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61

STBA

🏦 Financial Services

S&T Bancorp, Inc.

Conservative #267Aggressive #764Low RiskMixed 44ML↑ 28pt
Market Cap
$1.7B
P/E Ratio
12.9
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
0.6%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
2.3%
Profit Margin
23.6%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.18

Why This Score

STBA scores 61.4 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 23.6%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 12.9x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (4.9% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (13%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Moderate penalties (-7.2 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score61.4
Fundamental Score70.5
ML Score41.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
71.9
6 Month
80.3
Primary
1 Year
84.6

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (-748.6%) — earnings quality concern
False stability: 0.049 vol with only 0.6% revenue growth — stagnation, not safety

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
46
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
60
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
59
Grade C
Base
59.6
SHAP
+3.2
Factors
+0.8
Divergence
-2.2
Final
61.4
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)63.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)81.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)51.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+0.5% to +5.0%
Medium-term
+1.5% to +8.2%
Long-term
+2.4% to +11.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 41

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score60.4/100
Target Upside-6.6%
Coverage12 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score45.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.0%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-0.0%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (1.00)
Relative Strength vs Sector+4.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.8)
Momentum Quality+0.126
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
21%
Moderate — watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P41
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P51
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P70
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 58 relative to sector peers58/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 86th percentileP86
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +5.0pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (57.8) + 9% ML (85.8) + SHAP(+5.0) = 65.3—
Factor quality: +1.2pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 4.9%. Stability bonus of +12.0 pointsLow
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.7B market cap)-8.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -0.6pt (conviction=44)—
Divergence penalty: -2.7pt (ML 28pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -24 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-748.6%) — earnings quality concern; False stability: 0.0 vol with only 0.6% revenue growth — stagnation, not safety; CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure — forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #84 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
STBA61.412.90.6%23.6%$1.7B
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

No analyst sentiment data available for STBA.

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 12.9Profit margin 23.6%

Tradability FilterGrade C — 59/100Score impact: +4.4pt

Volume
50
202K avg/day
Dollar Vol
57
$9M/day
Float
68
38M shares
Mkt Cap
53
$1.7B
Range
83
45% spread
Composite Liquidity Score59/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 14/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$27.02$35.8028%Moderate
2022$26.51$38.3936.6%Wide
2023$24.51$38.4344.2%Wide
2024$28.83$45.7945.5%Wide
2025$30.84$42.9532.8%Moderate
3-Year Range
60.5%
Narrow Years
1 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
stagnation flag

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
98.7%
Outstanding Shares
38M
Bid-Ask Spread
45.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.