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63

SRCE

🏦 Financial Services

1st Source Corporation

Conservative #233Aggressive #655Low RiskHigh 100
$69.31+1.64%
Day High$69.34
Day Low$68.13
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$1.7B
52W Low $5252W High $72
Market Cap
$1.7B
P/E Ratio
10.9
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
5.2%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
19.3%
Profit Margin
26.4%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.27

Why This Score

SRCE scores 63.4 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 26.4%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 10.9x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (4.7% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (12%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
  • High conviction (100/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Moderate penalties (-7.9 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score63.4
Fundamental Score74.1
ML Score40.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
79.3
6 Month
88.7
Primary
1 Year
93.3

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
52
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
56
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
42
Grade Clow volume, low float
Base
62.3
SHAP
+2.0
Factors
+0.6
Conviction
+1.4
Divergence
-2.9
Final
63.4
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)72.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)80.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)77.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+5.4% to +10.6%
Medium-term
+9.1% to +17.0%
Long-term
+13.7% to +24.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 40

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score56.3/100
Target Upside+15.5%
Coverage4 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score51.6/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.0%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+0.5%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.96)
Relative Strength vs Sector+3.1%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.6)
Momentum Quality+0.111
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
26%
Moderate — watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P53
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P66
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P84
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 81 relative to sector peers81/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 82th percentileP82
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +5.0pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (81.4) + 9% ML (81.8) + SHAP(+5.0) = 86.4
Factor quality: +1.4pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 4.7%. Stability bonus of +12.0 pointsLow
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.7B market cap)-8.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.6pt (conviction=100)
Sector diversity: -18.0pt (Financial Services over-represented)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -8 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-41.3%) — earnings quality concern; CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure — forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #73 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
SRCE63.410.95.2%26.4%$1.7B
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold4 analysts
Buy: 1Hold: 3
Price Target
$79consensus
Low $74Median $79High $83
+13.3% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

1st Source Corporation operates as the bank holding company for 1st Source Bank that provides commercial and consumer banking services, trust and wealth advisory services, and insurance products to individual and business clients. Its consumer banking services include checking and savings accounts; certificates of deposit; individual retirement accounts; online and mobile banking products; consumer loans, real estate mortgage loans, and home equity lines of credit; and financial planning, financial literacy, and other consultative services, as well as debit and credit cards. The company also offers commercial, small business, agricultural, and real estate loans for general corporate purposes, including financing for industrial and commercial properties, equipment, inventories, accounts receivables, and renewable energy and acquisition financing; and commercial leasing, treasury management, and retirement planning services. In addition, it provides trust, investment, agency, and custodial services comprising administration of estates and personal trusts, as well as management of investment accounts for individuals, employee benefit plans, and charitable foundations. Further, the company offers equipment loan and lease products for construction equipment, new and pre-owned aircraft, auto and light trucks, and medium and heavy duty trucks; and finances construction equipment, aircrafts, medium and heavy duty trucks, step vans, vocational work trucks, motor coaches, shuttle buses, funeral cars, automobiles, and other equipment. Additionally, it provides corporate and personal property, casualty, and individual and group health and life insurance products and services. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated through 79 banking centers in 18 counties in Indiana and Michigan, as well as Sarasota County in Florida. 1st Source Corporation was founded in 1863 and is headquartered in South Bend, Indiana.

CEO
Andrea Gayle Short
Employees
1,205
Beta
0.62
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
48.7
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-3.7%
High: $71.98
From 52W Low
+32.9%
Low: $52.14
Moving Averages
10-Day
$69.70
Below
20-Day
$69.10
Above
50-Day
$66.50
Above
200-Day
$63.00
Above
60-Day Support
$60.3
60-Day Resistance
$71.98
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 66/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+10%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+2.8%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.99x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
64
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$151M$153M$150M$146M
Gross Profit$111M$110M$101M$101M
Operating Income$54M$55M$48M$48M
Net Income$41M$42M$37M$38M
EPS (Diluted)$1.69$1.71$1.51$1.52
Gross Margin73.6%71.8%66.9%68.8%
Operating Margin36.1%36.0%32.0%32.6%
Net Margin27.3%27.7%24.8%25.6%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 10.9Profit margin 26.4%Valuation below sector median (P/E 10.9)

Tradability FilterGrade C — 42/100Score impact: -1.3pt

Volume
17
101K avg/day
Dollar Vol
54
$7M/day
Float
43
18M shares
Mkt Cap
53
$1.7B
Range
72
38% spread
Composite Liquidity Score42/100
FDCBA
low volumelow float

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 29/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$41.19$51.2021.7%Narrow
2022$42.29$59.9434.5%Moderate
2023$38.77$56.5937.4%Wide
2024$47.30$68.1336.1%Wide
2025$52.14$67.7726.1%Moderate
3-Year Range
54.9%
Narrow Years
2 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
73.2%
Outstanding Shares
24M
Bid-Ask Spread
38.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.