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FRME

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

First Merchants Corporation

Conservative #412Aggressive #840Low RiskLow 31MLโ†‘ 34pt
$41.13+1.81%
Day High$41.23
Day Low$40.24
Volume0.4M
Mkt Cap$2.6B
52W Low $3352W High $44
Market Cap
$2.7B
P/E Ratio
10.8
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
-0.3%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
12.2%
Profit Margin
21.5%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.41

Why This Score

FRME scores 55.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 21.5%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 10.8x earnings, below the market average.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Moderate penalties (-3.3 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score55.6
Fundamental Score59.6
ML Score36.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
74.7
6 Month
83.5
Primary
1 Year
87.8

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
20
Topping
Sentiment (2.5%)
55
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
71
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
66
Grade B
Base
52.9
SHAP
+3.2
Factors
+0.8
Divergence
-1.3
Final
55.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)62.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)62.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)81.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-1.0% to +5.5%
Medium-term
-1.1% to +8.8%
Long-term
-1.2% to +12.1%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 36

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score70.5/100
Target Upside+21.2%
Coverage11 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score54.7/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage3 โ€” Topping
12M Momentum-0.0%
6M Momentum+0.0%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-3.6%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.14)
Relative Strength vs Sector-9.3%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.1)
Momentum Quality-0.004
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
40%
High risk โ€” cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P21
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P67
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P76
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
YES
Below-sector growth + cheap PE
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 55 relative to sector peers55/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 90th percentileP90
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +5.0pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (55.2) + 9% ML (89.5) + SHAP(+5.0) = 63.3โ€”
Factor quality: +1.3pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 6.5%. Stability bonus of +9.0 points. Max drawdown 14% (-2.3 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: -4.0 points ($2.7B market cap)-4.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -1.8pt (conviction=31)โ€”
Divergence penalty: -3.7pt (ML 34pt higher)โ€”
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure โ€” forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #125 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
FRME55.610.8-0.3%21.5%$2.7B
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy11 analysts
Buy: 9Hold: 2
Price Target
$49consensus
Low $49Median $49High $49
+19.1% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

First Merchants Corporation operates as the financial holding company for First Merchants Bank that provides community banking services. It accepts time, savings, and demand deposits; and provides consumer, commercial, agri-business, and real estate mortgage loans, as well as public finance. The company also offers personal and corporate trust; brokerage and private wealth management; and letters of credit, repurchase agreements, and other corporate services. It operates 109 banking locations in Indiana, Illinois, Ohio, and Michigan counties. The company also offers its services through electronic and mobile delivery channels. First Merchants Corporation was founded in 1893 and is headquartered in Muncie, Indiana.

CEO
Mark K. Hardwick
Employees
2,120
Beta
0.93
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
44.4
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-7.2%
High: $44.33
From 52W Low
+24.1%
Low: $33.13
Moving Averages
10-Day
$41.70
Below
20-Day
$41.30
Below
50-Day
$39.50
Above
200-Day
$38.60
Above
60-Day Support
$36.6
60-Day Resistance
$43.22
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 3 โ€” ToppingScore: 32/100

Stock is losing momentum near highs. The 200-day SMA is flattening or beginning to turn. Historically, this stage precedes distribution.

Exercise caution; tighten risk management
Price vs 200 SMA
+6.6%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-0.16%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
1.23x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
19
Confidence: 70%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$270M$268M$261M$253M
Gross Profit$164M$162M$159M$156M
Operating Income$65M$65M$65M$63M
Net Income$57M$57M$57M$55M
EPS (Diluted)$0.99$0.98$0.98$0.94
Gross Margin60.9%60.5%60.8%61.8%
Operating Margin24.3%24.4%24.9%25.0%
Net Margin21.2%21.2%21.8%21.9%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 10.8Profit margin 21.5%

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 66/100Score impact: +10.0pt

Volume
62
319K avg/day
Dollar Vol
66
$13M/day
Float
82
56M shares
Mkt Cap
61
$2.7B
Range
55
34% spread
Composite Liquidity Score66/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 11/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$37.67$50.6529.4%Moderate
2022$34.07$46.1230.1%Moderate
2023$24.52$43.9756.8%Wide
2024$30.55$46.1340.6%Wide
2025$33.13$45.6231.7%Moderate
3-Year Range
61.2%
Narrow Years
1 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.49x dampening
weinstein basingslight revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
88.8%
Outstanding Shares
63M
Bid-Ask Spread
34.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.