Back to Dashboard
73

FFIN

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

First Financial Bankshares, Inc.

Conservative #53Aggressive #335Low RiskHigh 82
$32.74+1.61%
Day High$32.86
Day Low$32.16
Volume0.4M
Mkt Cap$4.7B
52W Low $2952W High $39
Market Cap
$4.8B
P/E Ratio
18.8
Sector avg: 50.1
Rev Growth
11.7%
Sector avg: 13.3%
Earnings Growth
13.5%
Profit Margin
30.7%
Sector avg: -2.1%
Debt/Equity
0.01

Why This Score

FFIN scores 73.2 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 30.7%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Low volatility (5.8% annualized) โ€” well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.01) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (82/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.

No material penalties applied. FFIN ranks #53 based on its factor profile and ML signal alignment.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score73.2
Fundamental Score70.5
ML Score64.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
55.4
6 Month
61.9
Primary
1 Year
65.1

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
33
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
43
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
84
Grade A
Base
69.2
SHAP
+2.3
Factors
+0.6
Conviction
+1.1
Final
73.2
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)74.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)56.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)56.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-3.0% to +1.2%
Medium-term
-4.0% to +2.2%
Long-term
-5.0% to +3.1%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 64

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score43.3/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage15 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score32.7/100
News Volume0 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.1%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-0.2%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.97)
Relative Strength vs Sector-18.0%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (1.6)
Momentum Quality-0.074
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
4%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P70
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P30
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P41
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 74 relative to sector peers74/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 65th percentileP65
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.0pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (74.0) + 9% ML (65.0) + SHAP(+3.0) = 76.2โ€”
Factor quality: +0.8pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 5.8%. Stability bonus of +10.5 points. Max drawdown 19% (-4.5 pts). Price momentum -9% (-0.8 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($4.8B market cap)+0.5 pts
Conviction bonus: +1.4pt (conviction=82)โ€”
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure โ€” forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #11 of 365 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
CNOB72.017.513.4%11.9%$1.4B
Sector Average45.550.113.3%-2.1%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold15 analysts
Hold: 11Sell: 4
Price Target
$39consensus
Low $39Median $39High $39
+19.1% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

First Financial Bankshares, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides commercial banking products and services in Texas. The company accepts checking, savings and money market accounts, and time deposits; commercial and industrial, municipal, agricultural, construction and development, farm, non-owner occupied and owner-occupied commercial real estate, residential, and consumer auto and non-auto loans to businesses, professional individuals, and farm and ranch operations. It also provides drive-in and night deposit, remote deposit capture, internet and mobile banking, payroll cards, transmitting funds, and other customary commercial banking services, as well as automated teller machines and safe deposit facilities. In addition, the company offers personal trust services, including wealth management, administration of estates, testamentary trusts, revocable and irrevocable trusts, and agency accounts; and securities brokerage services, as well as administer retirements and employee benefits accounts, such as 401(k) profit-sharing plans and IRAs. Further, the company provides asset management and technology services. As of December 31, 2021, it had 78 financial centers across Texas. First Financial Bankshares, Inc. was founded in 1890 and is headquartered in Abilene, Texas.

CEO
David W. Bailey
Employees
1,400
Beta
0.84
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
35.7
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-15.5%
High: $38.74
From 52W Low
+11.2%
Low: $29.44
Moving Averages
10-Day
$33.00
Below
20-Day
$33.10
Below
50-Day
$32.20
Above
200-Day
$33.90
Below
60-Day Support
$29.44
60-Day Resistance
$35
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 24/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-3.4%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-2.59%
Falling
Volume Ratio
0.76x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
11
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$216M$210M$206M$194M
Gross Profit$165M$133M$153M$142M
Operating Income$90M$63M$82M$75M
Net Income$73M$52M$67M$61M
EPS (Diluted)$0.51$0.36$0.47$0.43
Gross Margin76.2%63.3%74.6%73.2%
Operating Margin41.4%30.0%39.7%38.8%
Net Margin33.9%24.9%32.4%31.7%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 18.8Revenue growth 11.7%Profit margin 30.7%

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 84/100Score impact: +15.7pt

Volume
93
824K avg/day
Dollar Vol
84
$26M/day
Float
100
137M shares
Mkt Cap
66
$4.8B
Range
46
32% spread
Composite Liquidity Score84/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 16/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$43.03$55.0024.4%Narrow
2022$32.53$53.6249%Wide
2023$22.84$38.2450.4%Wide
2024$27.06$44.6649.1%Wide
2025$29.80$39.1227%Moderate
3-Year Range
64.7%
Narrow Years
2 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
95.6%
Outstanding Shares
143M
Bid-Ask Spread
32.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.