baltimore, and Boston. The company was founded in 1902 and is based in Red Bank, New Jersey.

CEO
Christopher D. Maher
Employees
975
Beta
1.03
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
35.6
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-7.6%
High: $20.61
From 52W Low
+33.3%
Low: $14.29
Moving Averages
10-Day
$19.30
Below
20-Day
$19.20
Below
50-Day
$19.00
Above
200-Day
$18.20
Above
60-Day Support
$17.13
60-Day Resistance
$20.61
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 64/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+4.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+3.86%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.87x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
32
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$158M$173M$165M$164M
Gross Profit$78M$98M$95M$91M
Operating Income$17M$23M$25M$28M
Net Income$13M$17M$19M$22M
EPS (Diluted)$0.23$0.30$0.28$0.35
Gross Margin49.2%56.4%57.5%55.8%
Operating Margin10.7%13.0%15.0%17.3%
Net Margin8.3%10.0%11.5%13.1%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 15.5Profit margin 10.7%

Tradability FilterGrade B — 72/100Score impact: +5.3pt

Volume
84
603K avg/day
Dollar Vol
63
$11M/day
Float
82
55M shares
Mkt Cap
42
$1.1B
Range
82
44% spread
Composite Liquidity Score72/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 8/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$18.60$25.7632.3%Moderate
2022$18.24$24.2528.3%Moderate
2023$12.01$24.9370%Wide
2024$14.03$21.8743.7%Wide
2025$14.29$20.6136.2%Wide
3-Year Range
70%
Narrow Years
1 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.49x dampening
slight revenue declinestagnation flag

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
96.7%
Outstanding Shares
57M
Bid-Ask Spread
44.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.