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LKFN

🏦 Financial Services

Lakeland Financial Corporation

Conservative #270Aggressive #772Low RiskHigh 98
$59.34+2.28%
Day High$59.46
Day Low$57.82
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$1.5B
52W Low $5052W High $69
Market Cap
$1.5B
P/E Ratio
14.9
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
-1.9%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
10.6%
Profit Margin
24.5%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.24

Why This Score

LKFN scores 61.2 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 24.5%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 14.9x earnings, below the market average.
  • High conviction (98/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.

Moderate penalties (-5.0 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score61.2
Fundamental Score63.8
ML Score56.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
55.5
6 Month
62.0
Primary
1 Year
65.3

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
50
Basing
Sentiment (2.5%)
46
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
58
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
51
Grade Clow volume
Base
57.2
SHAP
+1.7
Factors
+0.3
Conviction
+1.9
Final
61.2
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)65.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)58.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)76.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-4.3% to +1.9%
Medium-term
-6.0% to +3.3%
Long-term
-7.6% to +4.7%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 56

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score57.5/100
Target Upside+15.0%
Coverage10 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score45.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage1 — Basing
12M Momentum-0.0%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+4.4%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.50)
Relative Strength vs Sector-13.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.7)
Momentum Quality-0.036
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
14%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P16
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P40
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P42
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 66 relative to sector peers66/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 65th percentileP65
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.0pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (66.0) + 9% ML (65.1) + SHAP(+3.0) = 68.9
Factor quality: +0.6pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 6.6%. Stability bonus of +8.7 points. Max drawdown 17% (-3.5 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.5B market cap)-8.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.4pt (conviction=98)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -8 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (21.5%) — earnings quality concern; CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure — forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #87 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
LKFN61.214.9-1.9%24.5%$1.5B
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold10 analysts
Buy: 3Hold: 7
Price Target
$67consensus
Low $66Median $67High $68
+12.9% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Lakeland Financial Corporation operates as the bank holding company for Lake City Bank that provides various banking products and services. The company accepts various deposit products, such as noninterest bearing, interest-bearing checking, savings, money market, NOW, and demand deposits. Its loan products include commercial and industrial, commercial real estate and multi-family residential, agri-business and agricultural, consumer 1-4 family mortgage, and other consumer loans. The company also offers retail and merchant credit card services; corporate treasury management, wealth advisory, and trust services; retail brokerage services, including various financial and investment products, such as annuities and life insurance; and mobile business banking and on-line treasury management services. It serves commercial real estate, manufacturing, agriculture, construction, retail, wholesale, finance and insurance, accommodation and food services, and health care industries. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated 51 offices in fifteen counties, including 45 offices in northern Indiana and six offices in central Indiana. Lakeland Financial Corporation was founded in 1872 and is headquartered in Warsaw, Indiana.

CEO
David Findlay
Employees
647
Beta
0.73
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
30.7
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-14.5%
High: $69.4
From 52W Low
+18.7%
Low: $50
Moving Averages
10-Day
$60.20
Below
20-Day
$60.70
Below
50-Day
$59.50
Below
200-Day
$61.40
Below
60-Day Support
$55.6
60-Day Resistance
$63.8
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 1 — BasingScore: 46/100

Stock is building a base after a decline. The 200-day moving average is flattening. Watch for a breakout above the 200-day SMA on increased volume.

Monitor for breakout above 200-day SMA on volume
Transition signal: 1→2
Price vs 200 SMA
-3.4%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-0.18%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
0.91x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
6
Confidence: 80%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$107M$108M$106M$101M
Gross Profit$70M$67M$63M$57M
Operating Income$36M$32M$33M$24M
Net Income$30M$26M$27M$20M
EPS (Diluted)$1.16$1.03$1.04$0.78
Gross Margin65.5%62.2%59.8%56.2%
Operating Margin34.1%29.7%31.1%23.9%
Net Margin28.1%24.5%25.5%19.8%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 14.9Profit margin 24.5%

Tradability FilterGrade C — 51/100Score impact: +5.1pt

Volume
42
175K avg/day
Dollar Vol
61
$10M/day
Float
40
0K shares
Mkt Cap
50
$1.5B
Range
75
39% spread
Composite Liquidity Score51/100
FDCBA
low volume

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 12/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$56.06$80.7736.1%Wide
2022$64.05$85.7128.9%Moderate
2023$43.05$77.0756.6%Wide
2024$57.45$78.6131.1%Moderate
2025$50.00$71.7735.8%Wide
3-Year Range
58.5%
Narrow Years
1 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.49x dampening
weinstein basingslight revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
39.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.