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64

TCBK

🏦 Financial Services

TriCo Bancshares

Conservative #219Aggressive #711Low RiskMixed 50ML↑ 25pt
$49.67+0.91%
Day High$49.89
Day Low$48.92
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$1.6B
52W Low $3552W High $53
Market Cap
$1.6B
P/E Ratio
13.5
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
1.8%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
5.8%
Profit Margin
22.8%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.08

Why This Score

TCBK scores 64.1 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 22.8%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 13.5x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (5.0% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.08) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (19%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Moderate penalties (-7.3 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score64.1
Fundamental Score73.6
ML Score43.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
70.5
6 Month
78.8
Primary
1 Year
82.9

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality
Quality Flags
False stability: 0.050 vol with only 1.8% revenue growth — stagnation, not safety

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
54
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
63
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
51
Grade Clow volume
Base
62.4
SHAP
+3.3
Factors
+0.8
Divergence
-2.3
Final
64.1
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)65.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)83.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)79.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-0.4% to +3.8%
Medium-term
-0.0% to +6.5%
Long-term
+0.4% to +9.1%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 43

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score62.5/100
Target Upside+9.5%
Coverage12 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score54.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.2%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+6.3%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.66)
Relative Strength vs Sector+9.9%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.7)
Momentum Quality+0.182
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
12%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P44
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P47
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P47
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 59 relative to sector peers59/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 84th percentileP84
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +4.3pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (58.6) + 9% ML (83.6) + SHAP(+4.3) = 65.1—
Factor quality: +1.0pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 5.0%. Stability bonus of +12.0 pointsLow
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.6B market cap)-8.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -2.2pt (ML 25pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -17 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: False stability: 0.1 vol with only 1.8% revenue growth — stagnation, not safety; CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure — forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #68 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
TCBK64.113.51.8%22.8%$1.6B
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy12 analysts
Buy: 6Hold: 6
Price Target
$54consensus
Low $46Median $55High $59
+7.7% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

TriCo Bancshares operates as a bank holding company for Tri Counties Bank that provides commercial banking services to individual and corporate customers. The company accepts demand, savings, and time deposits. It also provides small business loans; real estate mortgage loans, such as residential and commercial loans; consumer loans; commercial loans, including agricultural loans; and real estate construction loans. In addition, the company offers treasury management services; and other customary banking services, including safe deposit boxes; and independent financial and broker-dealer services. It operates 61 traditional branches, 7 in-store branches, and 7 loan production offices in 31 counties throughout California. The company was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Chico, California.

CEO
Richard Smith
Employees
1,194
Beta
0.63
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
31.8
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-6.6%
High: $53.18
From 52W Low
+41.1%
Low: $35.2
Moving Averages
10-Day
$50.10
Below
20-Day
$50.60
Below
50-Day
$49.60
Above
200-Day
$44.90
Above
60-Day Support
$46.05
60-Day Resistance
$53.18
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 71/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+10.6%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+6.51%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.21x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
88
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$137M$136M$132M$128M
Gross Profit$109M$105M$97M$93M
Operating Income$50M$46M$38M$35M
Net Income$34M$34M$28M$26M
EPS (Diluted)$1.03$1.04$0.84$0.80
Gross Margin79.7%77.1%73.8%72.5%
Operating Margin36.1%34.1%28.7%27.6%
Net Margin24.5%25.0%20.9%20.5%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 13.5Profit margin 22.8%Valuation below sector median (P/E 13.5)

Tradability FilterGrade C — 51/100Score impact: +4.7pt

Volume
29
137K avg/day
Dollar Vol
53
$7M/day
Float
61
31M shares
Mkt Cap
52
$1.6B
Range
86
51% spread
Composite Liquidity Score51/100
FDCBA
low volume

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 11/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$38.37$51.6629.5%Moderate
2022$37.41$58.6244.2%Wide
2023$28.66$52.6659%Wide
2024$31.73$51.0646.7%Wide
2025$35.20$50.6135.9%Wide
3-Year Range
59%
Narrow Years
1 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
stagnation flag

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
94.6%
Outstanding Shares
33M
Bid-Ask Spread
51.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.