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54

MBIN

🏦 Financial Services

Merchants Bancorp

Conservative #462Aggressive #481Low RiskMixed 59ML↑ 21pt
$43.29+1.69%
Day High$43.36
Day Low$42.69
Volume0.2M
Mkt Cap$2.0B
52W Low $2752W High $49
Market Cap
$2.1B
P/E Ratio
9.5
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
-5.7%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
-31.7%
Profit Margin
16.1%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
1.68

Why This Score

MBIN scores 53.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 9.5x earnings, below the market average.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (18%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (10.9%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.68) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Moderate penalties (-4.9 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score53.8
Fundamental Score48.9
ML Score83.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
52.3
6 Month
58.4
Primary
1 Year
61.5

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
51
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
68
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
64
Grade B
Base
53.8
SHAP
+2.4
Factors
+0.5
Divergence
-2.9
Final
53.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)42.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)81.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)55.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-2.7% to +1.4%
Medium-term
-3.5% to +2.6%
Long-term
-4.2% to +3.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 83

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score67.9/100
Target Upside-5.5%
Coverage7 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score50.7/100
News Volume0 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.2%
6M Momentum+0.5%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-29.4%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.38)
Relative Strength vs Sector+9.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (1.7)
Momentum Quality+0.146
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
20%
Moderate — watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P11
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P76
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P30
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
-0.2σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
YES
Below-sector growth + cheap PE

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 41 relative to sector peers41/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 61th percentileP61
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (40.8) + 9% ML (61.4) + SHAP(+2.4) = 45.1—
Factor quality: +0.5pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 10.9%. Max drawdown 20% (-4.9 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: -4.0 points ($2.1B market cap)-4.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -1.5pt (ML 21pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -10 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (81.1%) — earnings quality concern; CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure — forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentals; High leverage: D/E ratio of 1.7x — elevated balance sheet riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #140 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
MBIN53.89.5-5.7%16.1%$2.1B
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy7 analysts
Buy: 5Hold: 2
Price Target
$41consensus
Low $39Median $41High $42
-6.4% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Merchants Bancorp operates as the diversified bank holding company in the United States. The company operates through Multi-family Mortgage Banking, Mortgage Warehousing, and Banking segments. The Multi-family Mortgage Banking segment originates and services government sponsored mortgages for multi-family and healthcare facilities. This segment also offers customized loan products for independent living, assisted living, memory care, and skilled nursing projects; and operates as a syndicator of low-income housing tax credit and debt funds. The Mortgage Warehousing segment funds agency eligible residential loans, including origination, purchase, and sale in the secondary market, as well as commercial loans to non-depository financial institutions. The Banking segment offers a range of financial products and services to consumers and businesses, such as various types of deposit products, as well as multi-family construction and bridge, commercial real estate, commercial and industrial, agricultural, residential mortgage, and consumer loan products. This segment also provides single-family mortgage lending; construction, bridge, and lot financing; first-lien home equity lines of credit; and small business administration lending products and services. Merchants Bancorp was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Carmel, Indiana.

CEO
Michael F. Petrie
Employees
663
Beta
1.26
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
52.1
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-10.7%
High: $48.5
From 52W Low
+58.9%
Low: $27.25
Moving Averages
10-Day
$45.50
Below
20-Day
$43.70
Below
50-Day
$38.50
Above
200-Day
$34.00
Above
60-Day Support
$32.31
60-Day Resistance
$48.5
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 75/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+27.3%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+1.33%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
1.01x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
57
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$355M$344M$354M$310M
Gross Profit$158M$141M$125M$137M
Operating Income$74M$65M$49M$76M
Net Income$68M$55M$38M$58M
EPS (Diluted)$1.28$0.97$0.60$0.93
Gross Margin44.4%40.9%35.3%44.3%
Operating Margin20.8%18.8%13.8%24.7%
Net Margin19.1%15.9%10.7%18.8%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 9.5Profit margin 16.1%

Tradability FilterGrade B — 64/100Score impact: -16.9pt

Volume
61
308K avg/day
Dollar Vol
67
$13M/day
Float
51
21M shares
Mkt Cap
60
$2.1B
Range
99
78% spread
Composite Liquidity Score64/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$22.51$33.0037.8%Wide
2022$21.52$33.5743.7%Wide
2023$21.50$43.8968.5%Wide
2024$35.56$53.2739.9%Wide
2025$27.25$43.8246.6%Wide
3-Year Range
85%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.5x dampening
revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
45.2%
Outstanding Shares
46M
Bid-Ask Spread
78.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.