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70

GABC

🏦 Financial Services

German American Bancorp, Inc.

Conservative #81Aggressive #227Low RiskHigh 100
$42.93+0.68%
Day High$42.93
Day Low$42.12
Volume0.0M
Mkt Cap$1.6B
52W Low $3352W High $45
Market Cap
$1.6B
P/E Ratio
14.5
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
54.5%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
34.4%
Profit Margin
23.1%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.02

Why This Score

GABC scores 71.1 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 23.1%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 14.5x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (4.1% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.02) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (12%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
  • High conviction (100/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.

Moderate penalties (-5.0 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score71.1
Fundamental Score74.4
ML Score63.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
78.0
6 Month
87.2
Primary
1 Year
91.8

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
49
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
54
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
49
Grade Clow volume
Base
67.1
SHAP
+2.0
Factors
+0.5
Conviction
+1.5
Final
71.1
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)76.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)79.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)76.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+3.3% to +8.2%
Medium-term
+5.9% to +13.4%
Long-term
+8.5% to +18.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 63

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score53.6/100
Target Upside+12.4%
Coverage7 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score49.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.0%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+6.6%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.46)
Relative Strength vs Sector+3.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (3.0)
Momentum Quality+0.114
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
2%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P94
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P41
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P67
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.8σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 73 relative to sector peers73/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 77th percentileP77
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +5.0pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (73.2) + 9% ML (77.1) + SHAP(+5.0) = 78.6
Factor quality: +1.2pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 4.1%. Stability bonus of +12.0 pointsLow
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.6B market cap)-8.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.6pt (conviction=100)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -8 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-45.1%) — earnings quality concern; CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure — forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #20 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
GABC71.114.554.5%23.1%$1.6B
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold7 analysts
Buy: 1Hold: 6
Price Target
$47consensus
Low $47Median $47High $47
+9.5% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

German American Bancorp, Inc. operates as a bank holding company for German American Bank that provides retail and commercial banking services. The company operates through three segments: Core Banking, Wealth Management Services, and Insurance Operations. The Core Banking segment accepts deposits from the general public; and originates consumer, commercial and agricultural, commercial and agricultural real estate, and residential mortgage loans, as well as sells residential mortgage loans in the secondary market. The Wealth Management segment provides trust, investment advisory, brokerage, and retirement planning services. The Insurance Operations segment offers a range of personal and corporate property and casualty insurance products. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated 77 banking offices in 19 contiguous southern Indiana counties; and 14 counties in Kentucky. German American Bancorp, Inc. was founded in 1910 and is based in Jasper, Indiana.

CEO
D. Neil Dauby
Employees
1,020
Beta
0.65
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
32.4
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-5.6%
High: $45
From 52W Low
+29.6%
Low: $32.75
Moving Averages
10-Day
$42.90
Below
20-Day
$43.10
Below
50-Day
$41.40
Above
200-Day
$40.00
Above
60-Day Support
$38.55
60-Day Resistance
$45
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 63/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+6.2%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+2.6%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.65x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
30
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$127M$127M$123M$111M
Gross Profit$94M$93M$89M$66M
Operating Income$44M$44M$39M$13M
Net Income$36M$35M$31M$11M
EPS (Diluted)$0.95$0.94$0.86$0.30
Gross Margin74.0%73.9%72.0%59.5%
Operating Margin34.6%34.6%31.8%12.0%
Net Margin28.2%27.7%25.5%9.5%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 14.5Revenue growth 54.5%Profit margin 23.1%

Tradability FilterGrade C — 49/100Score impact: +1.1pt

Volume
29
136K avg/day
Dollar Vol
51
$6M/day
Float
66
36M shares
Mkt Cap
51
$1.6B
Range
70
37% spread
Composite Liquidity Score49/100
FDCBA
low volume

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 19/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$34.30$51.1139.4%Wide
2022$32.76$41.7524.1%Narrow
2023$24.85$40.7048.4%Wide
2024$30.26$47.0843.5%Wide
2025$32.75$43.2027.5%Moderate
3-Year Range
61.8%
Narrow Years
2 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
95.8%
Outstanding Shares
37M
Bid-Ask Spread
37.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.